RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 2/11/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! We are back again after the Lunar New Year break with our first five-game slate since before the break. There have been Covid issues in the LCK so pay attention to news on Twitter from the LCK account and by searching around for those updates. NS currently will be playing with their Challenger league roster with Canna and Dread (on tomorrow's slate and the 13th it seems) based on what we have seen from NS's official Twitter account. Ghost, Bdd, Peter, and Effort have all tested positive for Covid. As of right now, Canna and Dread will be eligible to play because NS has been testing daily and neither of them has tested positive yet. HOWEVER, at the time of writing this article, it is 4:30 AM in South Korea, meaning there is plenty of time before the slate starts for Canna and Dread to test positive and therefore be ineligible to play in tomorrow's series. Keep track of the NS official Twitter account for updates. NS's Challenger team isn't even in the DK player pool. Besides that, we've got a solid five-gamer tomorrow so let's dive into it!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on new additions. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, February 11th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: BRO (+140) vs. NS (-200)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Sw0rd/Umti/Lava/Hena/Delight for BRO, and NS's challenger roster isn't even in the player pool so you can't roster them, you can only roster Canna and Dread if they play. It's an interesting time for DFS, and this is an interesting match for GPP's. NS struggles to find wins(6-9 match record) in the Challenger's league so this line doesn't make any sense to me as BRO should be favored here or close to a pick em'. BRO is a very intriguing spot tomorrow.
This is a match I'll be mainly looking at for one-offs and small stack plays. BRO plays at a sluggish pace, very similar to KF. The upside is pretty limited for teams that play them. However, in their close match vs T1 near the beginning of the split, we saw T1 put up some really DFS-worthy numbers in three games. This is due to the fact that BRO kept the games close and was contesting multiple objectives. I can definitely see BRO keeping this game close even with Canna and Dread playing, and winning outright in a sweep if Canna and Dread are unable to play.
I think whoever wins this series wins in three games and could put up some sneaky good scores, as we have seen from NS in the past, as well as DRX and T1 when they faced BRO. NS isn't necessarily the cleanest team(can be good for DFS) and does like to scrap around objectives. NS is one of the strongest early game teams, but BRO actually has a better MLR(mid to late rating) than NS. So even if NS gets ahead early, doesn't mean they will translate it to a dominant win, which is what we are looking at for good DFS scoring, where closer team fights usually result in more fights in general over the course of the game. This is a very interesting match to get exposure to in DFS at low ownership for both sides probably, but there are much more intriguing spots for pace-up matches over in the LPL. Small stacks of both sides from this one are a sneaky play, avoiding the TEAM slot because I think this goes three games regardless of who wins. I lean BRO to sweep if Canna and Dread are out for this one, and BRO full stacks would definitely be in play for me.
Top BRO plays: Hena, Lava, Umti, Sw0rd
Top NS plays: Canna, Dread
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5:00 AM: HLE (+119) vs. DRX (-145)
For this LCK match, we should see DuDu/OnFleek/Karis/SamD/Vsta for HLE and Kingen/Pyosik/Zeka/Deft/Beryl for DRX. DRX is coming off a 2-1 win vs KT in which they played a very sloppy game two that resulted in some good DFS scoring. HLE is coming off a 2-1 loss to T1 and also provided good DFS scores in their sole win. So far this season, however, these two teams haven't been known to run up the kill count. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the LCK in CKPM(pace measurement known as combined kills per minute.)
I am more interested in the other LCK match if I had to choose one to small stack from. HLE and DRX are two similar bot-centric teams that usually rely on their junglers to generate early leads, then translate their leads into a rift herald to then facilitate the rift herald gold into their bot lanes. Their EGR and MGR ratings are similar, so whichever team gets ahead SHOULD be able to close out the game. We have seen sloppy games from both sides but with both teams already having a game under their belt after the break, I expect slower more calculated play from these sides with less risky gameplay, compared to the other LCK match. I'll be fading this match or grabbing some HLE small stacks or one-offs for salary purposes, a dog or pass spot for me on this five-game slate. I also think this one goes three games, as I am not confident in either side of this one to sweep the other.
Top plays: FADE, SamD one-off, Deft one-off
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: AL (+257) vs. UP (-308)
Onto the juicy LPL matches that should see some bloodshed. I do generally like being overexposed to the LCK matches as the field usually gravitates to the LPL matches and rightfully so, but we have two high kills projected matches here in the LPL, this being one of them. Same starting lineup for UP, but AL will be sending out Forge over Maple in this one. This line is eerily similar to two matches ago where UP was around -300 vs LGD and ended up dropping a game. UP scored very well that series and Elk broke the slate as expected.
