RADIO
Gen G was slow as predicted on Friday, and they even went so far as to lose a game that was not in anyone's plans. AFS came thru with a cheap underdog sweep for me. TT was one barrel away from picking up a massive upset over JDG, but the Spring 2020 champs forced a third game which they won decisively. EDG flopped versus IG and managed to keep IG's scoring to a minimum, creating a trap for many lineups.
Tonight brings us our first five-game slate post-LNY break, and it's a doozy. Some top-tier showdowns in the LCK are on display, with two matches between the top five teams. The LPL, not to be outdone, showcases its second and third-place teams in the late game. Unfortunately, they start us out with a toilet bowl between 17th and 13th, but they can't all be winners. Fantasy favorites TES also grace the slate with match versus Estar. Let's jump into this monster slate.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, February 27th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 DRX (+135) vs. HLE (-175)
Dragon X enter this surprising fourth versus fifth-place matchup in the LCK on the back of 2 straight wins after break. HLE has only played once since the LCK resumed the spring split, a 2-1 win over the side of Nongshim RedForce. Way back in week one, HLE took down DRX in a hard-fought 2-1, winning both games on the blue side. Now DRX gets the first pick, and we get to run it back.
These two teams are near opposites in their stats and their approach. HLE dominates the early game sitting fourth in the league in early game rating but sixth in mid to late game. DRX is eighth in the league in the early game but second in the middle to late game. DRX has a 3% edge in first blood percentage, but all other early stats favor HLE by a much wider margin. Almost comedically, though, DRX leads in baron takes by 14%. The match will come down to HLE to get far enough ahead to withstand their self-destructive tendencies.
There is upside for both teams here. We have DRX who are dirt cheap, on the blue side, average 2.4 assists per kill, and will need to fight their way into the game from behind, and the HLE, who should be able to smack DRX with their wallets, will have trouble closing which can inflate their scores, and average nearly 20 kills in their wins because of that. You all already know I don't care for HLE as I view them as a narrow win condition type of team. So I like the idea of playing DRX because I can pick and choose my favorite pieces from any other stack I want. I also don't mind HLE here as I have them projected for around 18 kills in a win, and that's good for third on the slate for the favorites. I'll officially pick DRX to win because I like Pyosik over Arthur and if HLE let the game come down to a decisive team fight or smite fight, that could be all the difference.
Top DRX Plays
- Pyosik - JNG - third in KP%, but second in KS%.
- Bao - ADC - nearly forty percent KS%, and I prefer the bot duo from DRX to HLE. Sorry Vince, but Deft is over the hill.
- Becca - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - MID - the primary win condition for this HLE squad.
- Deft - ADC - I know I just told you he is dusty as hell, but we just played Bang yesterday successfully.
- Vsta - SUP - just ahead of his adc in KP%.
- Arthur - JNG - good numbers, bad matchup.
6:00 AM: T1 (+210) vs. DWG (-285)
T1 in the late game, stop me if you've heard this joke before. We saw them run out the same lineup twice in a row again, with some lovely results. I've heard that one before, too, though. Damwon has looked a bit sketchy since returning from break, dropping games to HLE, KT, and likely should have lost at least one to Liiv SBG. Damwon has won the last five matches versus T1. Let's see if they keep up their winning ways here.
T1 should have the edge in the early game, but it's the late game and consistency for me. Damwon has the advantage over T1 in only rift herald percentage out of the early game metrics. T1 has everything else; despite DWG having the GPM and CSM leads, T1 still has a better GD@15. Damwon makes their stand in the mid and late game with a 7% edge in total drakes and a 22% lead in baron percentage. Damwon also has a tidy lead in vision numbers and the consistency of having the same lineup throughout the split and several years for everyone but Khan.
T1 have a shot, but your guess is as good as mine as to who they run out for starters, or even if the starters last more than a game. The head-to-head player stats don't look bad for T1 with the latest lineup, and I think that's one of the dfs plays of the slate. Plug your nose and play some T1 if you're playing multiple lineups on Saturday, but for my money, I'll take DWG to win. The sluggish play versus Liiv should serve as a wake-up call for DWG, and regardless of who the players are, it has to be pretty easy to get up for a match versus T1. Damwon doesn't have a ton of upside in the matchup, with T1 only giving over 16.5 deaths in the losses.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID - leads the team in KP% second in KS%
- Canyon - JNG - nearly identical stats to his mid laner.
- Ghost - ADC - leads the team in kill share.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD (-155) vs. Rogue Warriors (+120)
The early LPL appetizer is not that tasty with a couple of our cellar dwellers in action here. Both teams spent a large portion of the split waiting for their starting adcs to join the starting roster, which has led to some of their struggles. LGD picked up a nice win over TT heading into break, and this will be their first match on the other side. RW has already had a post-break game to work out some of their problems with integrating Betty into the lineup. 17th versus 13th might not be the most hype matchup, but we've got to start somewhere on the LPL side.
I usually get all analytical and try to break down these matchups as best as possible, but sometimes teams defy whatever point I bring forward. Both are bottom of the barrel (literally 17th and 15th) in early game rating and scarcely any better in the late game (14th and 13th). Both teams are also working members in and out of the starting lineups. LGD can't decide on a jungler or a support, even swapping out Flora after a win in the first game of their series with TT. RW is bringing Betty along with their newly minted support Kaixun.
The kill numbers are pretty even between the teams, thanks mainly to RW. They give up 19 deaths per loss and average 21 kills in their wins. LGD is near the bottom of the league in pace, but RW likely struggles to close them out if ahead and feed if they lose. The long way around this one is I have both teams projected at 18 kills (roughly) in a win, and I have no idea who wins here. Anyone who tells you they do is a dammed liar. If you make me pick, I'll take RW in a dog or pass spot. RW has long been the upset darling of the LPL, so I think they will be the higher-owned team despite being dogs in the matchup. LGD for ownership and likely upside, RW for the savings.
