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Welcome back esports fanatics, to another LOL breakdown article featuring Four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. My name is Nathan and I'll be filling in for the article today so lets get down to business! Let's see what our best routes to victory are for this 4 game slate locking at 4:00 A.M. EST.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131). We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too just give a quick search for "LPL Lineups" on Twitter and it'll pop right up!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM Friday, July 9th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @NvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: T1 (+169) vs. Gen.G (-209)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. It's also one where I don't think we need to worry too much about starters, these teams have been sticking to the same lineup for a while now, and don't expect them to change in a game that really matters.
Both of these teams are at the top of the LCK and both go into this wanting to claim the top spot for themselves soon. Gen.G has been playing a bit below the expected level. While they've only lost one match to DWG, they've dropped maps on numerous occasions when they likely shouldn't have had they been playing at their normal level. They've dropped maps to Brion, Sandbox, NS, KT, and DRX this split as well as the 2-0 loss to DWG. I'm not wowed by this team, especially Life.
T1 Has also been sub-par this split with losses to Afreeca, NS, Sandbox, and Damwon. I'm a little more confident in T1's squad but this game is truly anyone's and I'd make sure to expose myself to both sides of it. My one thing here is I really think Life has played poorly this split and T1's Bot lane is very strong and can definitely carry them to victory, I'll likely be heavier on them.
Top T1 Plays: Teddy, Canna, Cuzz
Top GEN Plays: Bdd, Clid, Ruler
7:00 AM: Liiv Sandbox(-118) vs. Afreeca Freecs (-102)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches.
This game, like the other, consists of two of the higher-paced LCK teams. However, this one, unlike the other, doesn't consist of top-quality teams. We're much less likely to see a technical game in this one than in the other and I think this one makes for an LCK game I wouldn't mind using as a primary stack. If you're playing more than a few lineups, I'd make sure to use some of these two teams as a primary stack here and there.
The last time these two played each other was only a week ago with LSB taking the W 2-1. We saw 16+ kills from the winner in each game with a 23 kill win for LSB in game 3. LSB is the better team here in my opinion but it's close enough that I'd rule it a coin flip, as the odds do as well. I lean LSB but that's only because I've been playing them since they were bad and didn't have the "Liiv" at the start of their name, I'm a little biased towards them.
Top LSB plays: Croco, Fate
Top AF Plays: Dread, Kiin
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Suning (-253) vs. Oh My God (+202)
I went for weeks without playing OMG, expecting them to regress and for their heightened level of play to be short-lived, but I'm finally understanding that Creme and Able have really added to this team and they play very well as a squad now. SN really didn't trust ON, so much that they subbed him off for the first game of their last series vs. RNG. After losing game 1 and bringing him back into the lineup and winning the series, they must have much more confidence in him. I however still don't. I think that their loss/win against RNG is more explained by View and SofM at SUP than the lack of ON. In addition, RNG had been playing awful and it's not like ON played great games during the series. My opinion on the guy holds, he's still awful and until SN replace him I still think they're vulnerable to almost any team.
These teams are both very aggressive teams, even for the LPL, and as a result, will be playing at a high pace and the winning team is likely to see high kill totals. I'd look to be using this game often as your main stacks or at least use them in your 2-3 stack. SN is likely the secondary stack to be used in cash games but overall I like the OMG side better.
Top SN Plays: Bin, huanfeng
Top OMG Plays: Creme, Able
7:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-251) vs. LGD (+201)
Big news today as FPX has decided to bench Nuguri for at least this match. FPX came out and said "Nuguri's personal performance hasn't been the best lately, and after talking with him a lot, we decided to temporarily promote xiaolaohu to the main team for the game against "LGD." I think the rumor is that he was having communication issues with his team and this may have led to his poor performance. At this point, I think anyone would be an upgrade from Nuguri with his overall performance. He's had some good matches but as a whole has been entirely underwhelming.
LGD, in my opinion, has been overrated for a while now. As a result, they garner higher ownership than they deserve, but they still deserve looks in GPPs when paired with other underdogs. LGD is a team that battles throughout the whole game so both them when they win, and their opponents, when the opponents win, are likely to see ceilings in their own favorable results. This makes both FPX and LGD interesting spots for GPPs although both will likely come in over-owned. Look to pair them with underdogs in GPPs. FPX is also the top cash lineup stack option. They are favored and against a team that feeds kills, definitely not a spot to avoid in cash.
Top FPX plays: doinb, Lwx
Top LGD Plays: shad0w, fearless
Summary
- FPX with a sub, still a great cash spot as well as GPP.
- LGD likely comes in over-owned but paired with an underdog they make for nice GPP plays.
- OMG has a very good chance tonight and I likely come in over the field on them.
- LSB AF is a much more interesting DFS game than T1 GEN but all teams make for good secondary stacks. I'll be heavier on LSB and T1 of those games.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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