RADIO
The most likely outcomes yesterday held up in something of a surprise, and the favorites both swept. They both wavered a bit in game two but ultimately got the job done. It was a Fanduel style lineup that took down DK. LGD team punt got double ADC, which was enough to fend off the next closest lineup with a top lane one-off by a mere eight cs. .16 points were the difference between 7k and 75 bucks for the four-way tie for 22nd.
Today we gladly welcome back the LCK to give us some variety. We've got a monster slate that looks very juicy for GPP action; any of these matches can go either way. Dk obliged us by throwing out a 70k Shock Blast with 20k up top, and for once, I think someone may take that down solo. FanDuel, well, they do have a 1k to first Nexus, and that might be the biggest one of the year so far. So let's get on to this one.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, January 20th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Liiv SBG (+105) vs. Afreeca (-145)
It's everyone's favorite throwers, and I'm not talking about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. SBG, the little engine that couldn't, and AFS, the team that was so bad they made themselves into the optimal DFS play by being unable to finish off an academy level team cleanly. Let's take a look at both and see who stinks more, and I'll do my best to keep my personal tilt space off your lawn.
AFS have been slowplaying the LCK thus far, and I get it. AFS is one of the bottom tier teams in my estimation and have faced two others in their tier with DRX and Brion. It makes sense that they would try to play a slower-paced error-free game, and allow their opponents to beat themselves. The funny thing is AFS has the lowest combined kill deaths per minute but the highest early game rating in the league right now. 80% first blood, 100% rift herald, 100% first turret, 100% first three turrets, and the second-best average gold differential at 15 minutes behind only T1. Their mid to late game rating is second-worst in the league, though, as they gave up early leads in both their losses to DRX. Who's last you ask, why Liiv Sandbox, of course.
SBG the worst mid to late team in the league; I get it. They were even with KT despite getting out drafted in both games until disastrous dragon fights. Their team fighting and objective setups have been awful to start the season, and even with the time off since Saturday, I don't think that's something that fixes itself quickly. With the way they have been playing, I can't take them here. AFS seems to be on the same page with Kiin regaining some of his old form.
Give me AFS to 2-0 this one, and as I called them the 2nd worst team in the league, I have to eat some crow and bump them up to 7th. They might be closer to my pre-KeSPA evaluation than the 0-4 Cup performance showed. SBG will need to give me something to build off in this match before thinking about them again in a positive light. SBG is near the bottom of the league in pace, and I'm not fond of this match for dfs. AFS proved me wrong last time out by sloppily closing games with Brion, which led to fantasy success. AFS does have some value pricing, though, so I'm conflicted.
Top AFS Plays
- Dread - JNG - Tough matchup into Croco, who I like, but second on the team in kill share percentage.
- Bang - ADC - He's outperforming his numbers from last year but right on pace with historical AFS adc numbers. The team system focuses on quality adc play. He's providing.
- Lehends - SUP - Leads the team in kill participation; the veteran is a great duo partner for Bang creating one of the most experienced lanes in the LCK.
- Kiin - TOP - The veteran is in a very winnable matchup versus Summit, who leads SBG in death percentage.
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7:00 AM: DRX (+135) vs. Nongshim RedForce (-190)
Week two and I finally get to HAMMER Nongshim. I've mentioned my preference for them, and versus a depleted DRX squad that is hemorrhaging fantasy points is a perfect spot to get in right. We'll have to dig a bit deeper on this one.
Right off the top, looking at the statistics for this young season, with both teams having played one good team and one bad team, NSRF look like they're in trouble. If we look back to KeSPA Cup stats Peanut and the boys are on much better footing. I also think that DWG and Liiv are a higher aggregate level of competition than HLE and AFS. I'm willing to discount some of NSRF in season woes due to that strength of schedule.
Talent-wise, I am glad Kingen is getting a chance to shine again in a full-time role, and I think he and Rich are a match for each other in the top lane. Peanut is a step below Pyosik in the jungle but may have a few tricks up his sleeve that the youngster isn't ready for. SOLKA has been a pleasant surprise in the mid lane, and given his performance thus far in the LCK, I give him the edge over Bay. The ADCs are close, but I'll give the edge to deokdam as he is more versatile. At support, Kellin has a clear advantage. Bot duo to NSRF, mid jungle duo to DRX, and top lane push. Yikes, again, that's close, but I think more power picks are available in the bot lane at the moment than the mid. I also like Peanut's experience to mitigate some of the DRX edge.
