RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Let's find some angles to approach tomorrow's big slate! As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, July 3rd, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: T1 (-172) vs. AF (+140)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. Right off the bat, I am interested in fading this game, or only grabbing exposure for secondary stacks and one-offs, as I think this one goes three games. Both teams have not shown me enough this split for me to predict a sweep here in either direction. AF is a strong early game team that struggles to push their advantage into victories in the mid to late stages of the game. T1 on the other hand are trying to find their footing in this early-game focused meta, but have clawed back in wins due to their strong later game decision making. Dread and Kiin have been off to a really good start, but I give an ever so slight edge to Cuzz and Canna, so the pivotal matchup should be which bot lane can find a significant 2v2 lead. Mid-lane seems like the biggest lane mismatch in this one, with Faker playing better recently though, in a favorable matchup vs Fly. NO CAPTAINS for me from this one, as I am really leaning towards a full fade or Faker/Keria/Teddy one-off in that order. T1 win 2-1.
Top T1 plays: (FADE, Faker, Keria, Teddy)
6:00 AM: LSB (-343) vs. DRX (+267)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. LSB is building some momentum now, up to fourth in the LCK standings after jumping up two spots after beating AF yesterday. LSB have shown improvements from last split, with 2021 rookie Croco and 2020 rookie Prince really stepping up. Effort is in talks for best support in the league at the moment, while Fate and Summit are definitely strong solo lanes. This team is clicking on all cylinders. The talent on this roster can truly compete with any LCK team, and I truly wouldn’t be mad if this team made it to worlds (haha I may be getting ahead of myself.) DRX on the other hand is the worst team in the LCK at this point. They are a squad that was meant to play in last spring’s meta, and clearly not in this summer’s more aggressive, skirmishing, early game meta. This match is the most straightforward on the slate for me. Give me LSB to keep the momentum rolling, making them my favorite secondary stack(and a good contrarian primary stack) to help you fit in the FPX and WE members if you go that route. LSB 2-0 sweep and hopefully play with their food a bit. I prefer secondary stacks of Effort/Croco or Croco/Summit, but definitely mix up the exposure here and get some four-man stacks in.
Top LSB plays, ALL by preference: (Effort, Croco, Fate, Prince, Summit)
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: WE (-246) vs. OMG (+197)
First LPL matchup tomorrow, and I'm not shying away from this one for DFS purposes. We should get blood early and often. First off, Shanks is back in the mid lane for WE and was an instant upgrade over Mole’s terrible start on his new team. Second, OMG is my favorite dog on the slate, as they have shown more cohesion and decisiveness than team WE at some points this split. Creme and Able have stepped in to support the central roster piece in Aki, and New and Cold's playstyles let those former three do most of the hard carry work. WE is the better team and has better players, but I think WE will come in over-owned for a five-game slate, making OMG a great GPP play and priority for me in my lineups. OMG made roster improvements from last split, and I feel they will go fairly overlooked on this slate. In a bloody projected matchup like this, even a 2-1 victory could lead to some insane scoring. WE aren’t afraid to fight, and OMG is slightly less reserved but has the ability to fight back in this meta. OMG can carry from any lane, which is key when you are facing a squad that also can do the same. OMG secondary stacks from this game paired with a four-man LSB stack are a great way to get contrarian on this slate. It’s an uphill battle, but I’ll take OMG at low ownership to win 2-1 in a bloody massacre of a series. I will have CAPTAIN exposure from both sides in potentially the highest-scoring games of the day.
Top OMG plays: ALL by preference, (Able, Creme, Aki, Cold, New)
Top WE plays: (Breathe, Shanks, Beishang, Elk)
5:00 AM: RA (+120) vs. LNG (-146)
Another straightforward matchup for me. I am over the field on LNG and way under on RA. LNG is the top team in the LPL right now, topping many titans along the way. RA took down TES sure but in a sloppy fashion. LNG has had the cleaner wins and tougher competition, with advantages in every single lane in my eyes. My concern is how RA plays a slower pace and dies less than your average bloodthirsty LPL team. These could very well be two 15 kill wins for LNG, and that most likely will not get you there for a takedown, so I’ll be playing a TEAM one off from this game, or secondary stacks from this one. LNG win 2-0 in a much more macro-focused series, with very limited four-man stacks and CAPTAINS for me.
Top LNG plays: (TEAM, Light, Lwandy, Tarzan)
7:00 AM: IG (+386) vs. FPX (-523)
The last matchup of the day is another straightforward matchup. FPX is the priciest on DK coming into this one, and that scares me if we see a similar IG as their last loss vs LGD. IG isn’t as bloody this split as they are with TheShy usually in the lineup. I think FPX win this one 2-0 but in not extremely bloody fashion. They can get you there for secondary stacks, but I think FPX dominates every single lane and that will result in IG not contesting as many objectives/choosing fights until later in the game when they can flip the game on its head. FPX is off to a hot start, with their only real struggles stemming from the bot lane, which is arguably IG’s biggest weakness at the moment, so I don’t see FPX struggling too much. I doubt they overlook IG as an opponent either, they come out and get this one done in a swift fashion. I DO prefer CAPTAINS from this series as compared to the LNG vs RA series. FPX wins 2-0 and get bloody in one game, so I slightly lean to FPX stacks over OMG stacks.
Top FPX plays, ALL by preference: (Lwx, Doinb, Crisp, Tian, Nuguri)
Summary
- TLDR: Definitely a multiple-entry slate, but my favorite primary stacks/picks in order: LSB 2-0, FPX 2-0, OMG 2-1, LNG 2-0, WE(2-1 if they win)
- Fade the first LCK match, but find leverage with a primary stack from the second match, featuring the red hot LSB in a very favorable matchup. Four of the five favorites win tomorrow.
- The slate breaker will be an upset from the LPL. I think OMG is the best dog on the whole slate, while I will be getting to zero IG and maybe one or two RA secondary stacks(probably not though.) Sprinkle in some AF if you're feeling spicy, as they are one of the best early game teams in the LCK and the second-best underdog on this slate for me. Good luck tomorrow summoners!
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