RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Tomorrow's slate should be a fun one, as teams are scraping for every single win to try and boost their chances at securing a spot in the playoffs. We have a few large favorites in RNG, HLE, and DK in that order, with TES vs LNG being the closest projected match. Let's see if I can talk myself into any underdogs tomorrow. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Thursday, July 29th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: DK (-377) vs. AF (+290)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. The last time these two met, DK swept AF in convincing fashion as the top side of the map dominated. This match is the most pivotal on the slate in terms of playoff seeding, as AF has a two-game lead above HLE for the last playoff spot, and DK needs a win (and an LSB loss to NS on Friday,) in order to hold a one-game lead for third place. Basically, DK needs this win more than AF, who is coming off a victory vs GEN. DK just swept DRX a few days ago. DK are cheap enough on DraftKings to full-stack, so they should draw some ownership here in a must-win matchup for any chance at the first seed.
Straight up I think this one goes three games. AF looked decisive and aware of their decisions in their series vs GEN, and will definitely look to keep the momentum rolling vs a DK squad that seems to be trending back up to the top, although they did recently lose to T1 and NS in three-game fashion. AF is a decent GPP stack to pair with the expensive favorites, as they have some upside in this matchup for a secondary stack, definitely higher upside than their matches vs GEN last week in my opinion. DK will pull the trigger more often than GEN, and more fights will occur because of it. But looking at the whole slate, this may be my favorite fade as I still prefer the other three matches for DFS purposes. I think DK wins this one 2-1 and would keep my plays from this one to one-offs and small stacks from both sides. Wouldn't be surprised if AF wins this series, so they are good value plays here if you absolutely need it to jam the other favorites.
Top DK plays: FADE, Ghost, Showmaker
Top AF plays: FADE, Dread, Kiin
6:00 AM: HLE (-443) vs. DRX (+334)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. Last time these two met, HLE slapped around the old DRX roster in two quick games. This time around, HLE needs a win and an AF loss to close the gap for a playoff spot to one game. Every single win matters as well, as they are exactly tied with KT right now, so a sweep is what HLE is going for. HLE looks improved with Willer now in at jungle, but it could be a honeymoon phase thing. Tomorrow, however, they face off against the bottom feeders of the league in DRX. DRX to be honest is better with this lineup iteration than last split, but I'm not sure how much that will help them tomorrow. I
HLE is coming out motivated to chase that last playoff spot, while DRX will simply look to play spoiler. DRX is worth a look in deep GPP formats because of their somewhat scrappy style that can match HLE, as Pyosik and Kingen aren't necessarily miles behind the likes of Willer and Morgan, but Chovy and Deft hold the advantages in the mid and bot lane respectively. I may be overthinking this one, but I think DRX takes a game here. They have nothing to play for and may try a surprise draft pick to throw HLE off guard. Most likely DRX makes one of the games close and ends up losing it and then getting swept. But honestly, anytime HLE is even remotely chalky I will look to the other side for leverage considering how aggressive and skirmish-heavy HLE matches usually are.
I think HLE wins 2-1 and are still likely to score well enough to be a secondary stack, avoiding the team slot. CAPTAINS from this one I don't like much, except for a Chovy or Deft one-off. Keep it to small stacks in this one, and keep it light with rostering LCK players tomorrow in general.
Top HLE plays: Chovy, Deft, Willer
Top DRX plays: Pyosik, Kingen
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TT (+701) vs. RNG (-1071)
It's a straightforward match for the first LPL series, hopefully. I'll start by saying RNG(Cryin out, Yuekai in) are the largest favorites on the slate and the most expensive on DK. That's ok with me and just means you have to get creative with how you fit them in your lineups, by either pairing with underdogs or going with a value captain. RNG However, the curse of the -1000 favorites in the LPL continues, as Suning was the last team to fall by dropping a game to V5 two slates ago. It's another question of does RNG win too fast and dominant to pay off their price tags? Do they drop a game? I don't think so to both those questions, as RNG is on a six-game win streak and won't let up here.
Yuekai was on Leblanc in his sole game vs V5 a couple of slates ago, which is a good sign for DFS scoring potential. But for CAPTAIN favorites from this one, it's Xiaohu or Ming tomorrow, as they are the only possible ways to fit in TES and an LCK underdog one-off somewhere in the lineup, which is fine with me. RNG wins 2-0 tomorrow and TT brings the fights to them, making RNG a good but EXPENSIVE choice for full stacks tomorrow. Hopefully, ownership flocks to DK for full stacks, and RNG comes in at suppressed ownership due to inflated prices.
Top RNG plays, ALL in order: Xiaohu, Wei, Yuekai, Gala, Ming
7:00 AM: TES (-234) vs. LNG (+188)
The last matchup of the day has a big meaning for TES if they want to stay afloat and tied with RNG in the standings (both 7-5 W/L records) while LNG is comfortably sitting top four in the league with a chance to take sole possession of first place with a win here. TES dropped the ball heavy vs IG, so this is a must-win AND get-right spot for them, with 369 and Zhuo subbing back in as well. LNG doesn't need this win nearly as much as TES.
TES is my favorite primary stack tomorrow. Not that Qingtian was bad in his time on the rift, but 369's carry and DFS potential are definitely higher than Qingtian's. TES is slightly cheaper than RNG, and the only way to fit them is with Zhuo captain and an LCK favorite one-off. So to afford 369, JKL, and Knight captain tomorrow, you'll need some cheap LCK pieces probably. LNG is overperforming at this point in time, while TES is looking to peak at just the right time in the season. Not that LNG can't win this matchup, but 369 back in the lineup with Zhuo means a lot in my eyes. Ale has had a great split as well, so even if 369 plays the weak side, I don't expect Light and Lwandy to dominate JKL and Zhuo, the duo that dismantled EDG's bot lane. Mid-lane also holds a strong advantage for TES, as Knight is having a career split while Icon is underwhelming for DFS purposes. Give me all the TES to win and sweep here 2-0 at suppressed ownership due to recency bias. CAPTAINS I like from TES are everyone.
Top TES plays, ALL in order: 369, Zhuo, Jackeylove, Karsa, Knight
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: TES 2-0, RNG 2-0, HLE 2-1, DK 2-1. Give me all the LPL full stacks tomorrow with LCK underdog value in close matchups. DK is underpriced and could very well sweep AF, but the ownership they might draw tomorrow concerns me.
- I think TES bounces back and RNG goes overlooked because of their prices. TT isn't afraid to skirmish.
- I think AF is the best dog and value on the whole slate, followed by DRX and LNG having sneaky slate breaking upside even in three games so I will toss in a prayer lineup or two. Good luck tomorrow!
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