RADIO
JDG turned the slate on its head with a huge performance against BLG. Minus the incredible inting by BLG, I nailed that one JDG could out team fight my BLG on their way to victory. SNG and RNG was an L for me and a bizarre series overall as both teams opted into scaling options handshaking on late-game comps. Both LCK matches went as expected; even though I didn't get the SBG win I craved, they did outscore as underdogs, and that was good to see. We get the World Champs in action today, and I can't wait!
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I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, January 15th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Fredit Brion (+575) vs. Gen G (-1200)
Generation Gaming stomped their way into the optimal lineup on Wednesday AM. I didn't have enough of Rascal, but I don't know how much of them I want on Friday. Brion played at the slowest pace during the KeSPA cup, and I have them rated as the worst LCK team, just below AFS.
Formerly known as HyFresh Blade and Brion Blade, this team has been a staple at the top of Challengers Korea for a few years now. They could not break through via promotions like some of the other top CK teams did, but with franchising now in the LCK, they could acquire a spot in the top league, sadly though their roster retains many elements of a CK squad.
An uninspired collection of rookies and over the hill vets makes Fredit Brion a threat to finish dead last spring 2021. Their support Delight is probably the highest-ranked prospect on the roster. He was once a trainee on both T1 and Gen G, so he comes with a high pedigree. Hoya, the top laner, was a backup on Griffin back when they were good, but we've never really seen what he can do at the LCK level. Umti, Chieftan, and Lava all fall under the uninspiring veteran label. We've seen these guys bounce around the LCK and LPL for a while now without much notable success. Hena, their ADC, is a bit of a late bloomer. He is 21 but with only one year of CK experience under his belt.
Gen G is a mortal lock here; I mean, come on, it's not like this is the LPL we're talking about here. If I'm using anyone here, Ruler and the team slot will be due to the lack of upside and competition. I won't chase Rascal as his kill share in the opener was nearly double that of his summer split average. Can't miss cash game plays across the board.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC - Always in play as the top scoring option on the team.
- Clid - JNG - should bounce back after a low scoring effort in the first series.
- Bdd - MID - See above without D07an HARD inting into Rascal, the kills should be spread more.
- Gen G - TEAM - Always an option for one-off, outscored both SUP and JNG last match. Right Matty?
7:00 AM: DWG (-425) vs. T1 (+275)
You youngsters won't recall, but the LCK used to have a little something called the Telecom Wars. When perennial league winners SKT T1 and KT Rolster would meet in a slobber knocker twice a split (the T in both stand for telecom hence the name). That used to be the granddaddy of 'em all in the LCK. Gen G versus T1 took it's place for a while because meeting in a world final will do that for a rivalry. I think we can crown DWG versus T1 as the new LCK War; at least we could if T1 steps their game up. DWG is 6-3 in series and 14-9 in gamescore over T1 since joining the league in 2019, but with T1 signing, DWG's coaches in the offseason business is fixing to pick up.
DWG seems to have not missed a beat as they steamrolled the Kespa Cup, with Khan replacing Nuguri in the top lane. Keep in mind the plot twist that DWG signed former T1 coach Kkoma after his short stint in the LPL. Unfortunately for DWG, the team he coached is not the one we saw T1 roll out in their opener. He won't have much insider info to impart.
T1 fooled us all on Tuesday, but maybe, and hear me out here, that's a good thing? We've got a T1 squad with a new staff that knows their opponent inside and out. The late LCK game burned us Tuesday, yes, but we can count on T1 being virtually unowned in this spot. We can not rely on them to start anyone that played Tuesday, and it will just matter whether or not you have the risk tolerance or bankroll to shoot your shot here. DWG has a set lineup; they are fantasy faves and often score well. I think they will be highly owned, so even a bit of T1 exposure would yield a ton of leverage on the field.
DWG has history on their side in the matchup, but this new T1 roster could throw a wrinkle into the mix. Beating a sloppy understaffed HLE squad does not a world champion make, and I think we see DWG continue their winning ways. T1 executed flawlessly in game one, almost like an NFL team with their first 15 scripted plays. In-game three, we saw that Gymayusi could carry them, but game two was a bit off-script. DWG may have lost Nuguri, but they retain the world title core of Canyon and Showmaker. DWG win this one 2-0.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG - Led the team in KP% and KS% at world's last year.
- Showmaker - MID - In summer, T1 started Clozer versus DWG in week ten, and Showmaker put up 97.06 DKP with 46.7 coming in game one alone.
- Ghost - ADC - Led the team in KP% at KeSPA second in KS% to Canyon.
- Beryl - SUP - gone are the days of him running the bot lane on Pantheon, but still a solid contributor that I rate a step ahead of Khan, the top laner will be the lower owned option.
