RADIO
Welp, I did a poor job following my advice and ended up going all-in on WE only to see them draft Jhin and crush my dreams yesterday. They were quite popular, so I'm sure they dashed a lot of people's hopes. AFS picked up another cheap win with NSRF tilting off game two after throwing game one. DWG reasserted dominance, but not precisely in a fantasy-friendly way, and LNG cruised.
We're back to a similar slate to earlier in the week, where we have three big favs and one tight match. The latest game of the week in the LPL should be exciting, especially after we saw theshy show signs of life in his last game and his history with Nuguri. All the shite talking will hit the rift, and I'm excited to get into it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, January 30th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Fredit Brion (+275) vs. DRX (-425)
Oh Fredit, we hardly knew ya. The unofficial world champs lost their belt immediately to the likes of NSRF, who themselves lost it to AFS. Brion has had some time coming off that loss must prepare for DRX, who themselves are on a one day turn around. DRX had every chance to beat KT Rolster on Thursday but made some unfortunate decisions in the mid-game, which again cost them.
DRX will be afforded more leeway in this series. Brion is the worst early game team in the league, and DRX the second worst. The gap between the two is substantial enough that I'm not worried for DRX here even if they go all-in on another early game comp, as we saw versus KT. Even if DRX are sluggish early, they have the edge late as they own the monster objective stats. DRX has the highest late-game rating in the LCK, and Fredit is bottom three.
I've maintained that Brion is the worst team in the league by a fair margin, and I think that will continue to bear itself out. We're getting some value pricing on these DRX plays, and that should make them popular. I've got them projected for a similar amount of kills to Gen G and a bit behind V5. I think that's pretty good for their prices, and we'll get the possibility of them being bad enough not to close out cleanly. Much like we saw AFS score very well versus Brion because they couldn't finish, let's call it the bad team bonus.
Top DRX Plays
- BAO - ADC - nearly 41% kill share is phenomenal.
- Becca - SUP - leads the team in kill participation at almost 72%
- Pyosik - JNG - third in KP% and second in KS%
7:00 AM: Liiv (+450) vs. Gen G (-850)
Both of these LCK matches seem pretty open and shut cases for me today, and judging by the odds, Vegas seems to agree. Gen G has recently been through a rough patch, playing the other three of the big four and emerging with a 1-2 record. They collected losses versus HLE and DWG and got the win over T1, but with some exciting drafts along the way, it has looked worse than it was. Liiv got run by Liquid Metal T1 on Thursday, and I expect a similar result today.
Liiv's best play will be to go all-in early game and snowball over Gen G. The problem with that is that Gen G is better than SBG early by a fair margin and MUCH better late. Liiv has a slight edge in heralds, first drakes, and average gold at fifteen, but Gen G has better first turret rates along with much better baron plays and vision numbers.
With the late game in the LPL containing all the fireworks on the slate, this is another spot where I like the sweep, but not the upside. Without knowing who, Gen G will start in the jungle, we lose that possible value play and are left with some more expensive choices. Gen G is not G2. They won't be out here fighting in the jungle for no reason; they are cold, calculating, and clean. Gen's kill participation has also been low; this split further hurting them in my eyes as they average a paltry 1.8 assist per kill.
Top GEN Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - top option, also second most expensive on the slate.
- Rascal - TOP - most expensive top, use with care.
- Gen G - TEAM - should return to their usual 60 point output with upside for more.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: T__T (+425) vs. Victory 5 (-750)
V5 is at it again; if you recall, when Trigger and Aodi debuted, they were announced as joining the team the day of his debut. I don't know how long he had been with the squad before that news release, but we're doing it all over again. This time it's personal, no wait; this time, it's in the top lane part two! Invincible was just called up to the main roster, and into the starting lineup he goes. If they keep this up, I might play TT.
TT is right at the top of the bottom of the league. Name any stat, and they are top-bottom five in it. The ones I'm most concerned with are the early game indicators. V5 is built around their early game prowess. Stacking rift herald and first turrets to snowball their gold lead is their go-to move. V5 leads the league with an 86% first turret rate, and their 75% rift herald % is also tops in the league. TT are 14th of 17 in first turret rate despite a respectable rift herald percentage of 56.
