RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! This morning was definitely an outlier in terms of DFS, as both LCK favorites absolutely smashed, and the losing team in LGD outscored RA in their three-game series. WBG won a bit too easily and wasn't an optimal stack as I was pretty high on them and RA yesterday, but we press forward and learn from these types of slates. Doran was also a surprise re-addition from Covid back into the GEN lineup, and I believe the news broke after lock. We have to keep these sorts of situations in mind when rostering LCK teams. Tomorrow is a great slate with plenty of close matchups, so let's get right into it!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, February 19th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DRX (-303) vs. HLE (+238)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Kingen/Pyosik/Zeka/Deft/Beryl for DRX, and DuDu/OnFleek/Karis/SamD/Vsta for HLE. DRX is coming off a low-scoring, macro-focused upset vs DRX, and HLE is coming off a sweep loss to KDF. These two teams faced a couple of series ago where DRX had to use most of their challenger roster to play in game one and managed to win. That series resulted in a monster score for Deft who has been in his best form of the split these past couple of weeks, while HLE is definitely on the downswing.
I can't roster HLE right now. DRX has been in much better form although in some games they are making some poor decisions like most teams. Their past three series wins have been three-game series, but I think this time around they should handle HLE in two games. Sure HLE may steal a game but I don't see HLE winning the series. Also, HLE has been willing to push the pace in the early game like vs KDF last series and in their first match vs DRX. DRX has been a good early game team and usually blows games open with a couple of team fights in the mid to late game, so perhaps HLE tries to push the pace early again. With DRX's prices being raised as well maybe that keeps their ownership low. DRX is an intriguing full-stack tomorrow but I will most likely be focusing on smaller DRX stacks tomorrow.
Top DRX plays: Deft, Kingen, Pyosik, Zeka, TEAM
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5:00 AM: BRO (+125) vs. KDF (-152)
For this LCK match, we should see Morgan/Umti/Lava/Hena/Delight for BRO and Kiin/Ellim/Fate/Teddy/Hoit for KDF. This match is shaping up to be the least appealing on the slate. KDF looks to be slightly improving, sweeping their last two opponents in HLE and a Covid-riddled NS. BRO seems to be opting into more skirmishing, scrappier games of league. This is NOT the BRO I know and I don't expect them to keep putting up these 20 kill games in wins or losses. KDF has scored well in these last two sweeps and may draw some ownership as they have scored well along with BRO being involved in some bloody series recently. BRO swept KDF last time these two met, and it was a terribly slow series with BRO combining for 23 kills in their two wins.
I predict that KDF will come out with a draft plan to disengage from this skirmish and team-fight orientated BRO team. KDF has shown much stronger early gameplay recently and I expect that to continue tomorrow. They will focus on comfortably scaling into the mid to late game where they should come out on top in team fights over objectives. Some of this will come down to the draft, but I like the way KDF has been drafting comfort picks and focusing on getting their star player Teddy ahead and in a strong position to carry. This KDF roster looks good on paper, and we are finally seeing some improvements that have resulted in wins. That being said, I am mainly interested in BRO when they are underdogs, but after dropping their last two series to LSB and KT, I think these two squads are trending in opposite directions. Give me KDF to sweep here, and I will be mostly fading this match or playing a Teddy/KDF one-off or small stack.
Top KDF plays: TEAM, Teddy, FADE
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: WE (+255) vs. OMG (-328)
We open up the five-game slate with my favorite match to target for DFS. Team WE just came off a victory vs LGD which isn't saying a whole lot, while OMG has lost five of their last six series, albeit being against some tougher competition. Now that Beishang is back for WE, there was an instant improvement in the shot-calling and coordination for this WE squad. They really hit rock bottom when he was out and they can only go upwards from here now that the heart and soul of the team is back in. OMG is a team that people love to roster against some of the lesser competition in the LPL, but does that justify them being the most expensive/second most expensive stack on the entire slate?
I personally think this line is pretty off. OMG is implied to win this series slightly over 75% of the time, and I think that's just too heavy. Creme and Able are the main carries for this OMG squad and face off against Shanks(who has some really good numbers in terms of KP% and KS% among all LPL mid laners) and Xing, who is coming off a spectacular performance vs LGD. In the jungle, I give the advantage to Beishang as well, and BiuBiu looked much more involved and improved with Beishang back in the lineup as well. Kedaya is a hit-or-miss support player but is up against Cold who is basically the same style of player. I just can't find a reason to justify this line being so heavy in favor of OMG. At the worst I see WE taking at least one game if they were to lose, but you can guess which team I'm siding with here.