Top T1 Plays:
- DONT /sarc
- I'm guessing that they roll out the lineup from Wednesday ultimate gpp leverage the end. The most risky play makes your nose hairs curl for a good reason.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Rogue Warriors (-225) vs. Estar (+160)
RW good or TES dumb? Maybe a bit of both, unlike US politics, can sometimes be true if there is a middle ground here. RW will be starting Michi tonight in a surprise announcement. Kelin was sent down to the LDL as the team continues to wait for Betty to return from the offseason.
Does that news affect the slate more than the team is the question. eStar will see increased ownership; who wouldn't like a cheap underdog against a backup ADC. Michi has not been great in the LDL holding a 35% win rate last split, and he's off to an 0-2 start this split. The problem with this line of thinking is that RW goes as Haro goes in the post Zwuji era. Beishang gave him fits in the opener, but he could contend with Karsa, helping RW get the win over TES. Haro will have the edge over H4cker, and I think we see this play out like the BLG eStar match.
eStar has not had good early games, and I think that's where we see RW win this match. Jungle carries, and 1 item spike comps have been able to get large leads. RW should be able to get up on Estar playing through Haro's jungle pressure. RW is not a great objective team, though, and eStar will likely claim a game when RW cannot closeout. I think many people jump on the eStar value here with the RW news, but I'll stick with the jungle gap theory. It wouldn't be the LPL without the underdog caveat, and if eStar wins, they could break the slate fighting back into these games from behind ala JDG yesterday.
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG - Leads the team in kill share, unusual for a jungler, but exactly what I'm looking for in a dfs play.
- Forge - MID - with a suspect bot lane, Forge will have to get his carry pants on and back up Haro for RW to win. Hopefully, eStar forgets to ban Akali.
- Quiqui - SUP - played very well in the revenge matchup with TES. He should be out on the map making plays again today.
Top RW Plays:
- ShiauC - SUP - Leads the team in kill participation.
- Rat - ADC - Leads the team in kill share, and if this plays out the way I think for eStar to win, he'll have to go BIG late.
- H4cker - JNG - would love to see him on a tanky champ to add safety and keep Haro from soloing him out.
6:00 AM: TES (-305) vs. Rare Atom (+215)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; another TES matchup to flip a coin on. TES have history on their side in every way possible. They just beat Rare Atom (under their old Vici Gaming brand) 3-1 at the Demacia Cup. TES swept VG in 2020, and in addition to that, Knight has owned the matchup versus Fofo in the past. Let's try to figure this mess out.
Rare Atom is the rebrand of Vici Gaming, and they kept nearly the entire roster, only replacing Forge with Fofo in the mid lane. They are a bit of a coin flippy team, thanks to the hit or miss nature of Iboy. Until Top Esports can find a different way to play the game besides regularly skill checking their opponents into submission, they remain tough to recommend. Even in their victory over RA at Demacia, TES surrendered enough kills to VG that barely outscored them. That means this is wide open from a dfs perspective; TES outscored RW in a 1-2 loss a few days ago. Points will be available in this series.
I do like TES to win; they are the more skilled team. We won't worry about map movements, macro play, objective or vision control at all. Iboy will opt into any fight that TES wants to start making the skill check nature of Top more relevant. Fofo is similar to Iboy in that his pride won't let him back down to Knight; we saw that in their Zoey face off in game one at Demacia. If Rare Atom were a disciplined, smart macro team, that window was last year with Kkoma as the coach. Both sides are firmly in play, and the steep discount on the RA side makes them a desirable DFS option.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC- Leads the team in both KP% and KS% in 2021
- Knight - MID - More steady than his bot lane friend.
- Karsa - JNG - Needs to control himself and the team more as the veteran voice. He should be better at reigning in the aggression.
- Zhou - SUP - Along for the Jackeylove roller coaster ride, plus you can't touch 369 right now.
Top RA plays:
- Iboy - ADC - Leads the team in kill share, and Jackey loves to fly in without thinking.
- Aix - JNG - led the team in kill participation last split, and counterganking Karsa will be key to a Rare Atom win
- Cube - TOP - 369 has not gotten off to a great start to the season, and this is a matchup and price play.
Summary
- TLDR : Gen G 2-0, DWG 2-0, RW 2-1, and TES 2-1. These LPL matchups are another early-season dumpster fire. Both favorites are action-packed teams that force the action but often go too far. The LCK side is nearly locked.
- Both LPL matchups are again wide open, and I don't know when I'll stop falling for the Top Esports trap. The question of the night for me is Haro>H4cker if he can jungle gap hard enough, I see a lot of sad eStar owners in the future.
- The biggest ownership trend I see tonight will likely be people going in on eStar to open up access to TES and DWG captains. Likely, DWG is the most owned tonight as they are fantasy darlings, and TES has let us down a few times already.
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