RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! New rosters are debuting still, and early season favorites are still very volatile, as NS proved that to us this morning. TT couldn't come through for me even after having a solid start in game two but then threw it away at baron. These guys are worse than I thought. WBG won and swept even after falling behind most of game one, and DK swept KT after a good scoring game one but a slow game two. Congrats to the 1%(literally) that stacked HLE and took down their tournaments. Rough night for me but we can't win every night so let's get into this five-game slate tomorrow!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we might not get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on new additions. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Thursday, January 14th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DRX (+331) vs. GEN (-443)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Doran/Peanut/Chovy/Ruler/Lehends for GEN and Kingen/Pyosik/Zeka/Deft/Beryl for DRX. GEN is one of the two biggest favorites to win the whole split(along with T1) and debuts their new roster vs DRX, who lost their opener to LSB. DRX had a large game one lead (6k gold) but threw it around baron and wasn't interested in stacking dragons it seemed. That's an aspect of their play I didn't like to see, along with Kingen being constantly caught in the side lane. Part of Kingen's struggles came in the draft, where Graves wins vs the Tryndamere early, but falls off later in terms of the 1v1.
GEN looks like an elite squad on paper to contend for worlds. However, DRX has a good roster and after what I saw vs LSB I wasn't completely upset with the results of the series. They just need to clean up some mid/late game decision making and they can contend with the best of the LCK with more time together. I will definitely have shares of a really low-owned DRX because of how volatile 2022 has been so far with these new rosters and the fact that I can envision this GEN squad being scrappy if they fall behind. GEN hasn't played their first series yet and they may need some time to gel together, regardless of how talented their team is. Tough matchups across the board for DRX but I still am a fan of this roster and will take shots in large field GPP's at really low ownership. Zeka can definitely hang with Chovy and wasn't super involved in their last series. I expect that to change tomorrow, with the top side of DRX being the focus rather than Deft. I'll be over the field on DRX and under the field on GEN, getting to full and small stacks of DRX. The number seems slightly too heavy in favor of GEN for an early matchup vs a talented DRX team.
Top DRX plays: Pyosik, Zeka, Kingen, Beryl
Top GEN plays: Ruler, Doran, Chovy
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5:00 AM: T1 (-848) vs. BRO (+565)
For this LCK match we should see, Sword/Umti/Lava/Hena/Delight for BRO and Zeus/Oner/Faker/Gumayusi/Keria for T1. In the last couple of splits, we have seen BRO win one of the last four meetings. T1 is coming off a convincing win vs KF and looked really cohesive and decisive in their win. This doesn't bode well for BRO, who will need a miracle performance from either Hena or Lava(who flashes huge upside once every blue moon,) as Sw0rd is more of a tank player than a carry player.
I will be looking to the T1 team slot in this spot, as well as one-offs. I just don't see much kill upside for this series, as both of these LCK matches seem hard to full-stack in the scope of the full slate, where I definitely prefer getting to LPL teams for my full stacks. T1 has rarely been a team to build primary stacks around as they are a much more macro-based team. They will starve you from your resources and drag you around the map, and finish you off with some great team fighting around objectives with Gumayusi being the main carry. Perhaps they play a little looser vs an inferior opponent and close out their week with some extra kills and blood but I really can't bank on it.
Top T1 Plays: TEAM, Gumayusi, Oner, Keria
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: FPX (-674) vs. LGD (+470)
Now, this is an interesting matchup to get to as far as to kill volume. FPX is coming off a strong performance vs RNG but was outscored by RNG in their three-game series win. FPX was content with letting the fight come to them when they were facing RNG, but against an inferior opponent, I expect them to apply more pressure to the opponent and hopefully find more kills in the process. FPX recently picked up Clid, but Beichuan draws the start again. LGD on the other hand dropped 31(!) kills in their game victory vs AL, but looked lackluster in their next two losses and gave up 15 and 18 kills in those games.
