RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Our winners for each series were correct yesterday but the score predictions were slightly off. KT and TT swept as predicted, but DWG dropped a game, while TES came back in game two to complete the sweep. KT was the ideal stack that allowed you to fit TES as well. We cashed but are looking for another takedown this split so let's get into it! As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, June 26th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: GEN (-264) vs. AF (+210)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. This LCK matchup probably won't be explosive enough to be the top stack on the slate, but I do think some blood will be shed. Both teams have been more proactive earlier in the game than last split( AF first in EGR and GEN G is second) but the game breaking fights will come in the later stages. Both these teams are capable of playing from behind and throwing a lead from ahead, which concerns me for DFS scoring purposes. But this series should be lower owned in general, so I will definitely have secondary stack exposure in this one.
I am leaning towards GEN to win this one 2-1. GEN have been on a bit of a lucky upswing, in the sense that they have played multiple game threes recently and the opponent has thrown a lead in each game three GEN has won. AF do look improved, and have the talent to compete on the top side of the map, but the pivotal matchup in this one is in the bot lane, as new starter Leo has his toughest matchup of the split so far. If this one goes three games I'm not so sure the winners will end up in the optimal lineup, except for maybe a one off. Also, AF have higher K + A numbers than GEN, so I will mainly be playing secondary GEN stacks and hedging primary/secondary AF stacks. I won't be getting too many captains from this game, as I expect it to go three games. This makes this game a FADE or one off play for me. I'm looking at mainly Ruler, as he's the cheapest he's been all split over on DK. I will have a few AF one offs as well, as Kiin is showing glimpses of his peak form, and Dread leads the team in KP%.
Top play: FADE
Top GEN plays: Ruler, Bdd
Top AF plays: Kiin, Dread
6:00 AM: BRO (+224) vs. NS (-284)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. BRO are playing some cohesive, teamfight focused style of league of legends, and it's lead to improvements from last split. They are also a bot focused team, focusing on getting Hena and Delight ahead, but Lava has shown he is here to stay in the starting lineup. NS are also in a better position as last split, signing Gori to replace Bay in the mid lane. Gori's impact has been noticed already, and he is still pretty cheap on DK. Peanut and Deokdam are the main carries of this NS squad and are priced as so.
The solo lanes will make the difference here, as the bot lanes are pretty even. Rich and Gori are a great contrarian secondary stack to get to if NS can sweep. That being said I predict NS to come out on top in classic NS fashion, winning 2-1. I expect another three game series over in the LCK, making this another FADE or one off from this match. Won't be having any CAPTAIN exposure in this one either. Also, if I had to choose an underdog to secondary stack from the LCK, it would be AF. However, I will have a couple of TEAM one offs/ Hena or Lava one offs from BRO for salary savings.
Top play: FADE
Top NS plays: Rich, Peanut, Deokdam
Top BRO plays: Hena, Lava
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: RA (+103) vs. WE (-125)
This first series in the LPL tomorrow projects as a close one. I think these odds would be flipped if it were last split, with RA being favored. But tomorrow, I am in line with WE being the favorites, perhaps even too small of favorites. WE have come out of the gate stronger than RA but have had a slightly easier schedule too. Again, the pivotal matchup in this one are in the solo lanes, as the bot lanes are evenly matched. Top lane I would give a slight advantage to Breathe, even though Cube holds a 67%CTR compared to Breathe's 44%. Jungle advantage goes to WE, as Leyan has shown to be a question mark ping at times. Mid lane is the most crucial matchup tomorrow, with Mole having to step up and show us some of that V5 magic that he had, up against RA's most talented player in FoFo tomorrow. I give Fofo the edge but Mole HAS to show up if WE want to secure a victory. RA are a good GPP play tomorrow.
