RADIO
Welcome back Summoners, to another edition of my LOL breakdown article featuring four tight matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. This slate is great because all four underdogs can take their series, honestly, making this a great one for multi-entry. Barely missed cash today with JDG and KT secondary stack, but on to the next one. On a side note, I exclusively play on Draftkings. For Fanduel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who ended the last split and/or played in the playoffs. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, as ill try to post/retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, June 11th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: AF (-195) vs. BRO (+155)
This is the first match of the day, so starters should be announced. AF also opened the last split against this same BRO roster and swept. This time around the meta is different, and BRO is coming off a 2-0 sweep with similar odds, building some momentum against a team that definitely had a shaky second half of last split. AF finished 9th last split (5-13, after starting 3-3) with a four-game win total ahead of dead last BRO (also 5-13.) I just don't trust Afreeca at all after they ended last split in a pitiful fashion. Multiple game and baron throws in the 2nd half of the split, as they finished 9th looking completely demoralized.
AF ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of CKPM and will move Lehends/Fly around the map, mainly for Rift Herald (tied for 1st last split in HLD%). This BRO team had four out of five members (excluding Hoya) in the top five last split in KP%, in the entire league. Although they didn't win a whole lot, they definitely have an identity which is to group and fight. AF Dread and Bang are the two carries for the squad, with Dread being the main cog in the team, leading in KP%. Kiin showed brief moments of his former self early last split, but I still think this is a fine matchup Hoya. Lava is coming off a career series, earning a quadra kill and pentakill, and has another advantageous matchup vs Fly. Fredit Brion can slow the game down enough to make AF eager to pull the trigger, causing them to overstep and let BRO counterpunch. AF are also slightly bloodier in losses than in their wins, as compared to LNG from the LPL games. The kill correlation on BRO will be the reason they outscore BLG.
BRO just beat LSB, which isn't saying a whole lot, in comfortable fashion and are being undervalued here. Last split it was mostly the Hena show, with Umti directing the shot-calling, Hoya on tank duty, and Delight on some form of engage, with the biggest question mark being the mid lane. Lava came to PLAY last week and again this week's mid lane matchup is just as winnable as the last. It already seems like BRO are headed on the right path to improvement, and a very slight step up in competition from last week is just what the doctor ordered for a 2-0 start to the split. Fredit Brion wins 2-1 and is my favorite secondary stack, winning outright vs. a pricey AF on DraftKings.
Top BRO plays:
- Lava- MID - some will consider it chasing, but this matchup is one I'm not scared of
- Hena - ADC - lead the team in KS% last split has to perform well vs. a bot lane carry team
- Delight- SUP - great engage option for BRO, cheap and saves you $$
- Umti- JGL - great contrarian pivot off the most expensive jungler, Dread, and should be heavily involved in victories
7:00 AM: DWG (-240) vs. T1 (+180)
Boy oh boy, on paper this matchup looks great, with plenty of star power in this one. It's early in the split, and who better to face right off the bat if you're Zefa than your old team? This is the strongest roster iteration of T1 since the beginning of Spring in my opinion. T1 is coming off a clean 2-0 over HLE, while DWG come off a 2nd place run at MSI, where teams seemed to be able to match DWG in the side lanes, not allowing Showmaker/Canyon to run over everyone. Beryl specifically had a rough showing, and against world tier competition tomorrow in T1, will we see DWG fall once more early this split?
Statistically, T1 in the spring held an edge over DWG in EGR, FB%, FT%, F3T%, and 1st in GD15, while DWG held the best MLR, DRG%, HLD%, and BN% in the league. DWG was 2nd in the league in CKPM, while T1 ranked 5th. I believe this game will slow down, and both teams will draft more comfort in this whacky meta. Top-tier teams want to minimize mistakes as they know the other will be able to capitalize. That being said, I am fading this close matchup in my lineup tomorrow, as I think this one goes three games, resulting in suppressed scores for the players. I lean T1 because their bot lane is better right now. Even if it goes two games instead of three, I don't see either team losing so bloodily, so a team slot 1 off is fine with me too. Neither team will lose handily, making it a solid FADE for DFS purposes.
