RADIO
T1 did it again, I went to sleep before the starting lineups dropped, and they went off at zero ownership. Other than that, it was a productive night with BLG, TES, BRO, and RA winning as predicted. TES couldn't sweep, but given their pricing on DK, that was fine. RA ran IG around the map and didn't score great, but a sweep at dog prices was also lovely. We'll have our last five-game tonight as the spring split draws to a close.
Can SBG keep their hot streak going in the LCK versus HLE? DWG will certainly spank NSRF, and in the LPL, more playoff implications are on the line. LNG and OMG open the slate with a competitive match. Suddenly surging, Suning take on WE with playoff seeding on the line. In our game of the night, Zoom will look to defend his title of best top laner in the LPL against Xiaohu as RNG takes on JDG.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 14th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: Liiv SBG (+230) vs. Hanwa Life Esports (-325)
Sandbox's wins over Gen G and KT have made them a bit of a hot commodity in this game, and their odds are improving versus HLE. HLE recently lost to that same Gen G squad and can be hard to get a gauge on. Let's see how this one stacks up.
Even with the recent hot streak from SBG, Hanwa retains the statistical edge both early and late. SBG has a better rift herald percentage, but they have been unable to convert that into meaningful leads. HLE has better GD@15, first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and first drake numbers. All of which makes sense to me. The only advantage I would give over to SBG is jungle (it's close) and top lane. Summit has returned to form on this side of the LNY break, and I think Croco is a very promising young jungler.
The rest of the map falls heavily in favor of HLE. Chovy will do Chovy things and is second in the LCK in damage per minute. Who's first, you ask? It's Deft, and so no matter how much I bag on him for being dust, he will be a significant win condition for HLE in this match. Add that Vsta versus Effort's support matchup, and I think the bottom half of the map is a lock for HLE. Hanwa does have heavy red/blue splits, but I don't believe it will come into play in this match.
There is a LOT of green in the kill projections for this slate, and HLE is no different. SBG average 17 deaths per loss, and that has held constant post-break. Sometimes I worry about using post LNY stats due to a small sample size, but then I recall these teams have played 12 and 14 games post-break. The LCS and LEC teams have played 15 and 17 games, all split thus far. God bless the best of three, as an aside. Back to the matchup at hand, I have HLE with the third-highest projection among the favorites tonight. DK did an excellent job with their dynamic pricing putting the most critical HLE pieces at the top.
Top HLE Plays
- Deft - ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics since break.
- Chovy - MID - narrowly third in KP% and second in KS%.
- Vsta - SUP - second in KP%.
6:00 AM: DWG (-1000) vs. NSRF (+550)
Nongshim are neck and neck for the final playoff spot with KT Rolster. Given the way KT has been playing of late, that should be a shoo-in for the side of NSRF. Damwon are still clearly the class of this league, and despite dropping games to T1 and HLE recently still have only the one match lost.
DWG dominates all the stats here, both pre and post-break. I've got DWG for over 18 kills per win, and I believe they sweep this matchup. They are priced appropriately across the board on DraftKings. One caveat for everyone to remember is that while Nongshim started the year with some massive death games, they calmed down past break. Pre-break, they had an insane 23 deaths per loss; post-break, it is a manageable 17.6. This change would drop the DWG kill projection from second to third among the favorites, with over a half a kill subtracted from their team total. If you're looking to fade DWG, this and their BRO match scores should be more than enough ammo to justify it.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG - second in both kill metrics post-LNY.
- Ghost - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Beryl - SUP - first in KP%.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: OMG (+250) vs. LNG (-350)
Both teams have played similar schedules post-break and have come out with similar results. LNG has lost to EDG, TES, and RNG but beaten LGD and V5 since break. All expected results. OMG lost to RA, WE, TES, and V5, beating only RW. It is also somewhat expected, but with taking games from RA and WE, they have shown signs of punching up. LNG is currently ninth at 6-6, and OMG is 14th at 2-10, but since the break, both teams have only won four games, losing seven and eight, respectively.
