RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super week!) and LCK. Unfortunately, this last slate was a rough one, as I prioritized HLE (swept by LSB and looked horrible) and RNG (upset by a bunch of former RNG players haha.) Short-term memory is in full effect and we move on to bigger and better slates. There are a lot of heavy favorites again on this one, so let's see where we can find an edge. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, June 19th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from Bovada. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: DK (-750) vs. DRX (+450)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out, not sure if Ghost will sub back in or not, same with Destroy. DK sits at 2-1 while DRX sits at 0-3 this split. I'm not too worried about DK, even with their recent struggles since MSI. DRX has not looked good this split, and ranks bottom three in a majority of team categories. DK just flexed all over AF with multiple lane swaps and handled business 2-0. This should be a slower match as DRX rank last in CKPM in the LCK.
DK has struggled to cultivate early leads by 15 minutes, resulting in a negative GD15 along with DRX. DK has been able to recover from their early stumbles with great mid/late decision making and execution. Regardless of who starts for DWG, I still think they have the better team at the moment. DRX looks worse than last split, just like HLE lol, and DK are still a top-tier team in this league. Showmaker ranks second in the LCK in KS%, putting the team on his back, and has another chance to do so here. Pyosik and Beryl both rank top five in the league in DTH%, and are key components to their team's success. I'm only looking at DWG secondary stacks and TEAM slot to play tomorrow, as they flex their muscles in each lane and take a clean 2-0 victory.
Top DWG plays: ALL, by preference (TEAM, Showmaker, Malrang (if he starts), Beryl, Canyon, Khan)
7:00 AM: KT (-130) vs. AF (EVEN)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. KT is 1-2 to start off while AF is 2-1, and have had a significantly easier schedule. I was beating the KT drum in their close losses, and knocking AF down since their terrible finish to last split, and am still not convinced. Has either of these teams really turned a corner? Both LCK series today are secondary stacks for me at best today, as they will probably be much slower-paced than the LPL matches. However, getting this match right could be the slate breaker.
KT ranks first in EGR and ninth in MLR, while AF ranks fifth in both categories. With both teams also ranking under a 0.75 CKPM, so I don't expect an extremely bloody match. AF ranks fourth in GD15 (360), and top two in FT% and F3T%. Kiin(first in LCK in GD10) was able to carry AF to some wins this weekend on some of the new power picks in the top lane (Gwen, Lee sin) while this is arguably KT's easiest match of the split up to this point(played NS, GEN, and DWG.) KT have formed leads against tougher competition than AF, and rank top three in the league in GD15 (1276), FB%, and FT%. Noah is a shining spot for KT, and ranks third in KS% in the league, with Leo ranked right behind him at fourth. The X factor however for me is the top lane matchup, as whoever gets a lead up there can help their teams push forward into the mid/late stages for their kill-heavy ADC's to shine.
I still don't trust AF but am hoping people will prefer to get to them for savings in a close matchup because I really like KT's prices here to sweep and help you fit in the bigger LPL favorites tomorrow. I just think KT has made some tough decisions in the mid/late stage that top teams have been able to capitalize on. AF were known last split for having weak late-game stages/execution. KT looks improved and will only get better if they stick with the same roster, so I'll take a risk and play for the KT sweep tomorrow, making them my favorite value plays for tomorrow and a lower owned primary stack that I love for GPP's.
Top KT plays:
- Dove - MID - can generate a lead in this meta, especially vs a weaker mid lane in Fly
- Doran- TOP - volatile matchup vs Kiin, plays the carries very well
- Noah - ADC - looking to put the team on his back, good start to the split
- Blank- JGL - has to perform well vs one of the top junglers in the league
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: RA (-1100) vs. V5 (+600)
This matchup is pretty straightforward. RA is in a similar spot from last year, in the sense that I don't think they have greatly improved, if at all. However, I fully expect them to take down V5 in two games, simply because they have the better players in every single role. RA(2-1) plays a slower pace than most LPL teams and has shown to make mistakes in rotations and team fight positioning in nearly every series so far up to this point. V5 on the other hand is yet to win a game and is most likely a bottom-three team in the league. Their roster is mostly LDL young talent, looking to develop this split.
