RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Here at RotoBaller, we will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I am super excited that we LoL back in our lives, and I'm determined to offer the best free breakdowns that you'll find anywhere in the industry!
LPL's summer split is in full swing, and we've got a week yet until the LCK joins us in the early morn. Summer Season is here, and there are some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Shock Blast that pays 25k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, June 9th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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5:00 AM: FPX (-4000) vs. LNG
I know everyone is anxious to see what I'm thinking about the second game, but we're going to stick with the system and go in order. Besides, this won't take us long at all. We've got the third-place team from spring, the reigning world champs, and runners up at the Mid Season Cup (trumpets blare) FUN PLUS PHOENIX versus the likes of Li-Ning Gaming. LNG is now looking to contend for the unauspicious title of "worst team in the league," having fallen hard since the day of Snake Esports.
Looking at the odds for this one, it remains a David and Goliath story. FPX opened at -2000, and they currently sit at -4000. For those of you keeping score at home, that's an implied win percentage of 97.6%. There is no statistical category that LNG exceeds FPX in; they were close with their dragon % in the spring split, only about 7% lower than FPX. Now with Light in the bot lane instead of Asura, I don't know if that bot focus will continue.
So we're left with no real conceivable way that LNG wins this match or likely even a game. The 2% chance for them is if FPX lets the game go on forever, and LNG is abe to hyper-scale as we saw FPX do a few times in spring, but I don't see it here. I know I just spent a whole week telling all of you that no shot is too long on these two game slates, but -4000 when it's not Invictus Gaming or Weiyan isn't involved is too long. I won't have any LNG tonight, and neither should anyone with less than 150 entries.
Top FPX Plays:
- Khan - TOP
- Tian - JNG
- Doinb - MID
- Lwx - ADC
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7:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Top Esports (-650)
On to the main event - we've got Top esports on their first slate back from winning the inaugural Mid Season Cup versus Rogue Warriors. That isn't the exciting part; the starting lineups for each team are where the action starts. Jackeylove is sick, and former TES ADC and current TES support QiuQiu (pronounced CHO CHO) will be stepping back into the shoes he filled in 2018 as the starter.
Not to be outdone, RW is starting their newly acquired jungler, Youdang. Jackey has a stomach bug and needs rest - doctor's orders. So there should be no risk of a swap. QiuQiu last played ADC in the summer of 2018, before Knight joined the squad. He can play Varus, but with that being banned out constantly on patch 10.11 I wouldn't be surprised to see TES try a mage or two in the bot lane. We saw them attempt a Syndra bot for Jackeylove during the MSC, and that could be in the cards here as well. It didn't go well for Jackey, but it may be much more comfortable for QiuQiu.
This move is a huge loss for the team in terms of bot lane talent and shot calling. Jackey is one of the more aggressive players in the league, and he has been doing the shot-calling for TES since his arrival. You can tell they have been very decisive and aggressive since his addition to the squad. Youdang, the new guy for RW's side, has bounced around the league for a while, his most recent stint has been with EDG's youth squad. He previously played with Vici Gaming in 2019 and has some LPL level experience. He is a surprise start for them, and a major swap risk if they drop a game with Haro having had a resurgence in the spring split.
Now the million-dollar question is the loss of Jackey enough to push the side of RW over TES. No, it's not, but you also know I'm like a politician talking out of both sides of my mouth. Before the Jackey news, I was prepared to tell you to play some RW stacks in GPP. They took a game off TES in the spring, albeit versus the Photic led version of the squad, and RW is one of the mid-tier teams that are consistently able to punch up to their competition. With RW taking a game versus the Photic version of TES, I would rate the QiuQiu version to be worse than that, giving an increased chance for RW to take this match. I think the talent gap specifically in mid lane is sufficient that TES can, and should, still win this matchup.
My Rogue Warrior shares will probably be doubled since this morning. Also, the value presented by rostering QiuQiu is pretty insane. He's listed at his native position of support on both sites and will make rosters very interesting tonight. Lwx should be nearly 100% owned, but how many will try him in a captain spot with Zwuji ADC and QiuQiu support.
QiuQiu captain opens up every possibility under the sun, and the only problem with either option is it forces you to choose between Knight and Doinb. This match will likely be the bloodier of the two tonight, especially given the uncertainty on the bottom half of the map. So again I like TES to get it done here still due to their superior talent level across the rest of the map, but the amount of RW and specifically Zwuji I'm going to play is on the rise.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- QiuQiu - SUP (he's listed as SUP by the sites, but will play ADC)
- 369 - TOP
Top RW Plays:
- Zwuji - ADC
- Ley - SUP
- Youdang - JNG (he carries a very high risk of getting subbed)
- Crazy - Top
Summary
- Roster construction will be fun tonight, and with how close I think this second series ends up having a one-off player from a losing team could be a way to get different on DK.
- The TES/RW match will be the bloodier of the two today, and I will build more full stacks from this game and picking up ancillary pieces from the first set.
- There has been substantial line movement today with the TES news. TES started as -850 favorites, and that has slipped to -600 already, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go further before game time.
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Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!
Did you read a RotoBaller article and win too? Send us your screenshots on Twitter @RotoBaller and we'll add it to our winners Hall Of Fame!
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