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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Tomorrow's slate features a few close matches that could flip the slate on its head, these games being HLE vs GEN, FPX vs TES, and T1 vs DK. The other two matches are heavy favorites that most likely come out with a sweep, and feature DEEP GPP underdog stacks in RW and UP. Let's dig and find some angles to approach tomorrow's slate. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, July 17th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: HLE (+184) vs. GEN (-229)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. In the first half of the split, GEN swept HLE in easy fashion, as HLE looked like a dumpster fire coming out of the gates. Recently HLE has definitely picked up their play on the new patch and even near the end of the last patch. GEN is first in the LCK standings but has played a few series that could've gone either way. NS defeated DK yesterday in three great games, so GEN has to win this match if they want to retain first place. Any LCK matches with HLE involved I like having exposure to since they play at a higher pace than many LCK teams and some of the slower LPL teams. Both teams have had at least five days to prepare for each other in this match.
HLE is coming off a 2-0 loss to DK, while GEN last played and swept DRX. GEN will be motivated to keep the first place here, but historically Chovy has a strong record vs Bdd and GEN G (I heard this on a recent LCK cast but I can't remember exact stats.) I am very intrigued by a Chovy one-off play for savings, as I think this match goes three games regardless of who wins. This means I will probably limit my exposure to this game as secondary stacks/one-offs, and save my primary stacks for the possible sweeps elsewhere. I think HLE come out motivated as well to surpass KT Rolster in the standings and hopefully fall right behind LSB for the sixth playoff spot. GEN has a strong early game and a weak mid to late game, which mirrors HLE's team stats. Whoever gets ahead early most likely won't be able to cleanly snowball, so I am expecting a solid amount of kills for the winners of the match here.
I am taking HLE to win this series 2-1 and are possibly my favorite value stack. Chovy should find an advantage in draft and in-game vs Bdd, and will need a slate-breaking performance along with Deft to take down GEN I think. This is a dog or pass series for me, with most secondary stack exposure as well, to help fit the favorites that could sweep. CAPTAINS from HLE are definitely in play, preferably Chovy over Deft. Arthur's numbers are pretty solid and are a good pivot off of Deft for secondary stacks. I won't have much exposure to Vsta and DuDu as they lead the team in deaths and DTH%.
Top HLE plays: Chovy, Deft, Arthur
6:00 AM: DK (-180) vs. T1 (+147)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. T1 defeated KT in the 'telecom wars' 2-0 yesterday, while DK fell to the red hot NS in three games. Canyon and Khan didn't have their best series performances, while T1 looked unfazed by the fact that their head coach was released the day before the match. DK won this matchup 2-1 in the first half of the split. DK leads the league in CKPM, while T1 sits in the lower half, but I give them a slight boost in pace with this new roster in place.
T1 may draw some ownership here but I'm not sure if this game draws much ownership at all, and I think that's for good reason. I also believe this series goes three games and is slower-paced than the HLE vs GEN series, making it my favorite fade of the day. Canyon and Khan will minimize the mistakes this series vs the aggressive pair of Oner and Canna, and draft split push compositions, not allowing T1 to group and team fight as they want to do. DK win this series 2-1. No CAPTAINS from this game, and maybe DK one-offs but probably not.
Top DK plays: FADE, Khan, Canyon
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: WE (-486) vs. UP (+362)
It’s pretty straightforward for the first LPL matchup tomorrow. WE seemed to recover after their 2-0 loss to JDG by defeating LNG 2-1 last time out, while UP threw leads in both games vs OMG in their last series. I think WE should be slightly greater favorites here and are my favorite primary stack of the day. Elk will be the chalkiest member of WE so I am looking to differentiate by loading up on the top side of the map here of WE. UP simply is outmatched in every role, based on how these teams have been playing recently. UP's only hope is for Smlz and Shiauc to carry for two games, but Elk and Missing have gotten better as the split has gone on. Give me a WE 2-0 bloody sweep here as they look to build their morale and momentum for a playoff push vs a bottom-tier team. I love CAPTAINS from this game, mainly Beishang and Breathe to fit the more expensive stacks, with some Shanks + Chovy and HLE builds in there as well.
