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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. We took down the $0.50 mini-max last night! I couldn't have done it without the great discussions and chats here at Rotoballer. You have to love the edge that can be had on these four game slates. BLG reverse swept and GEN G handled business in three games as well to assist me in the takedown. I was mostly on WE, NS, and LGD (lol) but that's why you grab exposure to multiple sides of close matches. On to the next one though, with this one being more straightforward (hopefully) than yesterday. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 17th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from bovada. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: BRO (+425) vs. T1 (-700)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. First off, I prefer stacking T1 over DWG over in the LCK. Secondly, both these LCK series could very well be quick sweeps with the enemy not putting up much resistance. In five games so far this split, BRO holds a 0.56CKPM. It's a small sample but it confirms BRO still prefer to play a slower pace like last split. T1, also in five games, holds the league leading 0.81 CKPM, and really looks like a team that can thrive in this meta and make a worlds run.
T1 are coming off a 1-2 loss vs DWG, but cultivated early game leads a majority of the series. They are first in the LCK in EGR (Early Game Rating) and middle of the pack in MLR (Mid/Late Rating.) DWG weaknesses were again exposed, but their mid/late shot-calling, poise, and decisiveness in game three allowed them to turn the tables vs T1 after just one bad engage from T1. BRO rank top five in EGR and MLR, but are not a top five team in the league, and have had weaker competition than T1 so far. T1 should roll here, as BRO couldn't close out a mid-tier AF team in game three even with a great early game. The BRO vs AF series was extremely slow paced in games one and three, and I don't expect BRO to deviate too much from their slow tempo, bot focused playstyle.
T1 sweep 2-0 here, bouncing back after a tough loss to DWG, but with some positives coming out of the loss for sure. BRO look similar to last split, and even slower, in a meta that revolves more around the early game (I guess not in the LCK?) This series is a TEAM slot 1 off or a T1 + TEAM mini stack for me.
Top T1 plays:
- T1 - TEAM - should win every lane and grind down BRO and their objectives
- Canna- TOP - in a favorable matchup against Hoya, who doesn't attract many resources top
- Keria- SUP - will be heavily involved in a series vs a bot focused team
7:00 AM: AF (+475) vs. DWG (-800)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. There is slight sub risk for Leo for AF. AF are 2-0 to start off the split, but have faced bottom tier competition. DWG are 1-1 after getting swept by KT, something I don't think will happen again. AF are a team that are known for struggling in the mid/late game department, where DWG thrive. Even if AF forms an early game lead, I don't trust them to be able to bring it all the way home for a win (unless Kiin gets fed on Gwen, reason they reverse swept BRO.)
AF is currently dead last in the LCK with a 0.44CKPM (zzzz) but do provide opportunities to skirmish. They usually just opt out of those opportunities. They do like to contest Rift Heralds, while DWG will also do the same. I'll be honest and admit I do not enjoy rostering AF players. DWG also have the better players, in every role. Their record so far is fluky in the sense that they have only played bottom tier competition so far. I fully expect DWG to come out ready for a victory against a team ranked higher than them in the standings at the moment.
Objectives are probably going to be the main focus in this series, and DWG are fine with opting into teamfighting later in the game and trying to extend small advantages for as long as possible. Similarly to the T1 series, this game is a 2-0 sweep for DWG, with a TEAM one-off or DWG player + TEAM mini stack for me. I don't think stacking both LCK favorites will be optimal, as usual, but especially today with the favorites being against really slow paced competition.
Top DWG plays:
- DWG - TEAM - great bounceback spot here against a weak AF team
- Beryl -SUP - my favorite DWG play, as he should be involved in most engages. Going to show up big for the first time this split
- Showmaker - MID - great matchup vs a vulnerable opponent in Fly
- Ghost - ADC - has to step up in great matchups like these
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TES (-2000) vs. TT (+900)
This matchup seems like it's pretty straightforward, with TES sweeping. However TT are actually one of the better low-tier teams in the LPL. We witnessed RW beat TES early last split, is this a similar spot for TT? TT are sending out Ye in the mid lane once more, after they got swept by WE in convincing fashion. TES are coming off a 2-0 loss to JDG.
The one and only win condition for TT in this series would be for SamD to have the series of his life, as he is the best carry on this roster. I don't see it happening tomorrow. TES have the better players in every lane except arguably top lane. Even though Qingtian had a rough debut, the step down in competition is real, now up against the veteran LangX. Both teams rank in the top five in CKPM this split, and we saw TT have an exhibition vs JDG, fighting constantly. The action in this game should kick off early and often, making this my favorite primary stack even at their expensive price tags.
This one is a no brainer for me, as I highly doubt TES even drop a game here, as TT looked utterly terrible vs WE, a playoff team to be fair, and were down significant amounts at 15 minutes in both games. Give me all the TES exposure, hungry for their first win of the split and willing to play with their food a bit.
Top TES plays: ALL, by preference (Knight, Jackeylove, Zhuo, Karsa, Qingtian)
7:00 AM: FPX (-350) vs. LNG (+250)
The last series of the day WILL be the slate breaking one, as FPX faces their toughest competition of the split up to this point, with LNG coming off an amazing 2-1 victory over JDG. It'll be the difference between JGL/TOP captains taking down contests or with MID/ADC captain takedowns with the value coming from an underdog. LNG are looking improved from last split, and beat JDG at their own game. They were the ones forcing the fights around objectives, with their solo laners doing the heavy lifting as opposed to Light and Lwandy. Icon looks reinvigorated, Tarzan is still heavily involved in the action, and the fearless Ale thrives in this meta. Tomorrow, FPX will have their first real challenge of the split.
With LNG being such a slow team last split, it was really surprising to see them pull off the upset vs JDG with early game aggression and unique picks(Icon locked in the Yasuo and went nuts.) I expect them to come out with the same mindset vs another skirmishing/early game team led by Tian and his early aggression towards lanes. I think this series will play out similar to how it did vs JDG. LNG will contest objectives and look for teamfights, look for side lane picks(mainly bot) and small skirmishes, and perhaps keep Light on an ADC with some sort of engage (played all Varus vs JDG.)
I believe FPX are the better team, but the momentum LNG has built to start off the split shouldn't be ignored. FPX faced RW and UP so far and sit at 2-0, while LNG are 3-0 and have faced increasingly tougher competition. LNG show up once again tomorrow, besting another LPL titan and winning 2-1, this time led by the bot lane, where FPX has been struggling the most recently. They are cheap enough on Draftkings to help you fit the big favorites and get unique, as they are sizeable underdogs. This game should be the slate breaker so I will have exposure to both sides.
Top LNG plays:
- Light - ADC - will take advantage of a struggling FPX bot lane, team KS% leader last split
- Lwandy- SUP - will be heavily involved in all fights, led team last split in KP%
- Tarzan- JGL - looking in form and highly involved with these meta picks
- Icon - MID - I consider him a streaky player, may be chasing here but will probably be involved in side lane action too, to match Doinb roams.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0, DWG 2-0, TES 2-0, LNG 2-1. LNG for value, as this is FPX's first challenge of the split, and LNG is coming in HOT. Other favorites win comfortably. A LCK team slot and/or player one-off will probably be optimal. LPL looks to be where you want your primary stacks from tomorrow.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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