Uniboy is the strongest player on this V5 roster, but he draws the toughest matchup vs FoFo, the best player on this RA squad. RA could potentially try some new strategies in the draft, resulting in more drawn-out games, but I don't see any paths to victory for V5 in this one. Quick 2-0 that I will be under the field on as far as exposure, simply because V5 is potentially the worst team on this slate, and RA isn't a team known to blow you out of the water in victories. RA is my least favorite primary stack of the LPL matches today.
Top RA plays:
- TEAM - RA - will be able to have advantages in each lane, in turn allowing Leyan to have jungle priority, grabbing objectives all around the map
- FoFo - MID - toughest matchup vs Uniboy, should be a focal point in their victores along with Leyan
- Leyan- JGL - right there with FoFo in terms of impact on this team, and more in tune with FoFo in this meta
5:00 AM: RW (+1200) vs. EDG (-3300)
Another chalk favorite in the LPL, this one featuring the 0-2 Rogue Warriors and a 3-0 EDG. Not much to go over again, as EDG have arguably the top three players in the entire league in every role. RW seems to be working on developing their young talent as well, but hold the lowest CKPM in the entire league at 0.65 CKPM, with EDG second to last with a 0.70 CKPM. My concern in this one is similar to the RA series, that EDG will simply beat RW so badly that their scores may not be optimal in a primary stack. RW was a faster, more aggressive team with Haro in the lineup last split, but now with Icecoke it seems they are opting for more teamfighting and less skirmishing. EDG typically opts into scaling and more team fight focus as well, so that does bode well for RW as far as their chances to win increasing as the game goes on. Fights later in the game are more meaningful than those earlier.
EDG won't drop the ball here (I said that about RNG lol) because RW has far worse players in each role. It's really that simple, and EDG are the biggest favorites on the slate, so for that purpose I'll be fading this game, sticking only with the TEAM slot for this quick and easy 2-0 for EDG. They are also the most expensive team on the slate.
Top EDG plays: TEAM or FADE
7:00 AM: FPX (-1800) vs. TT (+800)
The last series of the day is another chalk favorite, with FPX(2-1) looking to bounce back after a tough loss to LNG. TT has had an absolute GAUNTLET of a schedule, with losses to JDG, WE, and TES. Now they have to face FPX. Seriously, whoever made TT's schedule felt bad and was like let's just get their tough matches out of the way early. TT looks to be opting into these skirmishes and teamfights more than the other two LPL dogs on this slate, making FPX my favorite primary stack over in the LPL.
Teams so far vs TT this split have put up some slate-breaking numbers, and I don't expect TT to slow down the aggression here. I am willing to throw in a prayer lineup as TT is one of the better bottom-tier teams in the league, and FPX's morale could be shot after almost nearly sweeping LNG, but then dropping the ball and getting reverse swept. FPX's bot lane has looked to be struggling at times. That being said, I will be over the field on FPX and their bot lane, looking for a bounce-back 2-0 win vs an extremely beatable, bot-focused opponent. Tian and DoinB will support their bot lane in this series with teleport plays, roams, and play for teamfights around dragon objectives.
Top FPX plays: ALL, by preference(Lwx, Crisp, Tian, DoinB, Nuguri)
Summary
- TLDR: DK swiftly 2-0 again and score well for secondary stack, KT 2-0 for leverage stack as it's the closest projected series, RA 2-0 and score well as secondary stack, EDG easy 2-0 so I will fade, FPX 2-0 and bloody. All the favorites winning by sweep? What could go wrong? Maybe AF ruining my dreams, but in order of preference, I like KT, FPX, DK, RA then EDG.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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