RADIO
Pretty happy I slept through the games last night. After seeing my scores today, I'll be so glad to rewatch them at 1.5x speed and not be emotionally involved. As our spring split winds down and teams become more desperate to secure a playoff position, I'm sure we'll be in for some more shenanigans before the final seedings are set.
The LPL brings us some more tight matchups that could go either way and have massive playoff implications. IG/RA and TES/EDG should be bangers, and as usual, the opener is less so with BLG facing RW. LCK has one top-five matchup in Gen G/T1 and one not so much with AFS/BRO. With some big-time kill projections in the LPL, this slate is sure to have some fireworks.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: Gen G (-250) vs. T1 (+185)
Gen G coming in off their loss to Liiv SBG are gaining steam from Vegas heading into this matchup. They have gone from 65% implied win odds to 72%, and this is something to monitor between now and lock to see where ownership will end up. With a full five-game slate tonight, you could go the other direction and not worry about it fading this matchup and avoiding the headache. T1 has been up and down, and the ten-man lineup has seemed to be more of a detriment than anything.
On the upside, they will be the early game, and we will have the confirmed lineup about 15-20 minutes pre-lock, so I won't have to spend the day combing thru Korean Solo Q game histories. Gen G has the edge here, both early and late game. The numbers are closer when sorted for post-break, and Gen has shown weakness with some lower tier teams' struggles. I like going back to Gen G here, and DK has priced them down with them opening as slight favorites.
The kill numbers favor Gen as well, with T1 giving up nearly 18 deaths in their losses. Gen is near 17 kills in their wins, making them the highest projected LCK team on tonight's slate. They still average an abysmal 1.9 assists per kill, but they are a cheap favorite with a decent kill projection. There are a lot of fireworks on the LPL side tonight. I'll be looking to those matches for some full stacks, but some Gen G pieces to save some cash might be helpful.
Top Gen G Plays
- Clid - JNG - I've sorted the Gen G stats by wins after break trying to identify trends, and Clid pops with 75% KP and 25% KS.
- BDD - MID - 62%KP and 25% KS put him on the map, and Clozer is more coin flip style player than old reliable Faker.
- Gen G - TEAM - always.
6:00 AM: Fredit Brion (+165) vs. AFS (-210)
The second LCK match moves in the opposite direction of the first Fredit Brion is slowly moving closer to AFS. With BRO showing well in the loss to DWG and AFS reeling from the loss to HLE, it's a bit to be expected. This one is shaping up to be a tight match, and we're going to have to look closely.
Since break Fredit has improved their early gameplay, and that alone has made a massive difference for them. Their strength is their late-game team fighting. If they enter those fights on even footing instead of behind, they can make some noise. AFS has a slight edge in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Fredit, however, has begun playing more to the strength of their bottom lane. BRO holds the lead in first drakes and total drakes. The team's baron percentages are nearly equal, but Fredit has better vision numbers. I think AFS has a slight edge in the team stats.
Kiin has been smurfing post break, and Dread scarcely less so. Umti should match him, and Hoya will draw tank duty to mitigate Kiin's advantages somewhat. Mid lane has been chiefly a farm fest making it a wash. Bang is legitimately dust, and Lehends has been getting caught out too much. I think the bot diff here is too much to overcome for AFS, and I'll take BRO to get this win. Fredit has improved their early game, they have side selection, and the kill numbers are blah, leading me into dog or pass territory here. I think everyone besides Hoya is in play on Fredit if you need the salary relief, they only project around 16 kills in a win, but their 2.6 assist per kills is tops on the slate.
Top BRO Plays:
- Hena - ADC - 78% KP and 36% KS post-break.
- Umti - JNG - 78% and 21% for the jungler.
- Delight - SUP - 77% KP.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: BLG (-550) vs. RW (+350)
Continuing the theme of Vegas odds on the move, BLG has jumped from -385 to -550, giving them an extra boost in implied win odds as well. Unfortunately, they were already among the most expensive plays on the slate, so that we won't get a lot of extra value from this boost. BLG might not have the best record post break, but they have played IG, EDG, and TES, so I have to cut my boys some slack for their 2-8 game record. RW will get none as they have only won 3 games, all split.
BLG will need the sweep here and some help if they want to qualify for the playoffs. Their remaining matches against WE, FPX, and SNG make this a must-win. RW has had some stiff competition since break as well with games versus EDG and RNG. They also got drilled by LGD and OMG, signaling the end of their underdog darling days. BLG did manage to lose to OMG pre-break, but OMG does try to play an active brand of league. RW have lost their chaotic edge, which had made them a popular dog. BLG is the play here, but I don't know how much I'll have as I have concerns about RW not providing much blowback.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG - nearly 80% KP and 26% KS since break.
