RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! New rosters are debuting still, and early season favorites are still very volatile, as TES proved that to us this morning. I'm excited to be back and for my first article I definitely have a couple of spots I like for GPP's on DraftKings (the sole website I play on.) Lots of volatility tomorrow so it's a good slate for multi-entering lineups. Let's get into it!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, January 13th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: HLE (+485) vs. NS (-701)
We should get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match. NS have matchup advantages in every single role and are deservedly the largest favorites on the slate. It becomes a matter of if they are willing to run up the kill count vs an inferior opponent. Canna and Bdd are such strong solo laners that the game could potentially be out of hand before these teams even start to group.
I think NS will want to get in and get out of this matchup, knowing well that they should obliterate this HLE squad. I don't see NS grabbing enough kills to be the optimal primary stack and able to pay off their expensive price tags. However, I will be mainly getting to them for secondary stacks and one-offs, but will probably still be under the field. HLE could very well finish last in the LCK this split, and I don't see them putting up much of a fight tomorrow. NS team slot looks like a great spot and is probably my favorite play overall from this series.
Top NS plays: TEAM, Bdd, Canna, Effort
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6:00 AM: KT (+295) vs. DK (-388)
DK and KT face off with new roster changes, and we won't be able to get starting lineups for this match before lock so buyers beware of potential roster swaps mid-series, mainly with DK's top lane situation. DK is rightfully favored vs a new and hopefully improved KT squad. I can't stress enough how the earlier in the split it is, the more volatile these games are with newer rosters. Team synergy is huge in a team-focused game like LoL. I mention this because KT is pretty much a bunch of talented players with no experience playing together.
Aria returns to the LCK and will have to immediately face off against arguably the best mid/jungle duo in the world in Showmaker and Canyon, while still trying to form synergy with his new jungler and side lanes. It's not a great spot in my opinion for KT, but It's not out of this realm that KT steals a game if DK has synergy issues of their own. In a preseason interview with Ashley Kang, Deokdam and Showmaker sat down and shared their thoughts. Deokdam felt he was learning a lot with the new squad, as well as being really comfortable in the transition. Showmaker mentioned how the team environment is less rowdy and tamer.
I think this is a benefit for DK in the sense that Showmaker and Canyon can comfortably shot call knowing that the team should respond well and efficiently to the calls. I like DK in this spot to either sweep or win in three games, and will have mixed exposure of primary and secondary stacks. Sprinkle in some secondary KT stacks if you're feeling extra spicy but I won't be going there. I have a feeling both LPL series will be more kill heavy than these LCK series, but if both LPL series go three games and DK sweeps, I can see DK being a solid primary stack with the GNP bonus, as well as the fact that I can see this KT squad being more scrappy than their last year iteration.
Top DK Plays: Canyon, Showmaker, Deokdam, Kellin
LPL Matches
4:00 AM: IG (-533) vs. TT (+387)
Puff and Southwind's revenge incoming? TT is coming off a loss to OMG in which they had no chance in game 2. Game 1 was closer but Shanji performed well with the help of Aki and Creme in that series and paved the way to an OMG sweep. IG is opening up their season vs a weaker team, something that boded well for them in the Demacia Cup.
TT's jungler Frigid I have some doubts about, and against Xun, who is a pretty solid jungler and IG''s best player, it could spell trouble for TT once again. However, I see a world where Captain can win out in his matchup with the help of Frigid and hopefully transition that leads to TT's bottom side, where I can also make a case for Puff and Southwind coming out on top, even with how bad the team looked vs OMG. I don't believe IG is better than OMG, so TT should have a better shot here than their last series. TT's bot lane wasn't really the focus in the last series but maybe that shifts in this one.
IG are large favorites in this one, but besides the jungle, I don't see any overwhelming advantages for IG and I don't think they should be as heavy favorites as they are. I am willing to be over the field on TT after a poor opening, in hopes that this matchup is just better for them overall. I will probably have exposure to both sides of this one, as it should be a bloody affair and probably goes 3 games.
Top TT plays: Puff, Captain, Frigid, Southwind
Top IG plays: Xun, Yuekai, Neny, Xiaoyueji
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6:00 AM: WBG (-244) vs. WE (+195)
Both the LCK matches seem straightforward to me, so the slate seems to hinge on both the LPL match results. With some more new roster changes, I was surprised to see Team WE not start Beishang which would've made me like them more, but View grabbing the start against his old org isn't the worst scenario either. He played well in the few games during Demacia Cup seeming very comfortable on the Talon/Xin Zhao jungle picks, which are both great picks in the current meta.
SofM on the other side will attempt to prevent the former teammate from snowballing the game too heavily with the help of the newly acquired Theshy. WBG will also be sending out ON instead of Swordart, both of who shared playing time in the Demacia Cup. I would prefer Swordart here as ON is a very volatile player especially depending on the champ he gets put on. WBG clearly has the team synergy advantage, only swapping out Bin for Theshy, while team WE come in with four new pieces. WBG still may need a series or two to figure out if they want to keep the similar identity of last split and give the top lane a good amount of attention, which is what I envision considering it's Theshy.
Now Theshy struggled last year on a roster with a very subpar bot lane, allowing enemy teams to simply ignore the bot lane and focus more attention on Theshy and his naturally hyper-aggressive playstyle, resulting in plenty of deaths for the former IG top laner. He is obviously a slight downgrade from Bin, but the extra aggression that Theshy brings may benefit or hurt WBG. It really depends on the style that SofM is willing to play, and I feel that Theshy's aggression may take some time for SofM to get used to. Essentially I see the top side of the map is the focus for WBG in this series, as top side should also be the focus for Team WE. Huanfeng will most likely outperform his lane counterpart, and both supports may choose to roam to get their mid-lane or top-lane ahead.
I see this as a close matchup across the board, but still prefer the WBG side mainly because of the synergy advantage, but will most definitely play both sides of this match. I think WBG is definitely the better long-term squad and this meta suits them well, specifically the picks for SofM. View on the other side seems like a sneaky play paired with Shanks and BiuBiu for some top-side action if you get to WE as well. I think this match also goes three games with fewer kills to be had than the other LPL series to close out the slate, but could definitely outscore either LCK series. I could see WBG being somewhat over-owned (along with IG) on this slate, so it concerns me slightly which is why I will be getting to all four sides of these LPL matches.
Top WBG plays : Angel, SofM, Theshy, Huanfeng
Top WE plays: View, Biubiu, Shanks, Kedaya
Summary
- TLDR: Both LCK matches seem like sweep spots to me, more so NS than DK. NS shouldn't score too well considering they should just steamroll HLE, but I am ever so slightly concerned that DK drops a game, so will keep DK mainly as my small stacks, and will have little exposure to NS primary stacks since I will be getting to TT and WE for value. Both LPL matches are the tipping points for me this slate and I think both go three games. I am taking a stand on being over the field with TT and under the field on IG. I think WBG will win but be less bloody than the winner of IG or TT. IG as such big favorites just doesn't sit well with me.
- GPP Stacks: All teams are in play here of course but would look to target the LPL games, specifically the IG/TT series for me, with DK being a somewhat sneaky primary stack tomorrow. Also, sprinkle in some WE secondary stacks.
- Cash Stacks: Look to pair IG with DK. NS is expensive to get to and DK can possibly outscore NS if they sweep which I expect, paired with an NS team slot.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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