Top plays:
- FADE
- T1- TEAM - 1 off in a more macro focused series, sweep not super likely but for savings purposes
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: BLG (-180) vs. LNG (+140)
BLG added former V5 members WeiWei and Ppgod to the roster this year and were an interesting team to watch last split. They were able to form a couple of thousand gold leads, then reach the mid-game or a dragon fight and just blow it all away. Teamfighting was not their strength, but recently against EDG (a PRIME team fighting style team), they managed to take a game and keep the other 2 games somewhat competitive for a bit. LNG just beat V5, but V5 will probably be a bottom three team in the league. This matchup will give us an early answer about how LNG has improved, as far as proactivity around the map, compared to last split.
This matchup should revolve around the top side of the map. With BLG's newly added members, I expect them to play for Rift heralds and top priority, while LNG's bot lane trades for gold on the other side of the map. LNG's strongest part of the map is the bottom side, with Light and Lwandy being strong win conditions for LNG. However, they don't typically move around the map so much. LNG was 4th last split in FT%, most of the time through bot lane advantages. BLG needs PPgod/Zeka and WeiWei to click on all cylinders just like on V5, and roam around the map with Zeka, to give BiuBiu some help in a completely winnable matchup vs Ale. Ale is coming off a strong performance vs V5, but again it was V5's rookie LDL top laner. BLG put BiuBiu on a lot of carries last split and put him on three carries vs. EDG.
Give me BLG to win 2-1. I think BLG is another great secondary stack of 1 or 2 members, as they beat LNG and score better than the winner of the 2nd LCK matchup between T1 and DWG. Biubiu is my favorite play as a 1 off, with WeiWei, PPgod, and Aiming coming right after.
Top BLG Plays:
- PPgod - SUP - big playmaker/roamer, will convert you to the church of Ppgod tomorrow
- Biubiu- TOP - will have a winnable matchup, with resources, and plays mainly carry champs
- Weiwei - JGL - will be active around the map, was really the WeiWei and Ppgod show back on V5
- Aiming- ADC - mid-tier ADC stats, but has to perform well vs a bot-centric team
7:00 AM: WE (+120) vs. SN (-155)
The last match of the day projects as a close one, a rematch of last split's second round of the spring playoffs in which Suning swept the higher-seeded WE 3-0. The rosters will be out today but I expect that Mole will start (coming over from V5 this offseason along with head coach Assassin.) Suning just lost to IG, 2-1, a couple of days ago and is looking to bounce back with the same roster. The team stats are really similar throughout, with slight edges to WE in most categories, excluding MLR, FB%, KD, and vision numbers.
Matchup-wise, mid-lane should be crucial, as Mole vs. Angel have had a big impact on their teams' side lane success, with Mole having more carry potential. Angel does have the pocket pick Kassadin however for AP matchups. Top lane is close with a slight edge to Bin, but Breathe also put up some great performances on carries last split and certainly has a case for besting Bin. The jungle matchup leans towards Beishang as he is the more aggressive player, but SoFm can definitely hold his own in this farming meta. The X factor this series comes from both bot lanes. Elk (formerly Jiumeng) and Missing can outperform Huanfeng and ON if they are having a strong day, but it's who shows up for the support role that makes the difference. WE like to skirmish around both neutral map objectives, and were top-five last split in CKPM. Suning prefers to play a slower, split pushing, more Bin-focused playstyle, but against a team like WE who prefer to group and force the issue, Suning is in a good spot to ramp up the kill count.
It's Suning for me 2-0 in this matchup, with Huanfeng as my favorite play, as he didn't have many opportunities to pop off vs. IG. I'm looking at ON and Angel to have better performances this time out, as they struggled vs IG. Suning as a primary stack is really intriguing since they are typically a slower team, but WE can get pretty bloody in losses. Give me Suning to bounce back strong vs. a public dog that people love to roster.
Top SN plays:
- Huanfeng - ADC - first in LPL last split in KS%(players with at least 10 GP), quiet series last time out vs IG
- ON - SUP - lower owned option tomorrow, look for him to have better primary engages tomorrow.
- Angel - MID - 2nd on the team in KP%, in a key matchup
- SoFm- JGL - has got to keep Beishang in check, look for him and Angel to be involved in countering side lane plays
Summary
- TLDR: BRO 2-1, T1 2-1, BLG 2-1, SN 2-0 with the whole slate being up for grabs. Suning smashes and are my favorite primary stack. I don't trust AF or LNG until I see more from them. I like how BLG and BRO played in their series. Fade T1/DWG series, gonna be great to watch from a viewer perspective, not for DFS. This is THE slate for multi-entering, as all four dogs are live and barking. Come back tomorrow and see how well we did!
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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