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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Tomorrow's slate should be a fun one, as teams are scraping for every single win to try and boost their chances at securing a spot in the playoffs. We have a few heavy favorites and a couple of closer matches. I definitely have a couple of favorite spots on this slate in terms of kill AND sweep upside for my primary stacks, and we have to find value somewhere as well. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, July 31st, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: T1 (-384) vs. BRO (+292)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. The last time these two met, T1 made quick work of BRO with the old T1 roster in, so this time around with the new roster, I expect higher-paced games than the first meeting. T1 is tied with AF in the standings, but a loss here would still have T1 in the playoffs. BRO is holding on to a very small chance of making it into the playoffs, and I saw a tweet today that said the top six seeds currently all have above a 90% chance to make playoffs. Basically barring some miracle runs by HLE and BRO, the top six should be set. BRO is for the most part playing spoiler tomorrow.
I like BRO to win this matchup 2-1 as they have recently shown enough signs of life that I can see them taking AT LEAST a game here. None of the underdogs on this slate intrigue me as much as BRO. The top side of the map with Umti and Hoya has been the driving catalyst in BRO wins, and I see BRO coming out with early game focused drafts for the matches tomorrow, hopefully ending the game fast enough to where T1 can't outscale (which is what happened in game 2 of the first meeting, BRO grabbed an early lead with an early composition and couldn't close out T1 in the later dragon fights.) This is easily my favorite underdog of the day, as the odds are similar to the other LCK matchup, but I think it should be closer. BRO wins 2-1 and is my favorite value stack on the board tomorrow.
Top BRO plays: Umti, Hoya, Hena, Lava(sub risk, Yaharong could step in if BRO loses)
6:00 AM: DRX (+291) vs. AF (-381)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. The last time these two met, AF cleanly swept DRX, and I don't expect a different outcome this time around. DRX players were shown on camera literally crying after their loss last week vs HLE. Tough to watch, but it's how their split has been going. AF is riding the hot momentum train after taking down GEN G and DK their last two matches, so look for them to come out and flex their muscles tomorrow's an inferior opponent.
I think AF ownership will rise and they had massive ceiling performances last time out vs DK, but I don't think it will rise above RNG and TES. So AF could still be a lower owned primary stack, and if that's the case, I don't mind going right back to them after their huge performances. DRX is mentally checked out of this split, which could spell danger for AF DFS ceiling games tomorrow, as they could very well just turbostomp DRX in 24 minutes while only dropping 13 kills. I like AF more as a secondary stack tomorrow, focusing on the top side of the map this time around, but I will mix in some full stacks. AF win 2-0 and CAPTAINS I don't mind getting to are Leo, Fly, and Dread.
Top AF plays, ALL in order: Dread, Kiin, Leo, Fly, Lehends
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: RNG (-179) vs. RA (+147)
It's an interesting match for the first LPL series, and also the closest projected match of the day. I'll start by saying RNG (Cryin IN, Yuekai OUT) are on a seven-game win streak and won't overlook RA tomorrow, but RA can very well match RNG in the solo lanes. However, in the jungle and bot lane, I give a large advantage to RNG this split. RA as a GPP stack is intriguing, as the ownership will be sub 10%, but the kill upside isn't there for me. This whole series doesn't seem too DFS appealing, as this should be a more macro and objective focused series. I don't see either team eclipsing 17 kills in a win tomorrow. Give me RNG to come out on top 2-1, as RA will have something planned for FoFo and Cube to carry a game and give either one of them a strong counterpick to get ahead, most likely FoFo.
I like FADING this match as well, as the upside is higher for other stacks on the board today in my opinion. RNG is rolling and can very well sweep here, but I'm expecting a close match just like the odds suggest. Again, I'm hesitant to predict an RA game victory here, but cutting down slates by fading certain matches with decent ownership coming in is how I like to play DFS. This one may come back and bite me in the rear, but RNG 2-1 and is my TOP FADE of the day. Dog or pass pretty much for DFS purposes, so a prayer RA lineup does seem in order tomorrow.
Top RNG plays: FADE, Gala, Wei
5:00 AM: TES (-1000) vs. UP (+649)
For our second LPL matchup of the day, we've got another -1000 LPL favorite, as EDG last time outscored decent enough vs V5 as heavy favorites in the most recent -1000 LPL matchup. TES has 369 and Zhuo back in the lineup and is coming off a nice 2-1 victory over LNG, looking to keep grabbing wins on their climb up the standings. This one is straight to the point, as TES will sweep here 2-0, and should score better than RNG, T1, and AF in sweeps in my opinion.
TES are back to their aggressive ways with 369 back in, looking to find advantages in their strong lane phases, and constantly looking to push their lane leads through picks and moving around the map. UP are heavy underdogs here and rely on the carry performances of Smlz and ShiauC to find a path to victory, but I don't see them coming anywhere close tomorrow. I will eat the chalk here and hope the -1000 curse doesn't strike again, hoping for a bloody 2-0 TES sweep and not some flat TES coming out in game one and then reverse sweeping. TES 2-0 stomp tomorrow, CAPTAINS I like getting to are Jackeylove, Knight, and even 369 for value.
Top TES plays, ALL in order: Jackeylove, Knight, Zhuo, Karsa, 369
7:00 AM: FPX (-233) vs. JDG (+187)
The last match of the day, and boy have I got some opinions on this one. FPX is my favorite full stack of the slate tomorrow. Bloodthirsty FPX shows up tomorrow to feed on the hopeless JDG squad that has dropped four series straight and seems to have no clue how they want to draft and play in this meta. The meta is lining up perfectly for FPX in my opinion, making for a strong case of an LPL finals rematch vs RNG like the last split. FPX holds the advantage in every single lane tomorrow. Recently it doesn't seem to matter if JDG grabs an early lead, as they are struggling to push their advantages across the map, something that FPX excels at, at the very least is more proactive than JDG at doing. I love the top side of the FPX map to smash tomorrow, starting with Tian and DoinB at CAPTAIN. Lwx is a nice CAPTAIN pivot off of DoinB, who is having a career split, and should be lower owned than the other ADC captains tomorrow, JKL and Gala, maybe even Leo. FPX smash 2-0 tomorrow and are my top stack and priority.
Top FPX plays, ALL in order: Tian, DoinB, Lwx, Crisp, Nuguri
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: FPX 2-0, TES 2-0, AF 2-0, BRO 2-1, RNG 2-1. I doubt FPX is the highest-owned favorite stack tomorrow, so I want to start by loading up there.
- I think the LPL favorites will score better than AF in a sweep, so I will be prioritizing them for my full stacks, mixing in AF and BRO for my secondary stacks.
- I think BRO is the best dog and value on the whole slate, followed by RA having sneaky slate-breaking value upside, even in three games, so I will toss in a prayer lineup or two. Won't have any JDG, T1, or RNG tomorrow as I usually build around 10 lineups. Good luck tomorrow!
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