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG - always a threat to run away with a game or two.
- Betty - ADC - Looked good on the Samira in his debut. I think they focus around bot lane.
- Kaixun - SUP - 70% KP with RW Shark in the LDL. 71% in his first LPL match.
Top LGD Plays:
- Kramer - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Uniboy - MID - Leads the regular team members in KS%
- Cult - TOP - won't be swapped, and that's more than I can say for the other options.
4:00 AM: Estar (+600) vs. TES (-1100)
Top Esports came back from the break to drop a clean 2-0 on LNG, while Estar returned from vacation only to get run off the rift by WE. When TES plays the way they did versus LNG, it's easy to see why they are often their own worst enemy. Let's take a look before we jump the gun all-inning on TES.
The comedy ensues on our big Saturday slate, cue the yakkity sax because TES are your number one early game team in the LPL, but also the worst late-game team in the LPL. The good news for TES is that Estar is the 12th worst team in mid-late efficiency in the league. TES is near the top of the league in GPM and CSM. The only edge that Estar comes away with is a vision score advantage that will likely be neutralized by TES taking down turrets and having minion waves pushed up. Up and down the map, TES has the edge everywhere but at support with ShiauC, the lone standout on this Estar roster.
There is no reason for TES to lose this matchup, and I would be stunned if they did. ES has some delightful upside with TES giving up 20.5 deaths in their losses, but I don't think it's anything other than a hail mary. TES put up over 20 in both games with LNG, and they're the slowest team in the league. Against an Estar squad that sits just outside the top five in pace, it's going to be challenging to fade TES tonight. The only thing I will say in defense of the TES fade is that they only average 2.1 assists per kill and are likely looking to continue to clean up some of the sloppy play that's allowed them to push both their kill and death numbers so high.
Top TES Plays:
- Ram it and jam it!
6:00 AM: RNG (+115) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-150)
FPX is back on the slate, and we're face to face with their jungle issues once again. After suffering through the LGD/RW matchup, we will be treated to a prime cut here, with the second and third place teams facing off. Royal come in off a 2-0 over RW that did see them struggle a bit in game two, and FPX are off the loss to WE. By the way, that one still stings, but we know the jungle situation well in advance FPX called up their LDL jungler Beichuan. He is a talented former streamer looking for a more significant challenge, from Huya to the LPL.
Looking at the stats with a grain of salt since FPX will again be starting over with a rookie jungler, but it wasn't long ago we were looking at Bo in askance, and now we're lamenting his loss. FunPlus has been the better early game team between the two, using Nuguri's pressure in the top side to gain access to rift herald quickly, then transitioning that into leads in first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Royal has been more active on the bottom half of the map leading in the first drake rate by 21%, but FPX close the gap to 1% in total dragons. FPX holds the lead in barons, but RNG has a considerable edge in vision numbers.
The addition of Nuguri has been huge for FPX, allowing them to weather the first jungle swap and prosper from it. Doinb hasn't lost to RNG since the UZI era in the spring of 2019. Beichuan is no slouch. He was coming in off a player of the week award in the LDL week three and tied for second with nine man of the match awards after five weeks of play. His play on Nidalee, Hecarim, and Lillia three popular meta picks has been excellent. I still think that even with the replacement jungler here, FPX has the advantage in the top half of the map. RNG's bot duo is a bit stronger than that of FPX. RNG will have the blue side to secure a power pick for Gala into the matchup with LWX. I think FPX answers with a safe counter pick like Ezreal or puts Crisp onto something like Tham Kench to keep his adc safe while they farm up playing the weak side.
Call me crazy, but I want to jump right back on FPX here, after they burned everyone last time out. Strong laners will protect Beichuan on the top side, and his farm numbers are excellent in the LDL. I think he can hang. We'll get FPX at an ownership discount as a cheap favorite going up against a high-paced RNG squad that's sure to be popular. RNG surrender nearly 20 deaths in their losses, and FPX has averaged almost 19 kills in their wins. FPX, on the other hand, has only given up 15 deaths in their losses which will mitigate RNG's upside. There is an argument for both sides here, but I like FPX to bounce back in this one and pick up the win.
Top FPX plays
- Doinb - MID - I expect his number to tick up here, same with Nuguri.
- Beichuan - JNG - 73% KP and 28% KS in the LDL so far.
- Lwx - ADC - Leads the team in KP% and KS%
- Crisp - SUP - Tied with Lwx for team lead in KP%.
Summary
- TLDR: DRX 2-1, DWG 2-1, RW 2-1, TES 2-0 and FPX 2-1. There's a lot of close ones out there tonight, so we've got tons of options to play with in gpps. RNG, LGD, T1, and HLE are all very live tonight.
- TES will likely be the chalkiest play on the slate as they are approaching G2 status in terms of bringing the kills to the matchup instead of letting the matchup dictate. I have FPX slightly ahead of them, but I worry FPX puts the brakes on a bit to try to protect the new guy.
- HLE projects out in third for kills in a win by a hair over the other LPL teams. T1 is high as well at 17.5 kills, if you can stomach the swaps and DWG's history.
- LGD and RW is a real toss-up; I like RW by a hair due to their somewhat consistent lineup outside of the bot duo. That one can go either way, and if LGD does get the win, we've all seen the number that can be put up against RW.
- Alright, everyone, let's get after it tonight and come back with some green tomorrow for another biggie. DK rolls out the monster contests next weekend with the 150K guaranteed Dragon Slayer on Saturday and the 100k Turret Takedown on Sunday. Tonight's contests are no slouch, though, unless you play on FD, where it's always the same.
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