I will be prioritizing WE for full and small stacks tomorrow. OMG is a team that dies a ridiculous amount of times in losses, and WE is a team that won't back away from early skirmishes and team fights. These two volatile styles of play result in some high kill totals and perhaps a three-game series, where I can still see WE getting there as a full-stack. I will be overweight to the field on WE stacks altogether in GPP's, as I can see two 20+ kill wins coming for the new-look team WE with my guy Beishang back in the picture.
Top WE plays: Xing, Beishang, Shanks, BiuBiu
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4:00 AM: AL (+342) vs. BLG (-461)
BLG is once again a hefty favorite over the opposition after dropping a three-game series to IG. AL is on a recent surge winning two of their last three series and as expected, putting up some massive scores in their wins. Doggo is coming off a rough series and was benched for Uzi, but is being reinserted back into the starting lineup tomorrow. I expect a bottom-focused match here, and I expect this game to draw a good amount of ownership considering the recent bloodbath that these teams have been involved in recently.
BLG is a playoff team in my opinion. I have a feeling that both sides will be over-owned tomorrow on this five-game slate. We have seen BLG opt into slower, more macro-styled gameplay, especially against weaker teams. They know that they don't have to risk the whole game by being overaggressive and forcing unnecessary risks in the early game. The thing with AL is that with how volatile their playstyle is, it usually results in some bloody affairs. However, I believe that BLG will dictate the pace in this one and after dropping that series to IG in nuclear kill fashion, they will choose to slow it down this time around. This can be done by drafting some solid disengage and peel, and we have seen BLG draft this in the past. They will probably look to generate leads on the top side of the map and let Doggo play some weak side, slower-paced league this time around, as he was pretty aggressive in his loss to IG in game one. I like BLG to sweep in this one, but will be focusing on small BLG stacks here, and prioritizing full stacks from team WE and a team from this next LPL match.
Top BLG plays: FoFo, WeiWei, Doggo, Breathe
6:00 AM: JDG (-125) vs. TES (+103)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is looking to shape up as an interesting spot for both teams with some blood to be shed. JDG is trending up and has been dominating in their wins, especially against lower-tier teams, but when they lose it hasn't looked pretty. TES is still in freefall as they are trying another roster iteration in hopes that it can solve their woes that have been plaguing them all season. They just haven't looked on the same page all split, while JDG looks the exact opposite in their wins this split. I was on TES last time out when they faced RNG and it ended poorly, and facing another team that has looked like a playoff team at this point in the split, I find it hard to back this TES squad again. Not to mention, we have 369 facing off against the team that got rid of him for Zoom, who is currently riding the bench. I do believe TES will squeak their way into playoffs and turn it around at some point with the amount of talent on this roster, but I can't see it happening tomorrow.
JDG is led by the early game dominance of Kanavi in the jungle while roaming with Missing to establish early vision and priority for their lanes. Hope has been excellent since entering the starting lineup, and Yagao isn't even heavily needed in some of their wins even though he has been pretty spectacular in some games. Missing has some spectacular KP% numbers amongst all LPL supports and needs to be in your JDG stacks along with Hope and Kanavi. This team should find plenty of opportunities to find kills in this series, as TES is a bloody team in their losses. JDG full stacks and small stacks are a priority for me tomorrow.
Top JDG plays: Hope, Kanavi, 369, Missing, Yagao (load up on the JingDong gamers)
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on JDG, WE, and DRX tomorrow. I am trying to become more diligent on not hedging, as I want to just commit to a favorite or underdog from here on out. The BLG/AL game should see lots of ownership come in, but I see BLG dictating the pace and handling business in a slower fashion than their last nuclear kill match vs IG. It seems like a scary fade but I have to choose my spots on this slate. Fading the BLG match in hopes of a lower than optimal sweep along with the KDF game are my two least favorite games to target tomorrow. OMG super expensive on DK could keep ownership down but I am loving team WE tomorrow.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are WE/JDG, JDG/WE, JDG/DRX, and WE/DRX. I'm hoping WE isn't super chalky since they are cheap and can help fit in BLG for example, but OMG is just too expensive and has made way too many mistakes recently in their recent slide. This game should be a great one for GPP's. DRX in a rematch against HLE should also provide some small stack value but I still prefer JDG stacks.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like JDG with DRX, or even BLG and JDG. Not much of a cash player myself.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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