Even with some of their statistical deficiencies, NSRF holds the edge in first turret, rift herald, first drake, and overall dragon rate. DRX leads in first blood percentage, barons, and vision score. Both teams are prone to tilt, as we saw in game two versus Liiv for NSRF and game three versus HLE for DRX. Whoever gets off to a better start could put the other team off their game mentally, and DRX will get the blue side for the matchup, which has shown to be a slight edge globally thus far. DRX also seems to have a slight edge in drafts thus far, so while I rushed into this thinking about all-inning NSRF, I might be having a change of heart.
With the number of deaths these two teams put up in losses, and possibly people being scared away by the LCK late game, I will target both sides of this one heavily. I lean to the side of NSRF slightly, but DRX will come at a nice discount allowing you to ram and jam some prominent captains.
Top NSRF Plays:
- Peanut - JNG - second on the team in both kill participation and kill share.
- Deokdam - ADC - leads in kill share and has a nice matchup into Bao and Becca, who leads the team with an insane 30.9 death percentage.
- Kellin - SUP - Leads the team in KP% at 84.8!
- Rich - TOP - Gets in trouble going for solo kills too often but can snowball with them as well. A double-edged sword, but third on the team in kill share.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG - Led the team in kill share and carried the series versus AFS.
- SOLKA - MID - Leads the team in KP% should win lane versus Bay.
- Kingen - TOP - If Rich tilts, he goes all the way.
- Bao - ADC - Just behind Pyosik for the team lead in KS%.
LPL Matches
4:00 AM: IG (-575) vs. Estar (+345)
IG, you dirty nasty filthy rotten sumbitches, I don't ever wanna see you around these parts again. As soon as this line came out, I told everyone to hammer it, as eStar opened at +450, moved to +345, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go further before lock. Estar dropped a wild game one to OMG on Monday and is back in action again here. I'm not going to hold that one against them as I think they were a little looking ahead to IG. IG continues to rely on their talent, and the gap they once held over the rest of the league has evaporated.
The only edge I'm willing to concede in favor of IG is in the mid lane, per usual. Theshy has been a liability (unreliable) in the top lane, and he will be facing his former understudy from IG youth Zs. If he loses his mind when Breathe or Bin kills him, imagine the tilt when a kid who used to sit on the bench behind him does it. Xun has been a pleasant surprise for IG, H4cker has too for this eStar squad, and his veteran status gives him an edge. Rookie is the only one on the team able to outplay consistently, and I need to see him get more game-changing champs in the mid lane. Wink has played well thus far, but any edge he has gained Baolan has tossed away. Whereas ShiauC anchors the Estar bot lane, and his steady play will give them an advantage.
With their old win lane win game style not working out so well for them anymore, IG needs to refocus. Rookie will naturally win his lane, but with a bit of jungle focus, as we saw in their first series, he can SMASH it. That would allow him and Xun to roam as a duo, and often with Baolan in tow. IG has also continued to struggle with objective setups and vision control. You could see this was evident in LNG's loss when Lwandy was able to get his wrap around flank off from behind the baron pit. IG was winning game two until that play ended it.
Estar hasn't had the best early games, but compared to IG, they are doing fine. Their vision advantage should afford them better objective control than this reeling IG squad. ShiauC's play and shot-calling have been vital in eStar's mid/late game rating being second in the league to JDG. Estar has also performed better in drafts, with IG being very hit or miss.
I think the one thing you can say is that IG has had a much more difficult early schedule. They faced JDG, LNG, and WE, all three likely playoff teams, and two possible top-five squads. Estar has faced BLG, RW, and OMG, which includes only one probably playoff squad. IG also has a full week off after this match to collect themselves, and I think they view this match as a big statement to make heading into that break. Estar, too are off for a week, and they took OMG lightly on Sunday, likely in preparation for this match.
