RADIO
Welcome, all, to another day of the greatest DFS game and Esport to follow. Today is not a slate that I feel happy about on an overall view, but we're gonna have to get creative, that's for sure.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, January 19th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DWG (-280) vs. NS (+221)
Likely both of these teams are going to be using the same lineup that they have been putting out thus far this split. For Damwon that means playing Hoya, Canyon, ShowMaker, deokdam, and Kellin and for Nongshim that is Canna, Dread, Bdd, Ghost, Peter.
Overall DWG has a clear edge at pretty much every position except for the top lane. Hoya is pretty brutal in my opinion but he's been getting the job done for them so I guess, no reason to complain. Nongshim has a pretty good team but overall the LCK just has two dominant forces, Gen.G and DWG. There isn't much other teams can do about it sadly.
That being said, DWG is the uber chalk in tonight's contests as they are a favorite that allows for the LPL favorite stacks with decent captains. Don't be afraid to take some shots on NS, they're still about 30% to win, or just fade DWG entirely on the chances they are not a top 2 stack.
Top NS plays: Dread, Canna
Top DWG plays: ShowMaker, deokdam
6:00 AM: KT (-246) vs. HLE (+197)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock but we can make some educated guesses about what the teams will be rolling out.
Last time out KT used Rascal, Cuzz, Aria, Aiming, Life. We can assume they are going to use the same lineup again as these are their best players and they have used this lineup in the past. Hanwha Is likely to use DuDu, OnFleek, Karis, SamD, Vsta. The only sub threats for these teams are at the JNG position where they both have backups, if you're worried about the sub, avoid that spot.
Both of these teams are underwhelming as a whole and I'm not sure why the line is so spread here. If I was to set odds here it would likely be closer to a 55/45 spread rather than a 67/33. I really don't mind either side here but HLE seems like a clear move to me in all GPPs as a small stack, team slot, or rarely a full stack. This is not a fun game to be stacking in cash games, avoid there.
Top KT Plays: Aiming, Cuzz
Top HLE Plays: SamD, OnFleek
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: TES (-518) vs. WE (+378)
There isn't much to report on this match. TES is a massive favorite here and for good reason. Xiaopeng is starting for them again tonight and will likely remain the starter for a while as he just majorly outclasses Tian with his recent struggles. Team WE are still without beishang and until they can use him they are in for a tough road.
Overall, I guess I'm okay with WE in the large field gpps but I really don't like it, TOP is just the much better team here and underdogs are not having a good time this patch.
Top WE plays: View, Stay
Top TES plays: Knight, Zhuo
6:00 AM: LNG (-626) vs. IG (+442)
This is probably the most interesting game on the slate and it's not even close. The odds are extremely lopsided, and while I don't think they're way off, I do think IG should be given about +300 here rather than +442. IG is a fun all-or-nothing team which is ideal in DFS. They brought in a new starting ADC with Ahn today and don't have a bad team overall in my opinion. Lucas and XUN have proven to be pretty good over the last year and I think IG is majorly disrespected here.
I'm definitely going to be taking shots at IG hoping to get that spring 2020 IG kind of result. When looking to use IG, do so in GPPs and make sure to include XUN in your stacks. There isn't really a situation in which IG wins and XUN isn't a top scorer on the slate.
LNG has been hyped up a ton this offseason and the first few weeks of the split. While I am definitely bullish on the LNG roster as a whole, they haven't really shown their skill yet so I still don't mind taking these mid-low tier teams against them. IG also dies hard in losses so LNG stacks are quite viable as well.
Top LNG Plays: Light, Tarzan
Top IG Plays: Xun, Ahn
Summary
- TLDR: Not a fan of today's slate, DWG is really good but really chalky due to pricing, IG is an interesting spot, Team WE are dust with beishang.
- GPP Stacks: Love HLE and IG shots in GPP to pair with some of the heavy-hitting stacks like TES and DWG
- Cash Stacks: I think cash is pretty clearly DWG/TES stacks
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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