RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. We are halfway through the LPL and just about there for the LCK. Sorry for not writing an article yesterday, it was a chaotic day for me, as well as the LoL scene (LCS, I am not playing YOU today and RIP, LNG.) But let's dig and find some angles to approach tomorrow's slate. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, July 11th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: GEN (-804) vs. DRX (+555)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. This one is pretty straightforward, as GEN is looking to bounce back after dropping four straight games to T1 and DWG. It seems they aren't the top titan in the LCK for long, as DWG are coming alive on this new patch, as well as T1 showcasing their secret weapon Gumayusi once again. DRX grabbed their first victory vs BRO, with new subs Taeyoon (ADC) and Jun(SUP) debuting this split.
This should be a GEN sweep after they've faced the other top two teams in the LCK. DRX is coming off a victory but I highly doubt that translates into a win here vs a GEN squad that has the better players in every role. It's a matter of how bloody this one will end up, and I don't like the odds of GEN coming out here to massacre DRX. I think GEN comes out ready to secure the victory by not playing anything too hard to execute, as they need every win they can get to place higher than T1 and DWG this split. I am primarily interested in the GEN team slot here, and secondary stacks. I definitely want primary stack exposure to GEN as they are cheaper than other favorites on DraftKings, but in small amounts. DRX isn't a team that wants to get in your face and scrap constantly, Stacking GEN could be the contrarian pivot you need to takedown, especially at these price points. Give me GEN 2-0 in a clean, controlled sweep. Will have some CAPTAIN plays from this game, mainly Ruler or Bdd.
Top GEN plays, ALL in order: GEN TEAM, Ruler, Clid, Bdd, Rascal, Kellin
6:00 AM: T1 (-207) vs. NS (+167)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. The last time these two met, NS swept T1 in a 36 minute game and a 70 minute(!!) game two. This T1 iteration with Gumayusi is slightly bloodier than with Teddy, but NS still won't be looking to fight on a regular basis. I think this series won't provide much DFS action. Both teams will be playing around their vision advantage for picks, which lead to map pressure/control.
I think this is my favorite FADE of the day, but I will get to a couple of T1 full stacks to be contrarian, in hopes that T1 wants some bloody revenge after getting swept last time out, and have more skirmishing focused roster with Gumayusi in the mix. However I think NS is playing well enough to steal a game, so T1 wins 2-1.
Top T1 plays: FADE, Canna, Gumayusi
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: BLG (-586) vs. RW (+426)
It’s pretty straightforward for the fiirst LPL matchup tomorrow. BLG is rolling after taking down FPX in three games, winning three of their past four series. It's looking like WeiWei, BiuBiu, and Ppgod are showing that old V5 synergy once again, and it's translating into wins for the BLG side. They have another favorable, bloody matchup tomorrow vs RW, who just secured a victory over IG, and have won two of their past three series. However, BLG is contending for a playoff spot, and can't afford to drop series vs teams below them.
RW has shown some life but it was against struggling competition. BLG is heating up and will look to control the map vs RW, as they should find advantages in every lane. BLG has the stronger laners and team play, so look to get them in primary stacks with WeiWei or BiuBiu at CAPTAIN to get different and fit the other favorites. BLG will be a priority for me tomorrow, look to fit them with favorites and underdogs. BLG win 2-0.
Top BLG plays, ALL by preference: BiuBiu, Zeka, WeiWei, Aiming, Ppgod
5:00 AM: TES (-218) vs. SN (+176)
BANGER ALERT! A 2020 Worlds Semifinals rematch! TES is on a four-series win streak, while SN has won their past two. Right off the bat, I like this match more than the WE vs JDG matchup, for DFS purposes. I think SN knows they have a rough time ahead if they can't pull out a victory on the blue side, which is their best side to play on. They will have to decisively snowball if they want a chance at winning in three games. TES is an exceptional red side team, so SN will have to constantly push their lead if they find themselves ahead in the early game. I see it as a slight mismatch that favors TES here. This is not only due to the nature of these teams on each side, but the Mid/Jungle for TES has a good advantage over SN.
Going with a TES win 2-0 here, as I think SN will come in slightly over-owned due to their cheaper prices, recent wins vs struggling teams, and TES being priced up. These game conditions will lead to higher kill scores than your average SN matchup, so I don't mind paying up for TES primary stacks. TES is slightly more reserved with Qingtian in at top lane over 369, but they still will bring the fight to you early and often. SN knows this and will probably draft for this, so I expect a bloody affair regardless of who wins. I will definitely roster both sides in this match, with CAPTAINS in play for me from both, mainly the ADC's and MIDs from both sides.
Top TES plays: Knight, JKL, Karsa, Qingtian
Top SN plays: Bin, Huanfeng, Angel, SoFm
7:00 AM: JDG (-150) vs.WE (+123)
The last matchup of the day is a key matchup for both sides looking to get into a solid playoff position. Both teams have had similar struggles this split with shot-calling and decision making, leading to their downfalls vs inferior teams at times this split. This is why I see both teams coming in tomorrow with a "minimal mistake mindset" and will slow the game down enough to where we don't see 20+ kills in each win, as it has recently been for both squads. I seriously see this as a turning point for the rest of the split, for whichever squad comes out on top, so I expect some restraint from both squads in terms of engagements/skirmishing.
I think this one goes three games, as these teams match well in most lanes. JDG has an edge in the jungle and mid-lane, while WE have the stronger top and ADC players, with support being even. I like WE here at plus money to get the job done 2-1, through the carry performances of Breathe and Elk(easiest lane matchup tomorrow). I prefer secondary stacks/one-offs from this match as well, as we see the more reserved and thoughtful play from both sides, as it really is a pivotal matchup for both tomorrow. FADING this match to prioritize the BLG and TES/SN games is fine by me, as it should be a great game to watch, but not so sure for DFS purposes.
Top WE plays: Breathe, Elk
Top JDG plays: Kanavi, Yagao, Zoom
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: BLG 2-0, TES 2-0, GEN 2-0, WE 2-1, T1 2-1
- Fading both LCK matches except for team slots seems like the play tomorrow, but GEN is a sneaky primary stack that could get you there in a sweep potentially.
- I think SN is the best dog on the whole slate in the most important match, so I will have some of them mixed in with BLG and GEN. Good luck tomorrow!
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