As I suspected, since the break, the stats are relatively close. LNG has a better economy and holds the edge in GD@15 despite OMG having better first blood, rift herald, and first turret stats. OMG curiously has an advantage in both total drakes and baron percentage along with slightly better vision stats. The team stats are close, and I'll give a slight edge over to OMG. The only clear advantage in the player's talent level is, I think, in the mid lane. OMG should be able to compete everywhere else.
Looking at the kill projections, I've got LNG at the lowest total for the favorites. I think you can all guess what's coming here. OMG are the second-highest projection of anyone on the slate. They have outstanding team kill participation with 2.4 kills as well. Goddammit, I kinda like OMG in this spot. The team stats are close, the players are tight, and the numbers point me on to a dog or pass approach.
Top LNG Plays:
- Eric - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Wuming - MID - good numbers into a bad matchup.
- COLD - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
- New - TOP - nearly 70% KP in the team's wins.
4:00 AM: SNG (-135) vs. WE (+105)
Both teams have been on a tear since the lunar new year break. SNG dropped their first game back to JDG but are undefeated since then. WE got a gift from FPX with the emergency Tian game in their opener, but since then have continued that momentum in EZdubs over Estar, LGD, and OMG. With the remaining schedule for WE, they must win this match. SNG would love to pick up the win here, but given their remaining games can afford to drop this one.
Looking at the post-break stats, the teams are virtually indistinguishable. The only significant lead is for SNG in the vision numbers. Going up and down the lanes leaves us scratching our heads as well. These teams are very evenly matched. I like Angel over Shanks in the mid lane and Huangfeng over Juimeng in bot. Even ON, who was not impressive to start the season, has reeled it in a bit.
With a few minor advantages and having a blue side for the matchup, I like SNG here. The kill projections favor them since WE tends to be more scrappy in their losses than SNG. They are also priced lower than the other favorites, given their odds. WE are live here and will look to win the same way JDG did with better skirmishing and team fighting. The problem is that WE's bottom lane tends to be overaggressive. SNG's patience should be the key. Give me them to win in a hard-fought 2-1.
Top SNG Plays:
- Huanfeng - ADC - Team sex leads the way with 69% kill participation 42.6% of his team's kills post-break.
- Angel - MID - best matchup of anyone.
- SofM - JNG - tied for first in KP% and second in KS%.
6:00 AM: RNG (-285) vs. JDG (+210)
With another instant classic from the LPL in the late game, Honestly, how stacked is the top of this league. I've pretty candidly referred to the LCK as Damwon and dogshit throughout the split. We've seen what the top teams in the west are worth. C9, G2, Rogue, FNC..... please, all would struggle to make the playoffs in the LPL. Down to the business at hand, JDG and RNG. JDG has been heating up after a classic slow start, and RNG continues to cruise along.
Royal has been the better early game team and indeed the more active team on the map. RNG has the edge in rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, first drake, and GD@15. RNG also leads in total drakes and barons, with the vision numbers between the teams being equal in vision numbers. If RNG can stick to their game plan of moving JDG around the map, they should win this matchup. If, however, JDG can stay close and break the game down into multiple team fights, they can beat anyone on earth.
I like RNG here as their win condition is easier to achieve. They just need to stick to their gameplan and not allow JDG to drag them down into the muck. JDG set the blueprint for beating RNG last year when they beat Estar 2-0 in the spring. Kanavi was able to balance and outpace Wei in the early game. This allowed JDG to stay close and then win important team fights. This RNG team is more talented than the Estar team that played a very similar style and also featured Wei and Cryin. RNG has the highest projection on the slate for kills, and they will be popular. JDG's predictions aren't as high, but they are cheap and will give you some good leverage if you're bold.
Top RNG plays
- With a fantastic team KP% and 2.4 assists per kill, anyone you can fit from RNG is the best play.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-0, DWG 2-0, OMG 2-1, SNG 2-1, RNG 2-0. All three LPL dogs are live, and those matches are tough to predict. LNG with the lowest projection puts me onto OMG.
- These last few weeks of LPL play will be critical to the teams as the playoff bracket is GRUELING. I don't think we'll see many teams overlooking any matchup as every win is precious.
- It is worth noting the LPL is 100% back into their stadiums and in front of live crowds. This could put more pressure on some of the younger players and rookies who haven't faced this yet this year or even most of last year.
- The last five-game slate for the spring split let's go out with a bang!
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