Welcome back to RotoBaller's League of Legends DFS column. I just wanted to take a minute to thank all of you who have been reading these articles and giving me some positive feedback on Twitter. I'm thrilled to be able to continue writing about ESports here at Rotoballer and excited about all the attention that our sport is finally receiving (obviously, I wish it were under better circumstances).
We'll continue ramping up our analysis for LoL DFS all week, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. Tonight we have another six-match slate with three LPL matches and three LCK matches. We continue to see DraftKings post some great contests and we have yet another 10-dollar GPP with 50k to first place tonight!
Today I'll be bringing League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL/LCK slate on DraftKings that locks at 2:00 AM on Thursday, April 2nd, 2020. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger and hit me up with questions anytime!
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LCK Matches
2:00 AM: Afreeca Freecs vs. APK Prince
In week two, when these teams faced off, AFS took home a 2-1 victory. Afreeca did a lot of swapping. After game one, an Afreeca victory, they swapped out Mystic their starting ADC. APK then won game two, and Afreeca swapped Mystic back in. They also swapped their jungler and mid-laner out.
Now, however, Afreeca is trying to hang on the final playoff spot and can't afford to play games. Afreeca is still fluid in their jungle position. Spirit did start all three games in their 1-2 loss to SBG. Afreeca needs this set too badly to mess around this close to playoffs. Afreeca is better early, higher first blood percentage, better gold differential at 15, and a higher CSM. They have a better drake percentage because they tend to focus on the bot side of the map.
If they can 2-0, a few pieces here will be desirable. APK has been more active as of late, but unfortunately, all that will do is add to AFS upside. AFS stands out as a GPP play for me. Some of their issues with swapping will be resolved due to them playing the first match.
Spirit - JNG ($6,200)
In the only other 2-0 Afreeca managed on the season Spirit scored 83.6 DKP He nearly has a 66% KP this season. Afreeca is securing first blood at a 63% clip this split. With better laners and likely first blood, AFS should be able to snowball the games to the point Mystic can take over. The best part about this is you'll be getting a bargain favorite with very low ownership.
Fly - MID ($7,200)
Another value choice. Fly clocks in as the fifth-highest priced mid. He has 100 DKP upside in a sweep, and his affordable price will let you load up on some LPL heavy hitters later. Fly is second on the team in KP% to only Mystic. If I love Mystic so much, why don't I just list him as a play? The ADC on a team that could sweep is always in play. He's the second-highest priced ADC on the slate as compared with his AFS counterparts that's expensive. He too has upside for 100 fantasy points Thursday.
Upset Special
5:00 AM: Hanwa Life vs. Damwon
Here we are with the special of the day. I like HLE to beat Damwon here. DWG is coming off a win vs. APK in which the first game was a bit of an anomaly. IT lasted nearly 55 minutes, and DWG won 30-20.
DWG is right behind AFS in the standings just outside of the playoffs. Damwon could be looking ahead a bit as they face AFS and T1 in the next few days. Hanwa is a dangerous team. They have beaten T1 this year. They draft well and have a very strong top-laner in Cuvee. DWG likely start their newly acquired ADC Ghost.
Hanwa likes to flex players in and out of their ADC position, including both mids. They will have the advantage of the red side in this match, meaning they can counter pick 2 of the 3 games if it goes three. Having this option is an advantage in the LCK. Even if they go three and lose, I like Hanwa here as I have some costly LPL players I want to target.
Haru - JNG - ($5,600)
This spot is kind of funny as I was just in contact with DraftKings yesterday regarding a similar scenario. The player I am recommending is HARU current jungler for Hanawa Life Esports. A former T1 backup, he still has an SKT jersey for his picture in the DK player pool. He costs $5,600 on DK. I am not recommending HARO current Rogue Warriors jungler, who is a former EDG back up. He still represented in his player photo by an EDG jersey and costs $5,800. I am also not recommending bonO current KT Rolster jungler and former HLE starter who is represented by and HLE jersey on DK and costs $5,400.
Cuvee - TOP - ($5,400)
The former Gen G top-laner has had an up and down season but still retains the talent to reign in young gun Nuguri. He has played some tanky champions lately with engage skills such as the Sett, Maokai, and Sylas. These will give him some team fight upside. His price is very attractive. He sports a 60% KP and a 24% kill share, which is good for a bargain-priced top-laner.
8:00 AM: kt Rolster vs. Dragon X
This is another upset spot I like. KT has been playing great lately. DRX won all the way back in week one 2-1, but since then KT has shown drastic improvement. DRX is great early but that's their only win condition. They need to get ahead early and snowball. If KT can avoid that in any way they will win, Deft has been making some bad errors and Aiming is absolutely on fire.