V5 should get the ball rolling early versus TT, but at the top tier pricing versus one of the slower league teams in terms of pace, I'm worried about their upside. This matchup is a sweep waiting to happen, but it should also come quickly for V5, maybe even too easily. V5 only average 16 kills per win, and that does come from that snowball, as mentioned above. Up early and cruising to victory isn't always the best path to fantasy success. The possible value from rostering Invincible is lost as he is not on the slate on DK or FD.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG - leads the team in KP% and third in KS%.
- Y4 - ADC - leads the team in KS% and third in KP%
- Ppgod - SUP - second in KP%
6:00 AM: Invictus (+125) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-170)
Game of the week in the LPL, or at least it is since yesterday (WE/RNG disappointed), until tomorrow (TES/JDG promises fireworks as well). This match is the prime spot for kill upside on the slate, but it will be a close fight as well. Both teams come in after cruising to 2-0 wins on Wednesday. Let's jump in.
FPX has the edge on IG early, and that might be all they need to throw the 2018 champs off their game. Invictus has been prioritizing drake stacking over rift herald and early turret gold, which I usually favor. IG, though, still lacks consistent set ups around those later drakes and barons. FPX will convert their herald lead into towers and gold, and they are also the top economy team in the LPL. They lead the league in CSM, GPM, DPM, and Gold spent.
Ig aren't dead in the water as the stats aren't everything; they will have the matchup's blue side. IG is undefeated on blue this split, and FPX is also with their only losses have come on red. IG had better not waste that draft capital on Jhin, Lucian, or Miss Fortune again. FPX is not a team that they can give any advantage to and expect a positive result. The top lane matchup will be exciting, but both theshy and Nuguri have been on split push duty a lot this season.
I give a slight edge to IG in the mid jungle duo, with Xun and Rookie having a bit more experience together than Doinb and Bo. This pair will be IG's primary win condition, as I have top lane even and give the edge bot to FPX. The bottom lane has been the most potent position so far this year, and I think FPX having the edge there puts them over the top. Overall, this is lining up as an FPX win, but with the new jungle mid dynamic and blue side, there is reason to hope for IG.
Oh yes, I promised fireworks, and this one should deliver. Invictus are averaging over 18 deaths per loss, and FPX nearly 18 in wins. IG has the most upside in a victory, with FPX deaths at 21 and their kills per win at 21.5. Both teams come in a little light on the KP% with only 2.1 assists per kill for both, but it will be hard not to full-stack with the potential here.
Top FPX plays
- Lwx - ADC - send in the cats as LWX is set up for another MVP level performance.
- Crisp - SUP - leads the team in KP%
- Bo - JNG - keeping pace with Tian's numbers and better kill share than Doinb.
- Nuguri - TOP - taking Nuguri over Doinb is a risk, but let's call it playing the matchup as theshy is second on IG in death percentage.
Top IG plays
- XUN - JNG - leads the team in both kill metrics, and Bo leads FPX in death percentage.
- Rookie - MID - showdown of the LPL's most loveable mids everyone is a winner.
- Wink - ADC - hopefully, they don't pull the rug out from under his feet in draft, and this match can live up to the hype.
- Baolan - SUP - tough call on the last member of the IG stack, as both Baolan and theshy have run it down at times.
Summary
- TLDR: DRX 2-1, GEN 2-0, V5 2-1, FPX 2-1. IG has the best upside for kills on the slate and is the dog with the best shot to pick up a win. The other favs are pretty secure, I think, but that's why we play the games, amirite?
- The constant roster swaps and the prices have me off V5 a bit today. TT is #notgood, but if you want to get wild, that or Brion is probably your best bet.
- I want this LPL matchup to go all three games and be the banger we're all expecting. Big time matches like this are the kind of things we fans live for, and today it also happens to be the premium fantasy option too. I'm sure it will get scrappy given the history between these two squads, and I'm also sure it will not be a macro showcase like DWG vs. Gen or HLE.
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