I am a fan of this FPX squad as well and will be looking to prioritize them for full stacks at hopefully some lower ownership than other teams on the slate due to their expensive price tags. FPX looked cohesive and even played well from behind in their first series, and in Demacia Cup, and I consider them a contender to win the whole split. Once again, I am fine with taking a long ball shot with LGD early in the split, as they showed kill upside in their one victory against AL, but I would much rather take underdog shots with DRX and another LPL underdog yet to be mentioned.
Top FPX plays: Lwx, Gori, Xialaohu, Beichuan, Hang(play all the flying phoenix guys)
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4:00 AM: OMG (-160) vs. AL (+131)
This is a series that I would get to small stacks because I see this one going three games as well as going either way. With AL being the shortest dogs on the slate, I expect them to draw some ownership for value. I find these teams to be not so far apart as their odds indicate as well. Similarly matched with a primary ADC carry, mid lane secondary carries, and similar styles of top lane play. It will boil down to the later game team fights as I envision some tight early games. Shanji and Creme were the stars in their last series win vs TT, but we didn't really learn much in that victory considering TT may be the worst team in the league. I do think Forge and Zdz can compete far more than TT's solo laners, which is why I see this one going three games.
I'll have small stacks of both sides in this one, but can see OMG being somewhat over-owned since you can fit four OMG slots with three GEN slots, as well as playing OMG with RNG. I have a feeling people will want to play GEN and RNG at a discount tomorrow, so I am leaning towards having more AL exposure than OMG. AL looked solid in the Demacia Cup with Harder in the mid-lane, and I think Forge starting is an upgrade to the overall roster. It's too close to call a sweep in this series in my opinion, unless one of these teams throws a lead in one of their games which is very possible. I believe this one will go three games and focus on mainly small stacks in this one.
Top AL plays: Forge, Betty, Xiahao
Top OMG plays: Able, Creme, Shanji
6:00 AM: RNG (-339) vs. JDG (+262)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features RNG in a bounce-back spot after losing to FPX, against JDG also in a bounceback sot after getting thrashed by EDG. Even though JDG got swept, they did have success in skirmishes in the early game vs EDG and lost out on the team fights later. Not so luckily for JDG, they face an RNG squad that again is extremely skilled in the team fighting department. Even if JDG again finds early leads, I am not convinced they can transition these leads into wins. Against mid-tier teams, I can make a case for JDG winning the series but this is a rough opening schedule for the JDG squad. RNG knows exactly what they did wrong in their loss to FPX and now gets an easier opponent to iron out their gameplay, and a bloody one at that. I expect an RNG bounceback here, and wouldn't be surprised to see RNG sweep. They could have very well swept FPX Beichuan didn't steal the baron in game one.
It does seem like RNG should be slightly bigger favorites in this one, and the line does seem a tad fishy in my eyes. RNG does have a tendency to start the split slowly, and I believe Lpc is underrated and GALA is slightly overrated, which I think is worth mentioning in a somewhat bot-focused meta. GALA shines on Kai'sa but on other champs seems to have a lower ceiling, and the lane, in general, is dictated by Ming's gameplay. If Ming is having an off day, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lpc and Missing find themselves in an advantageous spot. That being said I will have a little exposure to JDG for secondary stacks in case they pull out a narrow victory and catch RNG slipping here, or even steal a game to provide one-off value, but I definitely prefer the RNG side. RNG full stacks seem like another solid pace-up spot for kills, but I still prefer paying up for FPX.
Top RNG plays: Xiaohu, Bin, Gala, Wei
Top JDG plays: Lpc, Kanavi, Yagao, 369
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be paying up for FPX and RNG, mixing in a little bit of OMG full stacks. For value, I prefer DRX and AL, with a few shares of JDG. I find it hard to believe all five favorites coming out on top, and this early in the split as well with all these new rosters. Definitely want multiple underdog exposures on this five-gameslate.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are FPX/DRX, FPX/AL, and RNG/AL. I think DRX is the sneakiest play of the slate, not lowest owned, but in terms of ownership to chance of being optimal percentages.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, RNG seems like a high upside spot mixed with some OMG in hopes that OMG can score well even in a three-game series. FPX and GEN are harder to get to without going to an underdog for value.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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