I am cautious when it comes to predicting sweeps in the LPL which is one of the most volatile leagues in the world, although it can be considered top-heavy by some. But when you have two middle-of-the-pack/bottom-tier teams facing off the volatility only increases. UP are the second most expensive team on the whole slate, and is somewhat easy to get to a four-man stack if you play OMG as your small stack(will get to that game shortly.) Both these teams are coming off their extended break and could look rusty. AL is a high upside stack if they do come out on top. These teams play at a high pace in wins and losses, so similar to the JDG vs WE matchup this morning, you will need parts of this game in your lineups. Also, in a dragon stacking meta, AL has a solid 58% dragon rate while UP sits near the bottom of the league at 41%.
I definitely would hedge this match, and I ever so slightly lean UP to win 2-1. UP has had the slightly tougher schedule, and AL most recently lost 2-1 to TT, who may be the worst team in the league besides WE. Maybe the Forge re-integration (he played their first two series) will result in some cleaner gameplay this time around. Forge isn't better than Maple, but he demands fewer resources than Maple and is likely to play a supportive melee champ such as Galio, or even play his melee skirmishers with Sylas/Akali. That being said, I do want some AL overexposure compared to the field, as both teams are bot-centric and Betty has really similar numbers to Elk. Again, these are two very volatile teams and the odds seem a tad heavy for UP. Even if AL wins 2-1, I still think they can put up some great scores for a full-stack but would focus them in small stacks. The player stats are pretty even across the board, and there isn't a glaring advantage in any lane in my eyes. I think UP will be pretty over-owned compared to their counterpart, so I will be overweight on AL in this match and underweight on UP.
Top AL plays: Betty, Xiaohao, Zdz, Forge
Top UP plays: Elk, Cryin, H4cker
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4:00 AM: TT (+942) vs. BLG (-1656)
BLG is the biggest favorite on the slate and rightfully so. TT picked up their first win vs AL, and it took three games to do so. BLG has as many series wins(3-1 series record) as TT has match wins (3-11 match record). I'm not going to spend too much time here.
BLG has been performing very well with their new roster and seems to be clicking on all cylinders. TT is in the middle of the pack in terms of CKPM in their losses, while BLG is in the middle of the pack too in terms of CKPM in their wins. This is lining up for a 2-0 BLG sweep where BLG probably aren't able to pay off their expensive pricetags in both their wins. The AL vs UP match will indeed be bloody no matter who wins, and a quick sneak peek into the next match shows that OMG is EXTREMELY bloody in their losses, while V5 is bottom of the table in terms of CKPM in their losses. I don't think forcing a BLG full-stack tomorrow is the play in GPP's, but I wouldn't be opposed to a Doggo, FoFo, WeiWei, or Breathe one off tomorrow, along with the TEAM slot. Yes, there's a minute chance that BLG drops a game coming out of the New Year break, but I won't be banking on that and have BLG as the correct TEAM slot play tomorrow in their sweep.
Top BLG plays: TEAM, Doggo, FoFo, WeiWei, Breathe (all one-offs)
6:00 AM: V5 (-159) vs. OMG (+131)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is going to be an important one to get right similar to the AL vs UP match. V5 is a slight favorite over OMG, who look improved compared to their form last year. V5 is yet to sweep an opponent, while all four of OMG's series wins have come in 2-0 fashion. With two volatile teams, it's a tough one to predict. As stated in the last matchup breakdown, OMG leads the LPL in CKPM in their losses, while V5 hasn't been super bloody in their five recorded match losses. This is one reason I am leaning V5 in this matchup. Typically, in volatile matches like these, the underdogs are usually a sharp look.
The public perception is that OMG is known as a team that beats up on the teams below them and can't get over the hump when facing teams above them. Initially, I was of the mindset that V5 would come in very heavily owned due to this perception. However, after looking at the stats, the carries for V5 just look more appealing for DFS. OMG will probably come in as the most popular dog on the slate and I'm looking elsewhere for value on this five-game slate. With V5 being priced up they are most likely going to come in lower-owned in a matchup where I truly believe they have the better players in every role. Again, there is a chance both of these teams come out rusty after the break, so that adds to the volatility in this one. OMG is still worth a play on this slate, as they have been playing well, but I will be under the field on OMG and over the field on V5 full stacks.
I think this matchup will be centered around the mid/jungle synergy that will then transfer their leads to the side lanes. Rookie and Karsa have looked stronger than Aki and Creme in my eyes, while Photic is flying under the radar as one of the strongest ADC's this split. OMG will definitely be a popular look tomorrow, and I'm worried they will be too popular. V5 has yet to sweep an opponent this split but tomorrow will be their first and I want to be all over them when it happens.
Top V5 plays: Photic, Rookie, Karsa, Rich, PPgod (load up on V5)
Top OMG plays: Able, Creme, Aki, Shanji
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on V5, BRO, and a little bit of UP and BLG for my full stacks, with AL as my go-to value-stack centering around Betty and Xiahao, mixed in with some OMG for value too. I'll be over the field on V5, BRO, and AL tomorrow.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are V5/AL, V5/BRO, BRO/V5, BLG/BRO, and UP/OMG, which will likely be popular, so I will be underweight on the last stack.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, BLG is a good look as well as UP, with OMG and BRO for value.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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