RADIO
A stunning comeback from DWG saved the day for some folks. Not me. I faded all LCK matches yesterday, eschewing the safety for the more exciting upside of the LPL matchups. Too many hedge lineups and not enough eStar. Felt like I had a pretty good grasp of the slate with the LCK options being very safe (until T1 screwed everyone again) but not having a ton of upside. It didn't turn out great, but we got some of our buy-in back, and we're on to tomorrow.
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I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, January 16th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Liiv Sandbox (-145) vs. KT Rolster (Even)
League of throws was in play the last time SBG hit the rift; fortunately for yours indeed, they scored very well as dogs even in a loss. Now we'll get a chance to see them as the favs in a match with KT Rolster, who got drilled by Gen G on opening day.
Another slow LCK match between teams that aren't so hot, and I'm not looking forward to an entire year of these. I did pick the first one correctly with DRX over AFS. I'm hesitant here because I think KT wins, but I could just be tilted that Liiv threw away the win. I also think SBG win, or I'm overreacting to KT getting drilled by Gen G. I can't draw too many parallels to the Kespa cup as KT was experimenting. I also hate recommending hedging every match as it makes me feel like a politician.
We'll go with the gut here and what worked last time. It's the diffy in the jiffy for me. I'll take Croco over Bonnie, and if KT runs Blank out, they could be in worse shape yet. SBG will eventually be able to translate an early game edge into a series win. I can see this one going either way, and I don't blame you if you side with the dogs for the savings and sit back to wait for the throw from SBG.
Top Liiv Plays
- Croco - JNG - Led the team in kill participation and was second in kill share in KeSPA Cup play.
- Route - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS%.
- Effort - SUP - right down the list as he was third on the team in KP%.
- Summit - TOP - He gets a chance to pick on D07an next.
7:00 AM: HLE (-245) vs. DRX (+175)
Revenge abounds as the forgotten one Pyosik meets two of his former teammates in Deft and Chovy from HLE. In comparison, they confront their former team. This one should be a bit of a walk in the park for HLE. The problem with that is I think Deft is DUST, Pyosik is a stud, Kingen is better than Morgan, and both supports suck. So it will come down to who carries harder, Chovy or Pyosik, and while I might not be a member of the church, I think Chovy is the correct answer.
While I believe this will be closer than it needs to be due to Pyosik, that will likely help buoy up both sides' scores. Chovy will prove too vital in the end, and Deft should be able to crawl across the finish line.
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - MID - Will do most of the heavy lifting for this squad.
- Arthur - JNG - I think he gets the short side of the matchup, but he will also be a part of the superior mid-jungle duo.
- Deft - ADC - Will still clean up kills and finish off team fights after farming up a storm, even with one foot in the grave.
- Vsta - SUP - I don't think much of the support on either team, but the one will be on the winning team.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Victory 5 (-475) vs. LGD (+305)
I'm not trying to short change anyone on my analysis or story-telling, but one thing I am trying to streamline my writing process. That and layout my thoughts a bit more clearly. So we're on to a quick introduction of this new look LGD squad, and then I'll tell you why they will lose.
So now about LGD. They are a large Esports org with many divisions, not just LoL. Even though they qualified for Worlds last year, they have financial troubles, which is why the World's team members left. LGD couldn't afford to keep anyone besides Kramer, and he is still in quarantine and will miss the team's first two matches. So the starting five will be Cult Kui Uniboy Garvey and Chance. Cult should be the backup top laner to Garvey, covering ADC for Kramer for this match and the next. There is speculation he will remain in the ADC role as a backup. Uniboy came over from the PCS, and those of you who watched World's might remember his star turn for PSG Talon in a replacement role. Kui calls up from their LDL team and should have synergy with Garvey and Chance, who also came up together. In three matches time that is when the whole squad is together.
We've seen V5 already as they lost to WE in a 2-1 fashion. That is nothing to scoff at, as I think this WE team is a top-five team this spring. It feels like Trigger was just announced as going to V5 yesterday, and yet here he is. I like this team, but I don't know about this addition. I also doubt we'll get much of a feel for how this will work out today either. V5 has a match with BLG coming up, and that feels like a better test of how this move will pan out. We saw yesterday with eStar over RW what can happen when a team doesn't roll with their main ADC, and we also saw the problems LGD had starting a top laner bot during NEST and Demacia.
