RADIO
I should have stuck to my guns on Wednesday, from a week ago when I attacked AFS as the second-worst team in the LCK. The late line movement suckered me in, and my night was lost right off the bat. The DRX side of that match was as bloody as I hoped, and IG was less so in a sweep of eStar. I was dead wrong about SNG and RA, and SNG needs to get off Miss Fortune as it was not last year.
All the stars are out tonight in the LCK with three of the top four teams in action, and that means we get to see two of them face off in the new-look T1 and Gen G. Two big favorites in the LPL, so no worries there, he said while rolling his eyes. Well, I got what I wanted yesterday in terms of a sole winner of the 20k on DK and a wide-open slate. Now today, I'd like to try winning. It looks fun; let's get on to it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Thursday, January 21th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM T1 (-135) vs. Gen G (Even)
Now, this is more like it; after yesterday's slop, the LCK is serving up one of its choicest cuts today. Gen G finally got the T1 monkey off their back last summer and again in the playoffs, but this isn't your father's T1. T1's new liquid metal roster is capable of reforging itself seemingly at a moment's notice. Will Gen G be prepared for the explosion of brilliance that is Gumayusi or not.
I always feel like the less I think about dfs, and the more I think about the league, the better off I am. Today though, it feels like my hand is forced a bit. There are three big favorites that I'm confident in winning. I need a dog to stack up those guys the way I want or need a cheap fave to stack them up the best I can. No matter who I think is winning this match, and I'm probably playing both sides of it in almost every lineup I build.
Both teams have focused bot so far this year, and that's where the best player on each team resides. I might be wrong here, but I think Ruler can handle Gumy in lane. Neither one will fight alone for long as both junglers will do their best to influence the matchup. Clid has been looking like SofM disguised so far this split controlling the map by hoovering up all the jungle camps and forcing the enemy jungler into the poor house. Elim has been playing more to his laners. Elim's strat seems to be the correct route to success this split, but he will be less impactful if he is denied gold and exp.
Gen G here by just a hair, T1 had some problems closing out versus DWG, and the newly constructed roster suffered a bit in late-game pressure situations. We finally get T1 in the early match to see their starters ahead of time, but we don't know how they will respond if they drop a game. Swapping Junglers was always a Kkoma strat, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see Oner or Cuzz come out of the tunnel to start round two if T1 drops the opener. I lean Gen G for the experience and continuity, but I wouldn't be shocked if T1 show out.
Top T1 Plays
- Gumayusi - ADC - alarming 51.3% kill share.
- Keria - SUP - Right there with his superstar adc.
- Elim - JNG - Someone has to set the table for this bot duo.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC - Who else?
- Rascal - TOP - been a monster this year, well, all years.
- Bdd - MID - leads the team in kill participation.
7:00 AM: Freit Brion (+800) vs. Damwon KIA (-2500)
After banging out a monster article yesterday with several tight matchups that I always feel the need to over-explain, we've got a couple of softballs on tap today. DWG rebounded nicely after the close shave with T1 to dunk on NSRF for the sixth time already this year, counting KeSPA. Brion was predictably bad against AFS, but there was hope as their hyper scaling comp started to come online late in game two as AFS struggled to close the game cleanly.
DWG win. That's it, that's the tweet. Fredit Brion give up 16.2 deaths per loss, including a nine kill win for Gen G and a twelve kill win for KT. Even though DWG is a LOCK to sweep this match, I don't see playing with their food enough to pay off their salaries. Fredit is just too slow. I've no need to sell you on DWG plays, and you already know who makes the world champs tick and why.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- Showmaker - MID
- Ghost - ADC
- Beryl - SUP
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: TT (+500) vs. WE (-1000)
WE fresh off a win over IG get a lovely day off here before their next matchup with LNG on Sunday. TT got a game off an LNG squad playing down, and the questions here for WE are similar. Will they complete the sweep, punt a game, or join the club of upper echelon LPL squads that drop series they have no business losing.