I am going to have to find some leverage somewhere, and WE could come in lower owned than normal since it's a big slate, but chances are they come in around 15-25% still. I predict a WE 2-0 sweep after getting swept by FPX, and I'll eat some of the Elk chalk along the way, hopefully at lower ownership since he is expensive and coming off a bad loss. He is a top scoring option on the entire slate, and demands resources from his team to put him in a position to carry. Give me ALL the WE tomorrow for my primary stacks, and give me a few shares of RA as they play better against teams that will start the fights first, allowing RA to counterpunch just as hard. WE have some of my favorite CAPTAIN options for tomorrow's slate as well.
Top WE plays ALL, by preference: ELK (trust me just lock him in at captain), Mole (good pivot captain option off of Elk), Beishang (cheaper captain option and double jungle lineups are very viable at the moment), Breathe, Missing
Top RA plays: FoFo, iBoy
5:00 AM: BLG (-120) vs. OMG (-101)
This matchup had me swapping back and forth. One thing I am sure of is that this game could end up the highest scoring of the slate, or the lowest scoring. The range of outcomes is that large when you play a team like BLG. BLG are a team that can show up and beat/lose to anyone on any given day. Though BLG have an idea of how they want to play the game, it hasn't been working out for them too well. OMG have had the tougher schedule so far this split, and rank above BLG in the standings at the moment. OMG on the other hand have made leaps and bounds from last split, and have a talented young roster that took down IG and RNG this split already. They are drafting really well in this meta, and OMG is my favorite underdog on the whole slate.
The carry potential from each OMG lane is really high, and that's the LPL for you. Mechanically skilled players can make up for their macro mistakes by just picking/executing fights and skirmishes well. I will gladly grab OMG at cheaper odds than BLG, a team that is very hard to trust based on their week to week gameplay. OMG have shown me more calculated teamwork so far this split, so give me the OMG squad to keep the momentum rolling, in clean 2-0 fashion. I will have multiple CAPTAIN plays from OMG, starting with Able, who leads his team in KS% and is up against the BLG DTH% leader in Ppgod.
Top OMG plays, ALL by preference: Able (up there with Elk for top scoring option/preference for me on this slate), Cold, Creme, Aki, New
7:00 AM: RNG (+136) vs. FPX (-166)
This should be a quality match to watch and roster players from. Both teams play a more skirimshing style of league, and will opt into early game fights. RNG are the underdogs in this rematch of the 2021 Spring finals (RNG won 3-2) with the same exact rosters. Expect some fireworks in this one. Give me RNG at plus money to outperform the recently struggling FPX bot lane. Yes, RNG have struggled since returning from MSI, but they will get up for this rematch of the finals. I'm looking mainly at Cryin + Wei to suppress the red hot DoinB and his early game jungler Tian, which is a tall task considering how DoinB has started this split. If Cryin can perform like he did vs FPX in the finals, then they are set up for a win, as this is the most pivotal matchup in my eyes tomorrow.
The talent in this series is absolutely stacked, and I expect a really close series, with RNG coming out on top 2-1, still scoring well enough to be an optimal secondary stack. RNG have edges in every lane except the solo lanes, who I give a slight advtange to FPX. But this game will come down to teamfight execution in the late game, a strength for RNG and a weakness for FPX in general. CAPTAINS from this game are in play, and I will have light exposure to FPX secondary stacks as RNG has struggled a bit.
Top RNG plays: Cryin, Gala, Wei, Ming, Xiaohu
Top FPX plays: DoinB, Nuguri
Summary
- TLDR: Definitely a multiple-entry slate, as I see this one going a bunch of different ways but my picks are, GEN 2-1, NS 2-1, WE 2-0, OMG 2-0, RNG 2-1.
- OMG 2-0 demolition of BLG, WE 2-0 bloody sweep even against a slower RA team, RNG goes the distance vs FPX. Over in LCK I expect some close matches and no sweeps tomorrow.
- Since I don't see any LCK sweeps tomorrow, I prefer an LPL team slot with an LCK player one off. Good luck tomorrow summoners!
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