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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Feels good to have another four game slate, along with seeing how these teams are appearing out of the gate. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who ended the last split and/or played in the playoffs. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, June 16th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from bovada
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: DRX (+110) vs. NS (-140)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. I'll open by saying I think both LCK series today will be lower owned due to the slower pace of the league. Is this the series DRX wakes up? I honestly think DRX has the higher ceiling as a stack, even if they win in three games, as NS could puts up more deaths in close losses. But, spoiler alert, I will be rostering zero DRX players tomorrow.
If DRX win, they could very well put up some good numbers, as NS have trouble closing games out with certain team compositions(a solid reason they don't usually sweep.) So far this split , NS does have the worst MLR, even worse than DRX. However, NS can truly gain advantages through every role, and have built some momentum early on, while DRX has tripped right out of the gates. DRX looks worse this split if anything, but could just be having trouble adjusting to the meta (lost 2-1 to GEN and last swept by AF). NS have looked pretty convincing in their wins, barring a couple of slip ups, and a sweep here will definitely help them become an optimal secondary stack.
Most people are going to look past DRX, and I think that's for good reason. They have looked pretty bad so far, and really struggled vs AF, a team that finished beneath them last split. Although NS aren't a great team, they are a playoff team, and do have the talent to take down some of the top tier teams. NS is just a team that doesn't sweep often, dating back to last split. This makes them an interesting primary or secondary stack (depending on how expensive you go in the CAPTAIN slot) They have two 2-1 victories this split, but give me NS to win 2-0 here against a lifeless DRX who has to show me something before I roster these guys.
Top NS plays: In order of preference: (Peanut, Deokdam, Kellin, Rich, Gori)
7:00 AM: GEN (-455) vs. KT(+310)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. There is very slight sub risk for Bdd, Life, and Rascal for GEN and sub risk for Blank, Dove, and Harp (though sweeping DWG probably boosts your chances of staying in the starting lineup.) This is a tough one to choose a side, with both teams having good outings so far this split. KT was able to see DWG battle it out with T1 for three games, perhaps giving them a better idea as how to draft vs. them. GEN has had weaker competition this split and sits at 2-0 and KT at 1-1, but I think GEN are slightly bigger favorites than they should be.
KT looked heavily improved from last split. KT swept DWG and finished with a kill total of 35-9, and a tower total of 17-2, and a 6-1 dragon lead over the series. Sorry to rant on about KT here, but I held the position that they played really well in their opener vs NS even though they lost. I also didn't expect them to take down DWG in their second match. DWG were exposed a bit at MSI, mainly their side laners weaknesses, and simply got smacked by KT. GEN G are seeming to come out strong in this new meta, with their side laners, Ruler and Rascal, already being dominant on the power picks in the sides (Sett, Ezreal, Akali prime examples that I expect to see tomorrow.) I don't expect many to chase KT in another tough matchup, so I'll be siding with KT on this one, as they are still cheap on Draftkings and can help you fit TEAM WE who are the proper chalk play today in my opinion.
I thought about this for a bit, sorry, as I was originally on GEN. It's early in the split, and KT have also built some momentum coming into this one. I see this whole series as a DOG or PASS, and I don't know if KT can get you there if they lose a game badly, as GEN G aren't super bloody in losses. That being said KT win 2-1, making them good value plays for tomorrow.
Top KT plays:
- KT - TEAM - can still get you there in a 3 game series, primarily to help fit the more expensive captain favorites on the slate.
- Doran - TOP - Rascal will sometimes get stuck on tank duty, while Doran usually does not, I expect an advantageous matchup here at a cheap price on DK
- Dove - MID - seems to thrive in this meta and has had a great start to the split
- Blank- JGL - will probably play udyr or rumble and be well involved in fights and skirmishes
- FADE - LPL games look much more enticing for DFS, with higher sweep chances in my opinion
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: WE (-1800) vs. V5 (+800)
This matchup seems like it's pretty straightforward, and that would be WE sweeping. If you are feeling spicy enough to play V5 here for value/secondary stack at minimal ownership, then here's an angle for you. The head coach of V5, Domo, is in his second match with his new team facing off against former. Domo coached Team WE for 15 months, and now leads a group of young, hungry, LDL developmental players (exactly what he did with TEAM WE and earlier teams) early in the split where teams are finding their footing in the meta. WE switched their mid laner but that's it, so Domo should still have strong knowledge of the remaining members favorite and worst matchups/champions and small tendencies that still remain in WE's gameplay.
That being said, I'm going with a bold team WE 2-0 prediction here. I think WE handle business here simply because they have the more talented players in every role(by a good margin). Sometimes it's just that simple. WE are aware that they will be against their old head coach, providing a little extra motivation to stomp these games. WE will most likely be the highest/2nd highest owned primary stack on the whole slate, so you will have to get different by taking Captain from an underdog most likely.
Top WE Plays: ALL, by preference: (Beishang, Elk, Breathe, Missing, Mole)
7:00 AM: BLG (-200) vs. LGD (+160)
The last series of the day features the new and improved LGD squad (who are underdogs here?) vs. the Enigma, BLG. This BLG always puts together a good roster on paper, but once they get on the rift it seems like it never clicks. They've lost to both EDG and LNG in three games, so far this split. The opposite has happened in regards to LGD's start to the split, who could easily be 2-0 at the moment, and have had a hot start with new members coming together.
I was sort of joking but not really, as I don't understand why BLG are this highly favored, but this line seems fishy to me. LGD have probably had the slightly easier schedule so far but were pretty convincing in their wins. BLG have only shown me some really tight victories, nothing convincing, and have some had questionable engages from Ppgod and the new roster. BLG pound for pound will have their hands full with this aggressive, young team. I expect this matchup to revolve heavily around the mid lane, as both mid laners like to play the style of getting their side lanes ahead and skirmishing. Xiye and Zeka share some champions, are key components for their team's success (both like to engage and start fights.) This one boils down to Xiye getting off to a hot start and creating an advantage vs Zeka, in turn creating advantages with Shadow for Kramer to carry the late game.
However, I'm looking at LGD's Garvey to have his hands full for at least a game, as BLG Biubiu draws a lot of KS% and attention. So if you're looking for pieces from BLG for a secondary contrarian stack, look no further than the old V5 pairing of WeiWei and BiuBiu (sorry Ppgod you got to show me something before I convert back to the church.)
I like LGD to win 2-1, scoring well, but not slate-breaking, as BLG aren't very bloody in losses and are a very slow team, making them my third favorite stack on the slate. I do think one player from LGD could end up optimal, even in a three game series.
Top LGD plays:
- Xiye- MID - Zeka struggled last week vs Icon, so I expect Xiye to be able to get you there as a one-off even in a three game series
- Shadow- JGL - looking in form and highly involved with these meta picks
- Garvey- TOP - is going to have to bring his A game vs a very aggressive top focused team
- Kramer - ADC - good insurance for late game carries, and I expect a slower game vs BLG, making Kramer a strong win condition
Summary
- TLDR: NS 2-0, KT 2-1, WE 2-0, LGD 2-1. KT continue their momentum and take down another LCK titan. I could see LGD sweeping tomorrow, and NS winning 2-1 but like I mentioned in the first series, LCK matches will be lower owned and I'll get different building WE/NS stacks instead of LPL matches. WE handle business vs old coach.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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