RADIO
Welcome back Summoners, to another edition of my LOL breakdown article featuring four competitive matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. Another great slate for multi-entry. Last night was a tough slate with BLG and Suning losing as the two favorites I felt good about, but on to the next one. On a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who ended the last split and/or played in the playoffs. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, as ill try to post/retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, June 12th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: NS (-155) vs. LSB (+120)
This is the first match of the day, so starters should be announced. We've seen both of these teams play this split, with NS besting KT 2-1, and LSB getting swept by BRO. LSB are in a good spot here for GPPs as far as ownership comes, but after dropping both games with a gold lead, I can't trust they are up to the task of an NS squad that played well and made small mistakes vs. a KT team that actually also looked really improved at points in the series, on difficult team comps as well. LSB I can't say the same, as they looked completely scattered, lost, and apprehensive in their series vs BRO. This one I will have all the NS exposure and zero LSB.
NS should be able to gain advantages around the whole map. If anything I think NS should be bigger favorites, as LSB looked hopeless vs BRO (who just lost a close series to AF.) Peanut will be able to dictate the pace of the early game, and should run over Croco in this matchup, who had a terrible series vs BRO. Deokdam and Kellin are an underrated bot lane and should be aggressive in this matchup. Rich has a high ceiling for a top laner, against a team that enjoys fighting and puts resources into the top side of the map, I can also seeing him go big here. Gori also looked good in his debut, up against a tougher matchup today however in FATE.
NS win 2-0. I can't stomach predicting LSB to take a game here. They just looked so bad against a team of their caliber, supposedly. LSB is not on a good path here, and I like NS coming out stronger than last week in this meta that suits them well.
Top NS plays:
- Peanut- JGL - too cheap on DK for an extremely winnable matchup, can help you fit double jungle captain lineups which I like tomorrow
- Deokdam- ADC - lead the team in KS% last split, good but quieter series last time out
- Rich - SUP - great carry option in this meta for NS, in a crucial matchup
- Gori- MID - great contrarian play in a winnable matchup
7:00 AM: HLE(+175) vs. GEN G (-230)
For our last LCK matchup, we have GEN G coming off a 2-1 victory over DRX, who came out looking motivated. HLE got swept by T1 and drafted some whacky compositions, something they are no stranger to. HLE was the top team in the LCK in CKPM, while GEN G was 7th at a much slower pace. GEN G leads in EGR, GD15, FT%, and vision numbers. Both teams highly contest dragons, HLE leading with a 58DRG%, and I fully expect multiple team fights to break out over dragon control in this series.
I expect GEN G to punish HLE by giving advantageous draft matchups to Clid and Rascal. Clid should have his way in the jungle vs. yoHan who struggled vs T1. Clid is arguably the main cog of this team's success, leading his team last split in KP%. Rascal also quietly had a great spring split, 2nd in KS% among all top laners, and 1st in Kills (had a couple of extra games ahead of other tops but still, a carry champ player.) Bdd vs Chovy in the mid lane is a close matchup , with the edge to Chovy (if they don't stick him on Volibear), and is an interesting one-off if you think HLE pull this off in three games. Chovy will 9 out of 10 times be the reason HLE would win in a spot like this. Captaining Chovy would also provide some leverage, as most will play the favorites in this matchup, making HLE a good GPP play early in the split.
GEN G win 2-0. Rascal and Clid will run this series for GEN G, along with Ruler and Life showing up in team fights. A primary stack is a good option, as HLE love to fight and get bloody in losses, while hopefully less ownership comes on on GEN G after they dropped a game to DRX. If you do go with HLE, I would go with mini stacks from them, as GEN G are less bloody in losses and I doubt they get swept. GEN G bounce back huge here with a clean sweep.