So did I write 1000 words (give or take) telling you how eStar will win, only to pick IG... yeah, I did. Invictus has had a rough start, which is partially due to the strength of the competition. Either that or I'm an addict. Seriously though, I will be likely targeting either side of the matchup with both teams over 18 deaths in their losses so far. It will be tough to pass on the discount that eStar offers in the pricing, and IG will have some discounted ownership after a few disappointing losses. The main problem with IG is they have such low kill participation numbers, and I attribute that to their willingness to fight at a disadvantage so frequently. Be very selective with your IG pieces.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID - Leads team in kill participation and third in kill share; he's the win condition for this team and is my priority from IG.
- Xun - JNG - leads the team in kill share and is tied for second in kill participation.
- Wink - ADC - second in both kill metrics, and if you play IG and fade Rookie (don't btw), the other carry is the piece you want.
- theshy - TOP - I only mention him because he has been AWFUL. He wasn't great last year, but this year's numbers are down 33% in kill share, 42% in kill share, 19% in DPM. Forgetting 2018-19, if he merely regresses to last year's mean, he could have a nice scoreline at low ownership. I know; stop trying to make fetch happen.
Top ES Plays:
- Rat - ADC - Leads team in kill share and third in kill participation.
- ShiauC - SUP - second in all LPL in KP% through five games. Likely the best support in the league.
- Irma - MID - the rookie looks good and is second in KP and KS.
- H4cker - JNG - needs to up the KP% third in kill share, but putting up good farm numbers against stiff competition thus far.
6:00 AM: SNG (-180) vs. Rare Atom (+130)
SNG versus RNG was an odd one, with both teams opting into more passive scaling compositions, and I was not impressed. SNG was very lethargic and drafted as such, this forced them to wait on RNG to pile into them, but RNG did not comply. RA got dumped by TES, who finally showed a modicum of restraint. Not a great series to show us what this RA squad is about, but the 3-0 series sweep that RA had over SNG at the Demacia Cup wasn't accurate either. SNG played Jinjao in the bot lane, and it wasn't pretty. We'll get a better look at both of them here.
Suning won both series versus RA (ni Vici) last year, but both were a 2-1 affair. SNG dropped the first game of each series but adjusted well and reverse swept both. This year, we only have one series to go on for RA, and Top Esports drilled them. SNG only has two series and their match with TES ending in an SNG sweep. It's tough to draw much from those outcomes, and we're just going to have to wing it a bit.
Just going up and down the roster, SNG has the edge in the bot lane. Haunfeng over Iboy is pretty apparent, but we are all worried about the loss of Swordart to TSM. Don't worry, because Hang is #BAD, ON is a talented newcomer, and I'm not concerned about him integrating into the roster. Angel has come into his own since joining the staring roster full time, and he should have the edge over FoFo. Cube is good, but he's no Bin, and that same description applies in the jungle. I think SNG will get this win, but I don't know how much of this game I want for DFS. SNG and RA (VG then) were the third and fourth slowest paced teams in the LPL last summer, and even with RA getting a new coaching staff, I don't see either team altering its approach considerably.
Top SNG plays
- Huanfeng - ADC - Tops the team in both KS% and KP% this year, proud member of #Teamsex
- Angel - MID - Second in both metrics to the young ADC.
- Bin - TOP - third in both metrics, I just went right down the line.
Summary
- TLDR: AFS 2-0, NSRF 2-1, IG 2-1, and SNG 2-0. DRX and Estar are the most likely upset spots. Rare Atom will likely be the lowest owned team on the slate after getting drilled by TES.
- AFS doesn't have much upside unless they struggle to close out again, prolonging the games. DRX and NSRF are a lot closer, but if you look at these teams' deaths in losses so far, you'll see why I'm interested.
- IG Estar is probably the biggest match on the slate for kill upside, with both teams over 18 deaths in their losses. IG's sloppy play has them over 20 kills in their wins as well, although I've found the death per loss stat to correlate better to DFS performances. SNG should beat RA but should and would sheer no sheep, as they say.
- With the tight matches on this slate, it's tough to project ownership, but I'd be shocked if RA weren't the lowest. SBG, too, will be under 10%, with AFS poking into the high teens. DRX, NGRF will be close, with the fave at 20% and the dog at 15%. I'd estimate IG and eStar to be similar but maybe a touch higher due to no concerns over starting lineups. Leaving SNG to be around 25% as the highest owned team on the slate.
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