I don't see anything but the sweep for V5 in this one. Garvey is secretly an excellent top lane prospect. If I had to pick between a new ADC with a language barrier versus someone who is still new to its role, it's going to be Trigger. Kui and Chance do have some history together, but that's on a mid-tier LDL squad while this V5 team's core remains playoff-caliber. Trigger isn't exactly a top tier ADC import coming from APK Prince. He didn't light the LCK on fire, but I've got to believe in the surrounding pieces and stick to it.
Top Estar Plays:
- ppgod - SUP - He's always in play when V5 hit the rift. Even though he won't be supporting a top tier adc, he still will lead the team in kill participation.
- Weiwei - JNG - Number two to the Peng Peng Lordt in KP%
- Mole - MID - likely picks up some of the slack for his squad.
- Trigger - ADC - He's cheap on DK and on a big fav facing off against a converted top laner.
6:00 AM: EDG (+180) vs. FPX (-260)
Both teams won their openers, and coincidentally they both played OMG. Also, coincidentally my OMG gun is officially out of bullets. Even more coincidence, both are working on integrating high profile Korean imports into already successful teams. One looked a bit smoother in their opener, but even Viper said it's easier to play top lane because all you have to watch the ADC put on a show and yell NICEUU!
FPX did look a bit more polished in their opener versus OMG than EDG did. It likely is much easier to integrate a top than an ADC smart ass quotes from ADC's aside. We know that MMA math (the transitive property) doesn't work well in sports, but FPX did 2-0 where EDG only 2-1 over OMG. You could see some sluggishness in the way EDG arrived at plays, especially early. FunPlus has had the historical edge since Doinb joined, but curiously in all that time, they have only swept EDG once.
That sounds right to me FPX win this one 2-1. EDG can ban out LWX, and Flandre will pose a much bigger threat to Nuguri in the top lane than did new quick aside, how INSANE are LPL top laner, for real. Tian's will improve his pathing this year with the arrival of Nuguri the pressure he brings. This one is a prime cut, and I want to target it quite a bit. I will likely take a few EDG shots because their bot lane is better, and the top won't be free for FPX.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID - Still the engine that drives the team
- LWX - ADC - Historically has been the second fiddle here, but I'd like to fade him for GPPs due to his insane 54.5% kill share in the first series. That's an outlier and will return to the median.
- Crisp - SUP - Always out on the map supporting Doinb's roams more so than LWX.
- Tian - JNG - Friday is his third anniversary in the league; it sounds like a narrative to me!
- Nuguri - TOP - Yes, I know this is the entire team, thanks. Just noting that after a lackluster debut from a fantasy perspective (thanks split push Camile), he may go a tick under-owned relative to say LWX as part of a stack.
Top EDG plays:
- Scout - MID - Leads team in KP% on the year.
- Jiejie - JNG - Good matchup versus Tian in case the anniversary narrative expires.
- Viper - ADC - Probably the main win condition for the team if they are to win.
- Meiko - SUP - Always better on aggressive champions with Alistar Leona and Rakan making appearances he could pop.
Summary
- TLDR : Liiv 2-1, HLE 2-0, V5 2-0, FPX 2-1. Normally this is where I tell you both LPL dogs are live, but I don't think LGD are even with Trigger being new to the team. Also, I'm not fond of EDG much. I'm confident in FPX. I think they will be the highest owned team on the slate as they have the most name value.
- HLE, I think, might have some sneaky upside since DRX have been behind early in their games and try to fight uphill. The season is young, but they have several games in which they have surrendered 20 deaths.
- The first LCK bout is probably the best bet for an upset on the slate, and you could see KT score well if SBG is up early and they need to come back, which I would guess is the case. We noticed that formula work out well for JDG two slates ago.
- Today marks a week since we've been back, and with the LCS lock-in tournament kicking off this afternoon and LEC starting next weekend, the entire LOL world will be back in full effect. Thanks for stopping by, and I look forward to seeing you all out there on the fantasy rift.
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