RADIO
BLG. That's it, that's the intro. Tough times out there when I can't even get a -600 favorite to pick up the win. I did get the two theoretically closer matches in the LPL correct, with JDG and FPX both winning. With other teams making significant upgrades, TES will have to adapt their engage and outplay style into something a bit more nuanced, I believe. T1 rolled, and predictably my KT prediction was dead wrong, though AFS at dog prices brought me three games at least.
We've got a second big fiver tonight featuring a couple of cakewalks in the LCK and some tight matchups in the LPL. Hanwa and DWG should roll, but we'll have to dig a bit deeper to solve these LPL riddles, but then again, maybe I can't take these big favs in the LCK for granted either. Let's get to it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM on Sunday, February 7th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: HLE (-600) vs. Liiv SBG (+370)
I am going to keep these short and sweet since I much prefer the LPL matchups today. If I were to an LCK stack today, it would be from this game. I have HLE winning this matchup reasonably quickly, but my concern is do they pay off their price tag. HLE is one of the better early game teams in the LCK, and Sandbox is rated the worst mid to late game team in the LCK. This recipe equals success for HLE, especially with them grading better in GD15, Dragon %, and vision denial. HLE should control the map and force Sandbox to either turtle over or take unfavorable fights.
With this being very cut and dry, I would pick my spots for one-offs or small stacks, especially with them so expensive today. They are similarly priced as V5 who offers you more upset, but HLE offers your more safety.
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - It's Chovy, enough said.
- Deft - Leads team in KS% and has shown 90-100+ point upside.
- HLE Team - 2nd in the LCK in dragon % and DWG team slot just put up 68 vs. LSB
7:00 AM: DWG (-850) vs. DRX (+450)
This is another matchup that I am going to keep short and sweet. I recommend being underweight on this matchup. Both these teams own some of the lowest CKPMs in the LCK and are the lowest by far on the slate. While DWG can pull a 25 kill game out of nowhere, they can also pull out a ten kill game and dominate through macro. DRX is a young team that is very patient in the way they play and wait for their opportunities. They try to grind out wins versus their opponents, and while DWG is a team that usually is resilient to that, I wouldn't be surprised if DRX takes a game off of them or limits upside. Statistically speaking, DWG dominates in everything that matters. They dominate both in herald and dragon % and use them to scale through their early gold leads; this makes DWG so unique. I have DWG winning but not paying off their price points, very similarly to HLE.
Top DWG Plays:
- DWG KIA Team - Lead the LCK in dragon % and currently average 57.3 fantasy points
- Ghost - 1st in KS% and 2nd in KP%
- Showmaker - 2nd in KS% and 1st in KP%
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LNG (-105) vs. RA (-130)
LNG are coming into this match off what looks like a frustrating loss to FPX where they couldn't get anything going. They attempted the Ale (Natural) experiment for all of 1 game, so in the future, I would keep in mind when rostering an LNG top laner. RA, on the other hand, are coming off back to back 2-0 performances. This matchup should be a close one, and let's dig a little deeper.
LNG is coming into this series with the side selection advantage, which should play a big part in a possible win condition. This means that LNG could see two games on the blue side this series, a map they have dominated thus far with a record of 7-1.
RA has looked much better recently, and a lot of praise has to go out to Leyan, someone hard to trust. I think we have all been there through the IG slates of the past where Leyan held you back from a potential takedown. Well, I can't guarantee that won't happen here, but he has looked much more comfortable, and so does RA with him in the lineup.
When comparing the two, they statistically matchup very similarly. Both teams have very similar early-game and mid/late ratings as well as dragon control rate. RA does lead the two in GD@15, while LNG looks for early tower control to open up the map. This matchup will most likely come down to which jungle/mid duo can be more influential around the map, and I have to lean Tarzan and Icon here lightly.
This match could go overlooked since LNG and RA have the two lowest CKPMs out of all the LPL teams. With the odds now having moved to the RA side, they could garner some ownership due to their perceived value.
Top LNG Plays:
- Tarzan - I still think he is one of the best junglers in the world; fantasy upside will come
- Icon - Leads team in KP% and 2nd in KS%
- Light - 100 point upside matching up against OhBoy. Leads team in KS% and 2nd in KP%
Top RA Plays:
- Leyan - Playing lights out of late, leads team in KS%
- FoFo - Showing higher upside than iBoy right now
- Hang - One of my favorite supports to play alone since he can outscore his ADC. Leads team in KP%
4:00 AM: V5 (-345) vs. Estar (+240)
V5 is coming off one of the most crushing losses we have seen this split in their game one vs. EDG on Tuesday. V5 threw a 7k gold lead, dragon soul empowered, and a double-digit kill lead. After that loss, it was reasonably evident that they would get rolled in game two, where they only could get two kills. eStar, on the other hand, are coming off a tight series with TT, a series that showed that ES belongs in the bottom-tier conversation for the near future.
I like V5 today to bounce back from that nightmare of a series vs. EDG. V5 will exploit eStar's inconsistencies, but I will not sit here and act like V5 is a great team. However, I think they have pieces to their squad that have bright futures in the LPL. I think this game has a high upside, as both teams are in the top 6 in CKPM in the LPL. While I recommend focusing on V5 stacks, eStar stacks should be reserved for large-field tournaments only.
Top V5 Plays:
- WeiWei - 2nd in KS% and 1st in KP%
- Y4 - 1st in KS% and 3rd in KP%
- Ppgod - 2nd in KP% and primary beneficiary of Y4
6:00 AM: IG (-110) vs. RNG (-125)
Welcome to the game of the night and the chalk of the chalk. I say this because everyone will be on this game, and for a good reason. It is projected for the highest kill total on the slate, and both teams are mispriced. RNG was priced today as the favorite so expect the other IG fanboys to be alive tonight. Now let's dig into the matchup.
RNG comes in as one of the better teams in the LPL, and the Xiaohu experiment looks like it's working. RNG hasn't played since Monday, so their main focus has been prepping for IG. RNG will not have side selection, but that might not matter as RNG is currently 5-2 on the red side this split. RNG now has the 3rd best GD15 mark in the LPL and forcing a team like IG to play from behind is very beneficial, especially with how RNG loves to control the vision game.
On the other hand, IG is coming off a dismantling of OMG, a much-needed bounce back after their poor performance against FPX the game before. IG will have something to prove in this series and, of late, have performed well vs. RNG. My recommendation here is not to fade this game. This game is too enticing to pass up, and if this were a two-game slate, it would have a slight game stack upside. My lean is IG, but I expect this to go three games, and it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that the loser outscores the winning team today.
Top IG Plays:
- Everyone in play. Prioritize Wink, Rookie, and Xun.
Top RNG Plays:
- Everyone in play. Prioritize GALA, Xiaohu, and Wei.
Summary
- TLDR: LNG 2-1, V5 2-0, IG 2-1, HLE 2-0, and DWG 2-0. My recommendation for this slate is to focus on all LPL lineups. I know it's very cliche to say, but the upside in some of these LPL matches are hard to ignore.
- Fading the IG/RNG matchup is an excellent way to differentiate tonight, but it's super risky. Think of NBA you faded the Warriors at the Lakers in the late game. It'll be terrifying watching Lebron and Steph run up and down the court while you hope for a blowout.
- Ranking high priced teams (not must have but if looking to spend up): V5 -> HLE -> DWG.
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