RADIO
Last night was not a fun slate to build for, as every lineup felt more than a little gross. Overpaying for teams in rough spots and trying to dodge the duds was the order of the day. I'll take this time to plug the premium slack channel here at Rotoballer quickly. Due to my irregular schedule, most of my articles hit the presses about the time LPL lineups drop at 9 or 10 AM. Over the day, things change, and other angles open up as we talk over the slate.
So yes, sometimes my thoughts on a slate can vary from 9 AM when the article drops til 3 AM when a slate locks. Things change, and chatting with everyone about the slate can open your eyes to new avenues. Yesterday I started moving more to the side of Nonghsim, and I wish I would have slid further that way as they ended up being the key to the slate. Slack gives you that instant access if you question the matchups, the numbers, or the players. This slate has some much better spots than last night, and I'm excited so let's dig in.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, January 24rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM KT Rolster (+290) vs. T1 (-450)
As an unofficial keeper of League of Legends lore, it's my job to remind all you newcomers of a time when the showdown between Korea Telecom Rolster (shorthand for roller coaster, ask their fans) Telecom Team 1 was lovingly known as the Telecom Wars, and it was must-see TV. Since 2018 the rivalry has died down and become a bit one-sided, but us old heads will always remember.
This year's edition of KT Rolster just went down swinging versus HLE after one of the worst baron attempts in recent memory caused them to throw away my underdog win. T1 had a tumultuous series with another ancient enemy in Gen G esports on Thursday in which they lost another game they should have won. It's almost getting to be a habit dropping these games by losing late game team fights. T1 has their eyes on growth throughout the split and into the playoffs with the roster's babies. That loss and their near-miss versus DWG have certainly been good learning experiences for the young T1 team.
T1 has the edge in both the late and early game. They only lag behind KT in vision numbers and baron percentage. After watching KT botch their baron in game two with HLE, I will have to add its early-season caveat. KT is surprisingly just below T1 in CSM, GPM, and DPM. T1 has had the more difficult schedule playing against HLE, DWG, and Gen G, and I believe that is why their metrics are only slightly better than those of KT.
With the bonus of having T1 in the early game, we'll have their lineup pre-lock in case they get up to any funny business, which they could. LCK teams often try their backups against teams they consider to be lower tier, and I doubt that T1 takes KT lightly. They will save the shenanigans for Brion, AFS, or SBG. T1 should smash in this spot. KT average over 18 deaths in their losses; T1 only average 15 in a win, though. That, too, I think, has to do with their strength of schedule, and I like them here.
Top T1 Plays
- Gumayusi - ADC - 72.5% kill participation with 47.7% kill share. This kid is for real.
- Keria - SUP - has continued his all-star level of play from last year. Second on the team in kill participation.
- Elim - JNG - Right down the list again, I like to go by the numbers, and he sits a nose ahead of Faker. I'm also more confident in his jungle match up.
- Faker - MID - the old man has still got it, but his matchup into Ucal isn't the best.
7:00 AM: Gen G (-275) vs. Hanwa Life Esports (+195)
Gen G, fresh off a win over T1, now faces another top-level team in the LCK in HLE. Deft reappeared on Friday AM to remind us that this team is more than just Chovy. The remade HLE roster is still working out some kinks while Gen G remains steady as ever.
WOW, I did not expect this, but when I looked back at last year, DRX went 3-0 versus Gen G. Keep in mind that this HLE squad has the two primary carries from that DRX team, apologies to the real MVP Pyosik. All three matches went the distance, and if you recall the playoff series, it was Gen G who was up 2-0 until there was a massive crash, which caused a three-hour delay. After the game resumed, on a different patch, no less, Gen G was never the same, and it allowed DRX to complete the reverse sweep. Long story short, a better version of this HLE team was narrowly able to defeat Gen G last year.
Now minus their two stud rookies (Keria to T1 and Pyosik stayed with DRX), the old warhorses must saddle up for another battle. The supporting staff on HLE leaves a lot to be desired, and Gen G is very clearly the better team here. HLE has been sloppy, as you would expect from a rebuilt team in the off-season, so they are giving over 17 deaths per loss. I could see Gen G scoring well here, especially Rascal after what we saw D07an do to the HLE tops on Friday. Gen's next match is on Wednesday against DWG, and if you're looking for another excuse to grab the underdog here, maybe you can catch them peeking ahead.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - second in KP%, and he leads the team in KS%.
- Rascal - TOP - Good matchup, and he is tied with BDD for second on the team in kill share.
