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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FOUR matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Feels great to have league back in full swing, so let's keep it rolling headed into the weekend. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, June 25th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: DRX (+162) vs. KT(-199)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. This LCK matchup doesn't necessarily scream "stack one of these teams in every lineup," but KT are worth a look if they can pull out a sweep against a weak DRX squad, that is worse off than last split. KT (5-6 in games, not series) have made noticeable improvements since last split, while DRX (2-10) are unfortunately trending in the wrong direction. KT could realistically have at LEAST another series win, as they took AF and GEN G to three games each and threw leads in both game threes. DRX are worse off than AF and GEN G, and aren't making many proactive plays around the map this split. They are playing a more reactionary based style of league and that doesn't bode well for DFS, but it could be just the recipe for KT (league-leading 0.79 CKPM) to bully DRX in two games, hopefully leading to optimal secondary stacks with concentrated kill share for the KT carries. I don't expect DRX to dramatically switch playstyles over a week, even though it's been a rough start, so KT should have their way with the pace and pressure in this series. KT win 2-0, and I'll be loading up on secondary stacks and KT TEAM from this series. I won't be looking at any CAPTAINS from this game.
Top KT plays: ALL, by preference (Noah, Dove, TEAM, Doran, Blank, Harp)
6:00 AM: HLE (+323) vs. DK (-426)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. I'll open this series by claiming that Chovy Life Esports(2-5 in games, not series) is dead. Rest in peace, as they haven't showed us any similar gameplay to the HLE that finished third last spring. This team has not shown any cohesion whatsoever, as they are constantly getting caught out in rotations and out of position in teamfights, DK (7-5 in games) are also a shell of their spring selves, and are looking to bounce back after a three game loss to BRO. From what I've seen this split, BRO are the better team than HLE. This is just what the doctor ordered for DK to bounce back and find a series victory here, likely another sweep. DK have been struggling since MSI, but I don't expect them to have much trouble here, even with Malrang starting in his fourth series start this split. His Rumble is definitely a comfort pick for him, and he looks capable so far of going up against Arthur and HLE tomorrow. I'm hasty to recommend primary stacks of DK in this one, but I truly believe they will win comfortably 2-0 against a terrible looking HLE. Also, with the slower nature of the LCK, I wouldn't be surprised to see the LPL series both go 3 games and STILL outscore at least one LCK sweep (assuming both sweep.)
Therefore, I'll be mixing and matching primary/secondary DWG stacks in most of my lineups. I'll be over the field on them, after they lost a tough one to BRO. I'll have CAPTAIN exposure from this DWG squad for sure, preferably Malrang or Canyon, as they can help you fit in more expensive favorites.
Top DWG plays: ALL, by preference (Canyon, Malrang, Showmaker, TEAM, Khan, Beryl)
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TT (-184) vs. V5 (+150)
This matchup should provide some fireworks, as both these squads like to brawl, and could be the slate breaker. Two of the bottom tier teams in the LPL of similar skill level usually is a recipe for a 24-16 final score after game one, with game two being a complete blowout. But seriously, TT(1-10 in games) have ran the absolute gauntlet to open up the season with losses to JDG, WE, TES, FPX, and LNG. Sheeeesh.
Tomorrow though, they do get their first WINNABLE matchup of the summer against V5(1-8 in games). V5 have four LDL(development league) upcomers plus Uniboy, their best player, and have faced JDG, LNG, RA, and WE. I am leaning slightly towards TT to pick up their first series win here in 2-0 fashion and here's why. Uniboy said in a postgame interview (vs JDG) that they look at the game more creatively because they have a lot of young players, who know they can't simply outmatch the strong laners in the LPL, and I [Uniboy] have been teaching them more about wave management, etc. This strikes me as a nice way to say my teammates aren't good enough yet to beat better teams. TT were COMPETING with top tier teams last split off the back off SamD and Xiaopeng (RIP Twila unless he starts but I doubt it.) V5 are in the extremely early stages and lack consistency. TT have switched lineups since last split, but still have the talented core of Xiaopeng and SamD, who can definitely out perform their assignment counterparts tomorrow. Most team stats for these two are pretty even across the board, most notably TT holding a 64% First Tower rate compared to V5's 33%. TT hold a seven percent dragon advantage over V5 as well.
Give me TT to sweep here in bloody fashion. They are priced somewhat expensive on DK. I will have mixes of TT primary/secondary stacks to break the slate in terms of scoring, as this series has a chance of being the highest scoring on the slate, right behind the next LPL match. Even if TT win 2-1, a secondary stack could end up optimal. I will hedge with some V5 however, as they looked somewhat improved vs JDG last match. JDG has been struggling in this meta though. CAPTAINS from this game are definitely in play from both sides, to help fit the expensive TES and DWG members.
Top TT plays: SamD, Xiaopeng, Patch
Top V5 plays: Uniboy, Kepler, pzx
7:00 AM: TES (-346) vs. LGD (+268)
This matchup is very similar in terms of overall outcomes to the other LPL match, and could break the slate. These teams like to fight and skirmish often, resulting in 40+ kill games being a real possibility tomorrow. LGD are a great GPP play tomorrow, most notably because TES's side lanes aren't in prime form at the moment. Qingtian is a good Sett player, but has a hyper aggressive lane matchup vs Garvey (68%KP for a top laner is crazy, but the other side of the coin is his near 30%DTH) with help from Shadow as well. Karsa does a good job at tracking the enemy jungler and allowing his lanes to play aggressively and safely, but these side lanes don't have me convinced they can sweep aside their counterparts. TES's bot lane has shown early two vs two mistakes, and struggle to find advantages in some games this split. Kramer has been off to a strong start this split in a meta with champions he prefers. Mark loves to go in whenever he sees an opportunity, which could result in a volatile bot lane matchup I will have my eyes on.
Give me TES to come out 2-1 in a close series, with Knight being a prime one off for me tomorrow. I think TES's scores will be suppressed due to them losing a snowball game from LGD, making them mostly secondary plays tomorrow. HOWEVER, if LGD win 2-1 ,which is very possible, they could be the highest scoring team on the slate, as TES will most likely try and fight their way back into the game.
Top TES plays: Knight, Karsa, Qingtian, Jackeylove
Top LGD plays: Kramer, Shad0w, Xiye, Garvey
Summary
- TLDR: Definitely a multie-entry slate, as I see this one going a bunch of different ways but my picks are, KT 2-0, DWG 2-0 and less bloody than the KT series.
- TT is 2-0 bloodiest, TES 2-1 second bloodiest right behind TT.
- Most likely looking at LCK team slot tomorrow with an LPL captain. Won't be surprised when V5 and LGD win tomorrow but good luck tomorrow summoners!
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