RADIO
DMO came out yesterday and laid a beating on the side of EDG, but a lot of that pain was self-inflicted from EDG. Any amateur analyst can tell you it's silly to let the Aphelios go through the draft phase in game two, but we have seen several teams around the world lay down the blueprint to beating that champion. EDG played with a lack of awareness that allowed DMO's ADC Xubin to shred them on the pickup.
Sad times indeed, but due to the wild nature of those games, EDG still scored very well, allowing some EDG/FPX lineups to make it across the cash line thanks also in part to the super low ownership on DMO across the board. The LPL never rests, and neither do I, so here I go again on #Teamnodaysoff!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, June 30th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
5:00 AM: LNG (-160) vs. BLG
Well, this is undoubtedly a gross matchup. We have seen both teams struggle for most of the split, and it's time for my bi-weekly reminder that “No Meteor = No Love.” We've got our fourteenth and fifteenth place teams in action, and the only claim to fame we've got here are the two big upset wins from LNG.
Looking into our stats, we do see that this LNG squad is a bit better early. They have a better gold differential at 15 minutes, along with better first blood percentage. BLG counter with the better first turret percentage, which is odd since LNG also has a comfortable lead in rift herald percentage. Even in their latest two losses, we could see the LNG side ahead early against both VG and OMG. Not our top tier teams, but teams that are better than BLG (without Meteor). LNG took this matchup 2-1 in the spring split, and that was with my main man Meteor in the squad.
So the question will be can LNG maintain the early lead they should have in this one, or blunder it away as they have in the past few matches. Even if they do blunder it away as they have previously, there is nothing to say that BLG can't hand it right back to them on a silver platter. BLG has been bad with 13est16 in the lineup instead of Meteor, and they have lost draft capital due to a lack of flexibility. 13est has only played four champions on his return to the LPL through 11 games played.
His most played is Trundle, which has a 45% win rate globally on the current patch in pro play. This move is detrimental to the team, speaking to the coaching staff's deficiencies that they chose to go with Fofo over Meteor. I like LNG to win here likely in a 2-1, but I think its fine to take some shots on BLG even though I don't like them. This could end up very similar to the VG/LNG series from Sunday morning, where neither team scores very well, and taking the underdog helps your budget for the next series.
Late news that Meteor will indeed be playing instead of 13east16. I think this will swing a ton of ownership back to the side of BLG, but I'll be looking to fade that as it will be the first night back with the squad. There could be lingering issues from his absence and the drama surrounding it.
Top LNG Plays:
- Light - ADC
- Xx - JNG
- Chenlun17 - TOP (HIGH RISK sub possible)
- LNG Team
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7:00 AM: Royal Never Give Up (-130) vs. Team WE
RNG has owned this matchup in the Beishang era and stand 3-0 series and a perfect 6-0 game score versus the stud jungler and this WE squad. The most current match played in the spring WE did start Plex in the mid lane instead of Teacherma. This set is another close series that will likely end in a 2-1 either way it goes. RNG hold slight advantages in rift heralds, first blood %, gold differential at 15 minutes, barons, and a significant vision advantage. WE lead slightly in dragons, first turrets, gold generation, and have a large advantage in damage output.
Royal has beaten Estar twice this year, who plays a similar style to that of WE, but they recently lost to V5, who have also adopted a roaming style of play this split. WE lost to Suning, who has a similar structure to that of RNG. So we're close on stats and opponents of the same style.
WE have advantages in the TOP lane and SUP, which is challenging because Ming has been an all-star caliber player for his entire LPL career. Beishang is more talented as a carry, but XLB is the better supportive jungler. Betty is more flexible than is Juimeng and equal in the carry department. It will come down to, as it so often does for WE, Teacherma’s ability to survive the laning phase against the enemy mid.
We just got the news; it will be Cryin facing teacherma in the mid, not Xiaohu. The right answer here will be to take a wait and see approach. Initially, I liked RNG in the matchup, and this news doesn't sway me much. I still like them to win, but I will likely split my exposure as this should be the more active set. I will also watch this betting line closely to see what the public thinks of the move, and guage my response accordingly.
Top RNG Plays:
- Cryin - MID
- XLB - JNG
- Betty - ADC
- Ming - SUP
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG
- Juimeng - ADC
- Missing - SUP
- Teacherma - MID
Summary
- The second set will be the more fantasy-friendly of the two matches. Anytime WE is involved on a slate, their match will likely be one of the better options.
- Last night once again proved that no matter the chalk of the chalk, anything can happen. So whether you're buying into the chalk, or playing opposite, think how you can be different while being the same. A full four-man DMO stack carried the day yesterday; even in my DMO lineups, I went with small stacks and didn't commit.
- With the lineup news breaking as I put the finishing touches on my write up I'll be watching for any clues as the public's reactions to the news.
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