RADIO
Hello to all of my regular League DFSers as well as to all of my stragglers looking to get some action during the breaks of other sports! DraftKings has been nice and given us some good GPPs this week for League and tonight is the first of the 4 game slates with a 60k prizepool!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, July 20th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups
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4:15 AM: DRX(-518) vs. BRO (+378)
Today's GPP is an interesting one where we have 4 favorites that are 75% to win or more. While for the single entry and small field player this doesn't change a whole lot, the large field GPP player has to now take a chance on a large underdog. No underdog feels good today but we've seen crazier happen, so don't be afraid to get weird with it! First game of the night brings us Fredit Brion vs favorite DRX. DRX runs a relatively consistent consistent lineup with no subs but there is a rumor running around that Pyosik might start to sit games starting soon. Luckily this is the first game of the night so we are going to get the starters prior to lock. For Brion, the lineup is stagnant except for their top lane, if you don't plan on staying up until about 3AM EST then avoid using Sw0rd or Morgan. Brion is one of my favorite underdogs to bet over the last year or so and they have pulled through many times. I think that they are in a decent enough spot to consider using them in your GPP builds as DRX is probably not as good at people think. Neither of these teams is necessarily a "high pace" team but on a 4game slate, no team is ever dead to being the highest scoring. I like avoiding this spot in cash games and looking to use BRO in GPPs.
Top DRX plays: Deft, Zeka
Top BRO plays: Hena, Lava
7:15 AM: DWG (-883) vs. NS (+583)
Starting 3 hours later is our 2nd LCK game of the night. NS has had an absolutely abysmal beginning to the split and have a very tough matchup tonight in Damwon. Damwon has been on point this split and are one of the big three in this league.I really would like to back NS here as having a better chance than odds are telling us, but it's hard to feel confident about a team that has played as poorly as they have. I feel like Damwon has found a way to either be optimal as a 4 stack or the lowest scoring winning team of the night on every slate as far as I can remember. I'm not sure how true that is, but that's how it feels. I think i'm likely to hold my nose and play NS sparingly in my GPP build but mostly looking to use Damwon in some capacity in cash games. While every favorite is heavily favored today, they still feel like they have the highest floor here.
Top DWG Plays: ShowMaker, Canyon
Top NS Plays: Ghost, Bdd
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LPL Matches
5:15 AM: TES (-860) vs. RA (+571)
RA have been my weak spot for a long time. I am probably the biggest fan of this team for the sole reason that Strive is just such a good DFS spot. The guy just goes nuclear in all of their wins. Stats wise he plays at a high level and commands a high killshare and high kill participation number. If iBoy was a little better, I think we could see this team really go for a run. That being said, TES is a tough challenge. Knight and JackeyLove are dominant in their lanes and put up great DFS numbers in their own right. This game here is likely to be the best spot to play in GPPs whether you are taking TES or RA. Likely to be the highest game total game of the night, it makes for a good stack to play. RA have been relatively disappointing this split and I think that the market disrespects them a little bit more than they should for that reason. Top Esports is a very solid team but given their style of play I really find it hard to lay this heavy a number on them as a favorite. They do get a bit aggressive at times and if Rare Atom can have the discipline to wait for their mistakes, maybe they can make a game out of it. I like RA and TES both in GPPs and think that TES is probably the other spot in cash lineups alongside Damwon.
Top TES Plays: Knight, JackeyLove
Top RA Plays: Strive, Leyan
7:15 AM: RNG (-396) vs. BLG (+300)
One of the commonly clowned upon phrases in a few of the esports DFS circles is "chalk dog." While no dogs today should carry a ton of ownership, BLG is a team that was much better during spring and has been relatively disappointing comparatively this summer. If this matchup happened 4 months ago the odds may be much closer to even. In addition, they are the most likely underdog to win and are cheap enough to fit in stacks with other large favorites. For these reasons I think we see BLG at a much higher ownership clip than the rest of the underdogs. Even with the subs in can/Rise I still feel this way. In cash I would consider RNG depending on what the difference in lineup/projection is between DWG and RNG. In GPPs I think I'm going to stay away from Bilibili as I think they are likely the most highly owned underdog and I'd rather try and pressure other spots.
Top RNG Plays: Xiaohu, Ming
Top BLG Plays: FoFo, Rise
Summary
- TLDR: There are a ton of huge favorites on this slate and as a result you are almost forced to play a big underdog in GPPs. BLG is likely going to be the highest owned underdog and as a result I think maybe avoiding that spot may be a good idea. The field generally gravitates towards a few combinations and I think BLG ends up in at least one of the common combos. I really like taking RA and BRO stacks in GPPs and will look to do it often. No matter what you do, don't try and play a 4-3 double favorite lineup tonight. If it fits it is going to be duplicated. 33% of the prizepool is going to first place so duplication is your biggest enemy.
- GPP Stacks: RA, BRO, TES, RNG
- Cash Stacks: RNG, TES, DWG
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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