Top plays: ALL
- Clid - JGL - team leader in KP%
- Rascal - TOP - significant matchup and I expect all carry champs for him this series
- Bdd- MID - tough matchup vs Chovy, low owned for how much potential he has
- Life- SUPP - Will be involved around the map while Ruler farms
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: JDG (+165) vs. TOP (-210)
Banger alert, as JDG face off against TOP in a rematch of the Summer Split Finals. JDG just bested TT 2-0, in what looked like a warm up exhibition for this match vs TES. It's opening day for TOP Esports, and they have only had to prepare for JDG. I think this will be a tightly contested series, with plenty of skill expressive champs coming out in draft. The talent in this series is immense, and I expect a bloody, bloody affair.
TOP lead JDG in every team statistic, excluding a slight advantage to JDG in DRG% and even JNG%. In the finals last split, JDG showed they were able to cultivate early game leads, with TOP showing superior team fighting in the later stages of the game. These early game leads came off the backs of Lvmao roams, and Kanavi/Zoom skirmishing extremely well. TOP have the ability to match these skirmishes, especially with Karsa being primarily a jungler that plays for his lanes, by tracking the enemy jungler effectively through vision, and counter-ganking.
TOP are an absolute wagon, and with the same roster I don't expect them to struggle at all vs mid-low tier teams. However, JDG definitely can compete here and even win outright, which is what I'm rolling with in three games. JDG win 2-1, coming out guns blazing with Zoom and Lvmao showing up BIG.
Top JDG Plays:
- Lvmao - SUP - big playmaker/roamer, meta suits him well
- Zoom- TOP - will have a tough matchup, but again this meta fits his playstyle so well
- Kanavi - JGL - will be active around the map, has to be able to generate early leads with Lvmao and Zoom to win
- Loken- ADC - top-tier ADC stats, has to perform well vs an aggressive bot lane
7:00 AM: EDG (-275) vs. IG (+200)
ANOTHER ONE, as EDG and IG face off for the late morning hammer. IG are coming off a 2-1 victory vs a struggling SN in this meta, and EDG dropped a game to BLG, but still won as well. IG are probably going to roll with their new top laner again, Neny, who should have his hands full with another tough matchup vs Flandre.
EDG lead last split in EGR, GD15, FB%, FT%, and vision stats, but IG only trails slightly in most team stats. IG excel in the earlier/mid stages of the game, while EDG excel at team fighting and fighting around objectives. The most crucial matchup for me in this series is the jungle. IG has the more carry, aggressive jungler in XUN, who played well last series. Jiejie for EDG is a key component for the early skirmishes that will get Scout and Flandre ahead.
I admit I thought Bin would handle Neny, but the resources Neny received helped suppress Bin in the series vs SN. However, Scout and Viper are a whole tier upgrade from Angel and Huanfeng (who is slightly beneath Viper it's mainly Angel who is a step down,) so Rookie and Wink will have to play just as sharp. Rookie was on more supportive, play for his side lane carries role vs SN. I'm not sure that will go so well for IG this time around. Scout is in a meta that will hopefully bring him OFF of control mages, which will unlock his ceiling potential even more. This guy is insane, and yeah he is against Rookie, but EDG are going to come out motivated after dropping a game to BLG. EDG aren't extremely bloody, but with IG forcing the issue I like EDG as a primary stack here to counter the IG engages. EDG win 2-1 with the top side of the map popping off early in games, IG stealing a game off the back of XUN.
Top EDG plays:
- Scout - MID - serious carry potential in this meta, hope to see him get sylas or zoe tomorrow
- Meiko - SUP - look for him to have better insane primary engages tomorrow, getting involved and showing IG Lucas who's the best support on the rift.
- Viper - ADC - team leader in KS%
- Jieije- JGL - has to match the aggressiveness of XUN, if they want a chance to take the series.
Summary
- TLDR: NS 2-0, GEN G 2-0, JDG 2-1, EDG 2-1. Close games tomorrow in LPL, going three game in both in classic LPL fashion. Double LCK sweep takedown prediction.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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