Top WE plays, ALL in order: Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing
5:00 AM: RA (-1231) vs. RW (+783)
These matches with -1000 and greater favorites in the LPL are the stuff of nightmares to write about. Will the favorites crush in dominating fashion and be a necessary piece of your lineup? Or will they play vanilla style and just simply get out with a win (RNG game one win vs V5 lol?) Will the favorites come out flat vs an inferior team and fall behind early but come back late resulting in strong DFS scores? Will they just flat out lose(RIP Invictus Gaming.) Who knows in this league, #ThisIsLPL.
This is my least favorite game of the three LPL series to target for DFS purposes, but the most interesting from a leverage standpoint. Both teams play at a slower pace than the other two LPL series. Both teams focus more on macro play/team fighting and less skirmishing/early game brawls than your average LPL team. However, both teams have also shifted from their comfort before and drafted the latter style, in hopes of surprising the opponent, which is what RW could try tomorrow. I actually think RA is going to come in under-owned due to their inflated prices, making them an interesting primary stack for GPPs. I don't presume many will load up four RA members even though their chance of a sweep is the greatest of the three LPL matches. RA shouldn't have trouble taking down RW in two games, it's a matter of how bloody these games get. RA wins 2-0 and is a good GPP stack in my opinion, as people will gravitate to the other LPL matches, but I still don't mind a FADE here as RA should win easily enough to not need multiple team fights to end the game. CAPTAINS in play from this one are expensive but in play.
Top RA plays, ALL in order: iBoy, Leyan, FADE, FoFo, Cube, Hang
7:00 AM: FPX (+108) vs. TES (-132)
The last matchup of the day is a key matchup for both sides looking to climb further up the standings, as FPX sits at second place while TES has some work to do sitting at ninth place. I want to see this one go three games and stay close, but with the way TES has been playing, I wouldn't be surprised to see TES sweep here. However, FPX is a solid GPP stack, but will probably be higher owned than HLE, which I prefer getting to for underdog value.
FPX side lanes have been struggling at times this split, and the TES bot lane(biggest question mark for me to start the split) even outperformed and outdueled Viper and Meiko when they swept EDG a couple of series ago. In the past week FPX has benched Nuguri, brought him back into the starting lineup, then lost Crisp to a spine-related injury, and now have to face the hottest team in the league at the moment. FPX did just beat RA in three games with the changes, so perhaps they are just as ready as ever. It's hard to completely fade this game too, even if it goes three games, as these two teams are some of the top leaders in the world in CKPM, both sitting above a 0.90 CKPM.
I see some value here on TES, as I think they win this matchup most of the time, simply through lane dominance. The side lane struggles for FPX should continue here, as Qingtian is really settling into his role while JKL and Yuyanjia look like they haven't missed a beat since Zhuo subbed out. Give me TES to keep rolling here, in a bloody 2-0 win. CAPTAINS from this game are definitely in play from both sides even, in case FPX does pull off the upset.
Top TES Plays, ALL in order: Jackeylove, Yuyanjia, Qingtian, Knight, Karsa
Top FPX Plays: DoinB, Nuguri, Tian, Lwx
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: WE 2-0, TES 2-0, HLE 2-1, RA 2-0, DK 2-1. WE are due for a sweep here and have a really favorable matchup, but TES could be the leverage play since they are in the closest projected matchup. Feels weird to say that because people LOVE rostering TES.
- Fading both LCK matches tomorrow could pay off, as all three LPL matches could be potential barn burners.
- I think HLE is the best dog and value on the whole slate, so I will have tons of them mixed in with the LPL favorites. I would sprinkle in a little FPX as well. Good luck tomorrow!
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