RADIO
What a start to week four in the LCK that was, and there were shenanigans aplenty. T1 put the lineup into the blender again, and Zeus (Zay-us, yeah, I know I was prepping for a literal thousand Zeus.gifs) and the boys came out the other side with a dominant game one win. Then they changed adcs, screwed over my lineups, lost badly (not at all Teddy's fault), swapped adcs again, and finally won. Still somehow better than Gen G, who swapped jungle and mid, lost, never changed back, and ended up losing 2-1 to DRX in an outcome that was 1000% unexpected.
LPL was equally as head-scratching. The toilet bowl eliminator match was a back and forth affair of both teams throwing away leads, and in the end, TT did win, but eStar outscored them by in large (rat was terrific). JDG kept things grounded for us by winning, albeit a bit too easily for my JDG lineups to prosper. Another four gamer is staring us in the face, and we've got four definite favorites. What could go wrong?
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Thursday, February 4th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 HLE (-305) vs. AFS (+215)
The Freecs not so quietly put together a 2-0 week last night in defiance of my declarations of them being the second-worst team in the league. HLE went 1-1, and there is no shame in losing to DWG. Those results make this a top-five clash currently in the LCK, and I don't know how to feel about that.
This one shapes up to be a hotly contested match, and it should be close throughout. The two things that stand out to me are the economic edge that HLE holds, although it's almost entirely localized in Chovy, and how the teams approach those early map trades. AFS have the advantage in rift herald by a solid eight percent, but they cannot turn that into an actionable lead in a first turret or GD@15 edge. HLE has a nine percent edge in first drake rate and an eight percent overall drake edge. They won't over commit to the herald and will trade it for those dragons. Herald will put pressure on AFS to turn that into meaningful gold leads against a better HLE team, and I doubt they will do so.
I mentioned it before game three of the TT/ES debacle last night, and it still stands; bad teams don't do well when put on a timer. HLE stacking drakes will put AFS on a countdown before the soul and baron fights come around. Go too soon, and they'll hand the lead over to HLE, wait too long, and HLE get free objectives. AFS doesn't have the high-end macro play of DWG to pull HLE around the map. HLE should win here handily, but I likely won't have much of this match on Thursday. AFS average a paltry 13.5 deaths in their losses, and while HLE are over 20 kills in their wins, I don't think they'll need that kind of game to pick up the dub.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - MID - be all and end all to this team, no apologies to Deft.
- Arthur - JNG - second in KP% and third in KS%.
- HLE - TEAM - I don't even really feel good about this spot; I mean, it's not like they're Gen G or anything.
7:00 AM: Fredit Brion (+250) vs. KT Rolster (-360)
Before I even start, I'll just come clean: I don't think I've gotten KT right all split. This spot versus the worst team in the league by a wide margin should be a layup, though. KT is currently in sixth place, and Brion predictably is last. It seems too good to be true, so let's dig in just in case.
Fredit has the edge in first blood, first drake, and total drakes. KT are the rift herald team in this matchup, holding a 25% edge and a 36% lead in first turrets. KT is also even with Fredit in total drakes, while maintaining an 18% advantage in barons. So that tells me not to worry as much about KT trading early drakes to BRO. KT can convert those into gold leads, turrets and equalize dragons later. They are the better team, and if they put themselves on a timer, I'm not worried about it.
What I am worried about is the most significant advantages that KT has are in the solo lanes. Right now, everything is about jungle and bot. Hena may be playing over his head and Hybrid under, but I'll take Delight over Zzus any day. A likely first pick Kaisa from Fredit, doesn't do much to ease my concern. Jungle is also problematic with Umti outpacing Blank in farm, KP%, DPM, and KS%. Ucal and Doran should help out with this with two winning lanes for Blank to attack his options will be more plentiful than Umti.
I still like KT for the win here, but I'm not sold on a sweep or anything special from them in dfs.
Top KT Plays:
- Ucal - MID - playing like it's 2018 again (that's a good thing).
- D07an - TOP - 63% KP is pretty good for a top laner.
- Blank -JNG - lead the team in KP% with a respectable 20% kill share as well.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: IG (-1200) vs. OMG (+550)
The IG betting line is gaining some steam and has jumped up to -1200, and for those of you keeping track at home, that's a 92% implied win percentage. IG hasn't been 92% to beat anyone since the 14-minute mark of their 16-minute STOMP of T1 at MSI in 2019. That might not be an actual stat, but unless today is the first day you've ever seen IG play, you know it feels like it is. Let's find out how Invictus screws us today.