- Zeka - MID - 68% and 26% plus a better lane matchup give him the edge over Aiming for me.
4:00 AM: Rare Atom (-115) vs. IG (-115)
With the way the LPL playoffs bracket looks, moving up from the bottom four will be a massive priority for IG and TES. Invictus have TT, LGD, and V5 on the schedule after this showdown with RA. They would still like this win to knock RA out of a top-four spot. RA has both RNG and EDG left on their schedule, making this match with IG nearly a must-win if they want to hold on to a top seed for playoffs. I think you all know where I'm leaning, but let's take a look anyway.
IG has faced stiff competition since the break upending EDG, losing 2-1 to TES, and splitting sweeps one up one down with SNG and BLG. RA impressed in the win over FPX but remain the same team that dropped games to TT and OMG. RA should have the edge early in this one. They have substantial leads in rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, first blood, and GD@15. IG holds the edge in total drakes while the teams are even in baron percentage, but RA has a substantial advantage in vision numbers. Team stats are solidly in favor of RA.
Last year IG and RA (ni Vici) split in 2020, with RA winning in summer and IG in spring. RA has upgraded the roster from that one, and IG has been more or less stagnant. Looking up and down the lanes, I don't see the advantages I once did for Invictus. I think this match should be RA favored, and if it weren't for IG's name brand, it would be. I'll give RA the win 2-1 over IG, but as they showed versus EDG, IG can still ruin anyone's day. IG will look to take the game late and hand it over to Puff to carry. This strat isn't terrible for them, as we all know the pain of an Iboy/Ohboy coin flip.
RA has side selection in the match for a further bit of edge, and with the LPL moving ahead to 11.5, it brings Qiyana into play for Leyan. IG is very familiar with their ex jungler and will likely have to waste draft capital to ban the champ away from him. Too many small factors for me favor RA. The kill numbers look juicy on both sides, with both teams projected over 18 kills in a win. Both teams could end up being optimal in a sweep or a bloody three-game battle, so I'll hedge my RA pick with some IG in case we do get Ohboy.
Top RA Plays:
- Fofo - MID - leads the team in KP% post-break.
- Iboy - ADC - still leads the team in KS%, and IG will be focusing on bot.
- Hang - SUP - see above.
- Leyan - JNG - revenge narrative or whatever.
6:00 AM: EDG (-140) vs. TES (+110)
TES at dog pricing... eat chalk evildoers. They have been maybe the hottest team in the world off of the LNY break, and now they face the hottest team in the world pre-break EDG. We were treated to an exciting close match between RNG and EDG last Saturday, and today should be no different. TES has had a more manageable schedule, though, so let's dive in.
TES should be ahead early with a higher first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15 than EDG. EDG has the edge in total drakes and vision numbers, but TES has a baron percentage lead. The team stats are close, but I give the edge to TES. Up and down the lanes, it will also be a close-run thing. EDG has slight edges, top, and bot, while TES has the advantage in mid/jungle.
I lean to the side of TES in this one; they are on the red side for the match but have a better win rate with counter pick than they do for first pick. That, along with their early game and laning prowess, should set them up for success. Given the pricing on DK, there is NO WAY on earth that TES isn't massive chalk. I like them to pick up the win, but with a considerable ownership discount on EDG along with easy access to them given the open nature of the slate, I like hedging out this matchup.
Top TES plays
- Knight - MID - first in KP% post break, and second in KS%
- Karsa - JNG - second in KP% and third in KS%. He will be a significant win condition in this series.
- Jackeylove - ADC - always.
- Zhou - SUP - third in KP% and has reigned from earlier in the season some of his over aggression.
Top EDG plays
- Viper - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS with 36%.
- Meiko - SUP - 73.4% KP leads the team.
- Scout - MID - my guy.
- Flandre - TOP - we've seen what he can do when given a chance to carry.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-1, BRO 2-1, BLG 2-0, RA 2-1, and TES 2-1. I don't think there will end up being this many complete sets, but 2-1 is sort of the cop-out answer when you're not totally set on who wins.
- Both of the big matches in the LPL are close enough to be worth hedging. T1 should be low-owned, but I don't think you need to go there on this slate. BLG will be the only sure thing, but I've said that before only to watch them throw versus OMG.
- This will be one of the more wide-open slates we've had in a while, and it will make for some headaches trying to finalize those last roster spots. I guarantee we'll see some solo winners tonight and fewer ties.
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