RADIO
Another day and another LOL slate to grind and analyze for you, our loyal RotoBaller readers. I'm always grateful to those who read and interact with the content, and I invite you to join me in the RotoBaller premium slack chat, where we are talking LOL 24/7 by signing up for a premium membership here.
Two game slates return for a few days, and this one is going to be pretty chalky. I am going to try to have some fun with it anyway and keep #teamonedaysoff rolling. A few more of my old flames turn up again today to test my resolve to leave my past feelings.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, July 7th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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5:00 AM: Vici Gaming (-305) vs. Rogue Warriors
Well, this matchup should have been on Monday because it's giving me apoplexy. On the one hand, I've got Vici gaming, who have decided to wait until I had given them up for dead to get their act together and begin playing like the smart, disciplined playoff-caliber team that they can be. On the other, there is the Rogue Warriors who I am still chasing for their first win. Unfortunately for me, they don't know how to close out games, but I firmly believe that eventually they will find themselves far enough ahead that they can't help but win a game. Now my twin kryptonites meet on Tuesday morning.
Statistically speaking, VG dominates this matchup as anyone does versus the side of RW. RW holds slim advantages in first blood percentage, and rift herald takes, but everything else goes over to the side of VG. History is on RW's side, but the only relevant match is the one from this spring, which RW won 2-1. Another small point on the side of RW is that VG plays Thursday again against FunPlus Phoenix. Vici have had three days to prep for this match, of which they likely took one well deserved day off after "upsetting" eStar. That left them with two to prep for RW, but knowing that FPX waits in the wings with just one day in between, you have to imagine they have looked ahead to that match and even looking past this last-placed RW squad.
This match seems like a fitting trap spot for the VG side, couple that with RW showing some recent form. They nearly beat OMG, took a game off JDG, and were ahead of EDG at fifteen minutes in that 2-0 loss. I'm going to stick with my hatred of VG and my as-yet unrequited love of RW; I mean, they can't lose every game, can they? Give me RW to catch VG off guard and win this one 2-1. On a two-game slate, you know what to do, though, play both sides. Vici is a much better team and may yet end up contending for playoffs.
Top RW Plays:
- Ruby - MID
- Haro - JNG
- Zwuji - ADC
- Ley - SUP
Top VG Plays:
- Zeka - MID
- Iboy - ADC
- Cube - TOP
- Hang - SUP
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7:00 AM: Suning (-195) vs. Estar
Another test of my ability to give up old biases is the fraudulent SNG who can't beat EDG when I need them too, but handle LGD when I don't want them to face Estar, who is now terrible. The schedule is against Estar here too, and they play this match on a quick turnaround, having just lost to V5 on Sunday morning and facing Invictus again on Friday. They are also on a four-game losing streak, but to me, this is a MUST win for them. If Estar is serious about being a playoff contender, they should realize that this is their next best chance for a win and all in on it.
Now how do they accomplish this feat? By doing what they do and getting up early, Estar has better early game numbers holding substantial leads in first blood and first turret. Their early dragon numbers and overall dragons are also better. They do fall behind in vision numbers and are not great at baron. Their overall poor play in the mid-game was very much on display against V5 they gave up the game in game one around the first rift herald, and flushed a 2k gold lead away at ten minutes with a very disjointed dragon fight. If they can improve that transition to mid games and not give away the early lead, they should be able to accumulate. How does SNG win you ask? They use SofM and his vision advantage to weather the early storm, and then close out cleanly with the baron. This -195 line interests me, and I want to see if it wavers at all. I view SNG as a paper tiger that beats up on the lower tier teams of the league. Unfortunately, Estar is now one of the middle-lower tier teams.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Swordart - SUP
- Haunfeng - ADC
- Angel - MID
Top ES Plays:
- Wei - JNG
- Fenfen - MID
- Wink - ADC
- ShiauC - SUP
Summary
- Just like yesterday on the two-game slates, it's going to be very important to try to track the ownership so that we can try to swerve it. Yesterday we saw the projected better matchup go well under on kills, and big stacks from the second set were set up for success.
- VG is likely to be the top scorers on the slate in a win, and they will likely be very popular, especially with RW coming off yet another big loss.
- Or you can join me and get wild play some underdogs and some sub-optimal lineups to see if we can find a top 5% lineup. Woof woof. Just don't ask me how that went yesterday 😉
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