I don't think that will be the case here unless TT catch WE looking ahead to the LNG match on Saturday. TT has lost to two pretty good teams, and WE have beaten two pretty good teams. TT hasn't been terrible early in games and leads WE in rift herald percentage, first drake rate, and first turrets. WE lead in gold differential @ 15 minutes, first blood, overall drake %, and by a wide margin in baron stats. We could see WE fall behind early in these games and then fight their way back into them, making them score very well indeed.
Even looking at the players' stats, surprisingly, you see the TT guys very close to their WE counterparts. Breathe lags behind Chelizi in kp%, ks%, cspm, and he is virtually equal in DPM even though Breathe's KDA is 4x higher than Chelizi. It goes like that up and down the roster. Beishang is the difference, and he has massive leads in all those categories.
TT has had problems drafting and with their objective play in the mid to late game. Their shot-calling has been sketchy, and that has led to some split fights around objectives. Beishang should establish a lead for WE through the jungle and translate it to the bottom lane as Juimeng is the squad's primary focus. Juimeng has been behind early in lane, but that is due to WE drafting a more powerful late-game carry such as Xayah or Kasia with regularity. I prefer that to Jhin, which has maintained its popularity in the LPL, if not it's win rate.
Team WE have had excellent team fight coordination, and TT has not, and now they will be starting Twila at mid. Captain has more upside, and such an early swap away from him seems premature to me. WE should be able to capitalize on increase confusion in the TT squad here. I like them to sweep. I know that we can't have nice things around these parts, and WE do have that LNG match looming, but with the swaps come added confidence in WE.
Top WE Plays:
- Juimeng- ADC - Leads team in kill share and kill participation.
- Beishang - JNG - Second to his ADC in both metrics.
- Shanks - MID - the rookie looks good and is second in KP and fourth in KS.
- Breathe - TOP - Great addition to this team third in kill share.
6:00 AM: OMG (+290) vs. RNG (-425)
RNG versus SNG was an odd one, with both teams opting into more passive scaling compositions, and I was not impressed with SNG. RNG, on the other hand, played very well. They knew what SNG's comps did well and how to avoid that. It may have been boring, but RNG smartly played it to show the restraint necessary to not rush into SNG's fights.
OMG have managed to steal away a couple of games, one each from EDG and Estar so far this split. That's the highlight thus far. RNG has looked great versus TT and patient versus SNG. With Xiaohu in the top lane, they have a ton of flexibility. Royal's vision control has been superb in their opening matches, and that's allowed Cryin and Xiaohu to enter fights before the enemies are aware of their presence. It has also given them excellent baron, and drake takes, often allowing them to collect a pick before the other team can set up.
OMG will be starting Bright in the top lane, and he is their backup mid laner. So there will be four mids active in this game, so we could get some team comps with some zazz! Champion pools are a bit shared between the solo lanes, so I don't expect it to be a big issue for Bright to start out of position. The only thing is Xiaohu is well versed in playing tanky and supportive champs from years of protecting his puppy. I expect RNG to sweep OMG under the rug quickly.
Top RNG plays
- WEI - JNG - Leads the team in kill participation and kill share. XLB who?
- Gala - ADC - Sits just behind WEI in the metrics.
- Cryin - MID - Currently behind Xiaohu in stats, but I expect that to normalize a bit.
- Ming - SUP -Sits just behind the leaders in KP%.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-1, DWG 2-0, WE 2-0, RNG 2-0. Chalk fest, and I hate myself for it already. I was depressed before covid made it cool. Both LPL dogs seem like LOOOOOONG shots to me today, but you can always fire those bullets. Scrappy league, but WE have slowed down some from last year with a better mid and top; they don't need to force as many fights.
- The T1/Gen match makes or breaks things, I think, and I don't see a way around it unless you're going to rock a bizarre combo from the LPL favs. Or shoot your shot on one of the big underdogs.
- With TT and OMG top five in the LPL in deaths per game, I like the LPL faves for the kill upside today. Damwon seems too expensive in a spot where they only need ten kills to end the game. Hopefully, we can subvert this chalk and make our way to the top. See you all out there.
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