The stats do look good for IG, and they are better early with superior numbers in first turret, first blood, GD@15, and first drake. OMG has a better herald percentage, but I don't think OMG can turn that into a substantial lead with IG holding the edge in gold and first turrets. IG also has the lead in total drakes and barons. Both teams are bottom-thirds of the league in vision numbers, so eliminating one of IG's most significant weaknesses well neutralizes it, as OMG is also deficient in that regard.
IG is starting Lucas, their former LDL support over Baolan, and with Bao's outrageous death percentage of 25, this could be an upgrade. Lucas averaged around 20% of IG Youth's deaths in LDL summer, for comparison. Hopefully, this change can unlock Wink because I am worried about the bot lane matchup for IG. However, the mid-jungle duo has been excellent for IG, and Xun is the team's primary win condition.
IG play RNG on Saturday morning and have big matches next week with EDG and SNG. They also have a history of taking lesser opponents lightly. There are seemingly always questions in the bottom half of the map for IG as well. IG win here; they have enough talent and statistical edges to lay a beat down on this revamped OMG team. OMG give up around 17 deaths per loss, but IG's often sloppy play has them sitting pretty at 21.5 kills in their wins. IG will be neck and neck with FPX for the best spot on the slate if both win. OMG, will likely be the slate breakers today if they pull the upset, though.
Top IG Plays:
- XUN - JNG - leads the team in both KP% and KS%.
- Rookie - MID - second in KP% and third in KS%, and he's been carrying this team for years. Why should Thursday be any different?
- Wink - ADC - thinking he steps up a bit more without Bao throwing away leads.
- Lucas - SUP - he's legit with a 70% KP in LDL last year.
6:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-500) vs. LNG (+310)
The late game in the LPL will be the match of the day. Both teams come into this set fresh off sweeps over their latest opponents. LNG and FPX also have 2-0 victories over my IG boys on their resumes and added big-time free agent top laners in the offseason. Let's dig in on this one.
LNG has surprised quite a few people with how well they have started the split, including the aforementioned sweep of IG. They are sixth in the league in early game rating and fourth in mid to late game. That's an impressive resume for anyone, especially in the LPL. There is trouble in paradise, though, as FPX sits second in both metrics. The 2019 world champs have looked like they are a shoo-in to represent the LPL again come October.
LNG has a few small statistical edges, and the one that might help them the most is their vision control. With Tarzan coming over from the LCK, he is among the league leaders among junglers in vision stats. Bo has lacked in this area, but he has made up for it with insane farm numbers and kill participation. Doinb might not have the flashy kill numbers that Icon does this year, but he still outstrips his opposite number in farm and damage. I think the bot lane is pretty even in the matchup. Light and especially Iwandy have been terrific so far this year, and as splashy as LWX's score lines have been, I think this lane is very competitive. The top lane is firmly in control of Nuguri, and although ALE is a considerable prospect, he'll be hard-pressed to hang with the world champion.
This one is FPX's match to lose, and I see avenues for that to happen, but I don't think I'll pull the trigger on it. FPX does give up 21 deaths in their losses, so I can see where LNG presents both leverage and upside. FPX themselves should clock in around 18 projected kills in a win, putting them on par with IG. Their overall KP% numbers are a tick better than Invictus as well.
Top FPX plays
- Bo - JNG - a tough matchup, but he's going to have to keep up his team-leading kill metrics for FPX to win.
- Doinb - MID - stats are down from last year, but he's owned the matchup with Icon in the past.
- Lwx - ADC - can't ignore his numbers.
- Nuguri - TOP - call it a hunch, but I think ALE doesn't back down here and buffs up Nuguris numbers.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-0, KT 2-0, IG 2-1, FPX 2-0. I gave you all some reasons why any or all of the dogs could come through today, and if you made me pick, I'd say that LNG might have the best shot. I'm higher on LNG than some of my buds, and I don't think they win, but they might have the best shot. Or OMG, if IG doesn't show up.
- Big surprise, Jason likes the LPL matches better than the LCK ones. I always refer to CKM combined kills/deaths per minute for pace in these games. The LCK matches average .785 for HLE/AFS and .715 for BRO/KT. The LPL side has IG/OMG at .915 and FPX/LNG at .795.
- I wish I liked the dogs better on this slate as it would open up more options for lineup construction. With the proliferation of one-off Fanduel style lineups starting to move up the leaderboards, I might try to look for a fair punt play to force dual adc builds. Who knows, but we'll have to get creative with it, that much I do know.
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