My favorite KT stack tonight will be Aiming (6,200) at ADC, bon0 (5400) at JNG, and Kuro (5800) at MID. This trio has slate-winning upside at these prices and rostering them will allow you to pay up for a pricier stack with your other four spots.
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD vs. WE
Team WE are currently in 8th place. They are holding the final playoff spot. Coming off a close loss to BLG they will be looking to turn things around. LGD just had a tight series with EDG but ended up with the short side of the stick.
WE are looking to keep their playoff positioning. They have looked good against the competition they have seen so far. After this matchup, they will see some top tier teams. They need to secure this more comfortable win to hold their spot. WE lead LGD in almost every statistical category. They have better gold generation, drake control, baron control, and vision numbers.
I look for them to be able to control this matchup from start to finish. The problem lies in the price. WE is the most expensive team across the board. They will need to sweep and smash to pay off these prices.
Jiumeng - ADC ($8,400)
Even as the most expensive player on the slate Jiumeng is capable of reaching his ceiling. He is averaging 106 DraftKings points per game in his last four games. One of those even being a 1-2 loss. LGD is a fantasy-friendly squad hovering around 18.5 deaths per loss. Juimeng also leads his team in kill participation and kill share.
Beishang - JNG ($7,800)
He's one of my favorite picks and it almost feels too easy. "BAEshang" has averaged 91.4 DKP over his last four as well. Peanut has become a popular punt play due to his ability to pick up fantasy points even in losses. Bae is a match for Peanut. His farm, gold generation, and kill statistics are very similar. His ability to match Peanut will be key in a WE win.
5:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Billibilli Gaming
We just talked about the close match that BLG and WE played. That match served as an excellent introduction to Meteor for most people. He is one of the top junglers in the league. I also discussed in the lead up to that game about how I expect BLG to begin to build momentum for a playoff push.
Their schedule has turned in their favor. BLG and RW sit in the 13th and 14th positions in the league, respectively. RW is trending down or at the very least static. BLG is set to rise. BLG is usually slow and steady, but RW average 22 deaths in their losses. BLG is a good target in all formats.
Meteor - JNG ($7,200)
My main man Meteor put up 88 DKP in a tough matchup with WE. His nearly 75% KP is second on the team. His opposite number Haro has a limited champion pool, and as I mentioned last time out Meteor is the most flexible jungler in the league. It should be easy for BLG to ban out some of Haro's champs and let Meteor punish him accordingly.
FoFo - MID ($7,800)
Jungle mid duos are often a good fantasy combo, as we've talked about in the past. Fofo makes a good pair with my boy Meteor. He is second in the league among mid-laners, with a 77.4 % kill participation. He is also second in kill share with 30.6%. I've expressed my dislike for Ruby in the past. He is one of the lowest-rated mids in the league in gold generation and CSM. This disadvantage will allow FoFo a free laning phase. Setting him up for mid-late game success.
7:00 AM: Suning vs. TES
I don't know if the Jackeylove to TES is an April fool's prank yet, or not. I hope not because I'm a big Jackey fan. The timing of it is funny due to Quiqui and Photic getting some synergy going lately. All of TES is getting right at the correct time. They are riding a three-game win streak that includes 2-0 victories over JDG and OMG.
Suning's schedule has turned against them. They are coming off losses to WE, IG, and JDG. TES is an excellent objective team collecting 71.1% of their barons. They should also be able to generate an early lead off the strength of Knight.
Knight - MID ($8,000)
Remember how Fofo was second in the league among mid-laners in a bunch of stats? Knight is the guy in first. Commonly regarded as one of the top mid-laners in the world, Knight might be the MVP of the league this year. In prep for the TES match with JDG, I mentioned that Knight is undefeated vs. Yagao. He has similarly never lost to Yuuki. I don't see that happening Thursday either.
Karsa - JNG ($7,400)
Another jungle-mid duo here to choose for your lineup Thursday morning. Karsa has the second-best KP% on the team, with 71.5%. I have two small problems with this combo. Number one is they are slightly more expensive than the BLG pair, and two their matchup is slightly less fantasy-friendly.
Looking Forward
With LPL and LCK overnight slates continuing through mid-April, we here at RotoBaller have got you covered. The League of Legends DFS action never stops. The LEC and LCS will start their playoffs this weekend, and EU Masters kicks off next week.
Check back throughout the week as we'll publish more ESports League of Legends advice, analysis, and DFS lineup picks. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
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