- Gen G - TEAM - HLE does give over a nice amount of kills, but Gen G doesn't have superior kill participation numbers overall, averaging only two assists per kill. I always like their team slot as they are a very by the book team.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: RW (+190) vs. V5 (-275)
V5 has been off since their victory over BLG on Monday. They have another big showdown with RNG just around the corner on Tuesday, but I'm not concerned about them looking ahead with the whole week to prep for both matches. RW is still waiting for Betty to clear quarantine, and they have been sluggish since their win over TES. I think that we'll see that worrying trend continue.
V5 has every statistical advantage that they could need over RW. Early game, late game, towers, herald, drakes, baron, and vison are all in favor of Victory 5. V5's GPM, DPM, and CSM are also superior to that of RW. On a player for player basis, too, V5 seems to hold the advantage. Plus, they have the lord on their side, so sayeth the church of ppGAWD! Since the starters have released, this betting line has begun to move closer together. Aodi recently of EDG will be starting in the top lane from V5. Trigger will return to the ADC role instead of Y4, and last time out, he wasn't so hot. Both players will be huge sub risks anything sniffing a loss, and they will be yanked.
RW die almost 19 times per loss, and that's something I'm looking to target. These V5 players will be among my favorites on Sunday morning. RW are often our favorite dogs, but they have been awful since the TES upset. Watching TES play recently, you can tell that it had more to do with their style than RW. I no longer think that V5 sweep here, thanks to the double swap coming through with Aodi and Trigger. I still like them to get the win, but I'd counsel you to caution with those players. Stick to the guys we know here, and increase the chance of upset 10-15%
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG - Just going down the KP% list #1
- Mole - MID - #2
- Ppgod - SUP - #3
6:00 AM: LNG (+185) vs. WE (-265)
No other wild picks from me today; I must be saving the upset special for the final match. LNG has had a week off to prep for this match, and I like their chances here. They are coming in off a 2-1 victory over the likes of TT, and I think they were trying some things out, so I'm not concerned about dropping that game. WE haven't lost a series yet, and are tied with EDG and RNG atop the table like it's 2017 all over again.
Let's take a closer look at this matchup; LNG has the edge early with better rates in first turret, rift herald, first blood, and gold differential at fifteen minutes. WE have been better late game, and with their objective control holding better rates in barons and drakes. LNG has a slight edge in vision, which should help them around those monster objectives. This match is going to be closer than I think most will consider it.
WE have beaten IG and V5, both were from the blue side, and LNG is on blue today. I think Tarzan can match Beishang in his ability to impact the lanes. Undefeated teams don't last long in the LPL, and I want to be ahead of the curve on looking for these first losses. LNG's best player has been Icon, and he will present yet another tough test for Shanks. Plus, WE average over 20 deaths in their losses this year.
See all kinds of reasons to look for this LNG upset over WE. Oh, and Zoom said on his stream that LNG has been beating good teams in scrims and look healthy. LNG, too, gives up over 17 deaths in their losses so that WE can be another strong target. They are mighty expensive, though, and might be hard-pressed to pay off those tags.
Top LNG plays
- Icon - MID - 84% KP and 34% KS are insane, and he probably has the best matchup going against the rookie Shanks.
- Light - ADC - 71.4% KS and 30% KS is solid, and you know WE will bring the action to the bot lane.
- Lwandy - SUP - Matches his adc in KP%
- Tarzan - JNG - matches Beishang in farm, ahead in KP% slightly behind in KS%, but well ahead in vision.
Top WE plays
- Juimeng- ADC - Leads the team in both kill metrics.
- Beishang - JNG - always Bae.
- Breathe - TOP - Will likely see both LNG's top laners in this match, and their inconsistency could be his success.
- Shanks - MID - tough matchup with Icon, but ranks highly in KP% and KS%.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0, GEN 2-0, V5 2-1, and LNG 2-1. WE is the favorite for a reason and can be a strong target in their own right. RW could be worth a long shot if V5 gets burned by playing the subs, but I won't be going there. You can also take a shot on HLE if you're feeling yourself.
- You can build some very nice looking lineups using only the favorites. T1 and Gen G have nearly identical kill projections for me tomorrow. WE come in about a half kill higher and V5 slightly above them, but it's LNG that takes the cake around 19 per. The LCK dogs are much lower.
- Just for reference, because people often ask, I do not cover LEC or LCS. I try to watch them when I'm able, but staying up almost every night for LCK/LPL action makes it hard to spend all day watching inferior leagues, especially when compare to sleep.
- This slate is already waaaaaay better than last night with some spots I'm going to feel very good about clicking. I can't wait to see you out there! This one will be the last four-game slate until Wednesday AM, so let's clean up!
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