RADIO
FPX News broke late about BO being suspended for possible match-fixing in the LDL with his team Estar Youth last year. That news made the Tian start more of an emergency stop-gap than something the organization had planned all along. If I had been more diligent, I could have connected the dots there and played more WE—Mea maxima culpa; that's something I should have caught sooner and connected. My account balance suffered too, and I'm sorry.
Two massive favs today with both undefeated EDG and 3-3 TES taking the stage. LNG sits at 4-3 with a better record, and a higher seeding than TES yet comes in as +285 underdogs to last year's summer split champions. TES has underperformed this split, but we'll see if they can get back on track with the dub.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: BLG (+300) vs. EDG (-475)
EDG is undefeated in the year of our lord 2021, and everything is right with the world. Yes, 2016 comes again with a big-budget Korean import adc leading EDG to an undefeated regular season. New Deft, I mean Viper, isn't the only free agent ADC on the scene as BLG's Aiming will lead his team into this showdown looking to improve their playoff seeding. EDG can't go undefeated, but will it be BLG that takes them down. Let's take a look.
Early game has been BLG's strength this split; they have been able to get some leads over teams like JDG and RNG. They have held on to a few of those early leads, but in true inconsistent BLG fashion, they also lost to OMG 2-1 in their last match before the break. EDG's late-game decision-making and team fighting have been their strength, but they are no slouch in the early game either. As good as BLG have been early, EDG has the edge in every early stat, rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, first drake, first blood, and GD@15. EDG also has the advantage late with better monster objective control in total drakes and baron percentage. The vision numbers between the teams are relatively equal.
EDG has successfully added their new top-laner and ADC with little if any hiccups. BLG, by comparison, has struggled mightily with their offseason acquisitions. The two teams are near mirror images of one another, which is an interesting parallel to the origins of BLG. BLG acquired the LPL slot of Imay for the 2018 season, the same Imay that was once EDG's sister team Edward Esports. The one thing BLG lacks is veteran support to tie everything together. That's what they thought they were getting in Mark, but he has struggled as the team has this split. Meiko continues to play at a very high level while directing the group around the map. His role as the shot caller for the team frees Viper and Scout up to do what they do.
BLG can surprise EDG here if Meteor can get ahead of Jiejie and press his advantage into his lanes. With 11.3 just starting to shake out in China, we should see the jungle meta shift to more supportive champions. BLG could bring the entire game down to a few button presses during big team fights around late-game objectives, and if they do so on even footing, they can win. Much the same way they took down RNG in their series. The trouble is with EDG's early game advantages and laning prowess, and they should be the ones with priority on those objectives forcing BLG to fight on their terms.
With Meiko's high-level shot-calling leading the way, I like EDG here. EDG will have surprising upside here, with BLG averaging 18 deaths in their losses. EDG themselves are under 16 kills in their wins and have been playing clean league of legends. I usually find that the deaths per loss stat correlates better to fantasy success. If BLG would pull out the upset in this one, EDG gives over 17.5 deaths in their losses. Billibilli could score well, but it is a small sample size on the EDG losses so beware.
Top EDG Plays:
- Viper - ADC - 37.7% kill share, and second on the team in KP%
- Meiko - SUP - leads the team in KP%, and if I could get one Xayah Rakan game from the bot duo, I think I would die.
- Scout - MID - third in KP% and second in KS%.
- Jiejie - JNG - 62% KP and 16% KS aren't great, but I think the matchup upside gives him the edge here.
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6:00 AM: TES (-450) vs. LNG (+285)
Top Esports have had a light schedule with only six games through five weeks of LPL action. That could explain some of their inconsistency as they currently sit at 3-3 outside of the playoffs. Losses to SNG and Rogue Warriors are head-scratchers, and they got spanked by FPX in their last match heading into the break. LNG has tumbled a bit after their win over IG, which made people sit up and take notice of this squad. Now they will have a similar high-profile match to kick off their second-half playoff push.
TES has struggled in the late game primarily due to a lack of structure to their play style. They often just look to fight and outplay their opponents rather than setting up properly around objectives. Their vision numbers and jungle control percentages indicate this lack of planning and improper setups. LNG has the edge in both of those areas. TES has the early advantage in GD@15, first blood, rift herald, first drake, and first three turrets. TES also has the edge in total drakes and baron numbers. TES has the statistical advantage, but they're going to need to play under control to bring those stats to bear.
One of TES's other problems this split has been 369; he's rolled way more threes than nines. LNG could mitigate his woes a bit by flip-flopping tops. Both of the junglers favor more supportive picks like Gragas, Jarvan, or Sedjuani, who could all be on the table. Mid lane should be closer than most think as we've seen Icon recover some of his past form. Bot lane will be tight with Light and Lwandy playing so well right now, especially Lwandy on Alistar. Zhou and JKL look like twins sometimes, with their overaggressions bringing the team in too deep at times. I'd love to see Knight play some Azir, Orianna, or even Ryze, something that has a more significant impact in the team fights to turn them with one critical ultimate. Less of the single target damage of the Syndra and more team impact as TES often devolves into a team fighting mess late in games.
All in all, I think with the time off to work on their shortcomings and now matches coming fast and furious, we should see TES snap out of their funk and begin to climb back to their rightful spot at the top of the table. It all starts here with a win over LNG, and I think it's a sweep for the favorites. TES average 21 kills in their victories so far, but LNG only gives up 16 deaths in their losses, limiting TES's upside. Given that Top also only averages 2.0 assists per kill, I think we're better served with small stacks.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC - Leads the team in KP% at 73 and KS% with 37.
- Zhou - SUP - second in KP% with 63.
- Knight - MID - 62% and 24% for the kill metrics. You can see the drop-off after JKL.
- Karsa - JNG - 60% and 19%, but I think Karsa will benefit from the jungle shift.
Summary
- TLDR: EDG 2-0, TES 2-0, after yesterday again, I don't think I need to remind anyone that living the hedge life is the way to play these two-game slates. Even if you're at dollar stakes, drop down to the quarter arcade and enter a few lineups with each of the dogs in case the main lineup tanks you've still got something left to sweat.
- BLG can win if they keep even in the mid-game and reduce the series to who pushes the buttons better. EDG is just likely not to allow that to happen. TES is precisely the opposite as they have every opportunity to win before button pressing but often choose to take things to that point as they feel they are just better at it than you are. So if TES hasn't shored up their macro issues, LNG is live, and even if they have a bit, the talent is not lacking on LNG.
- I'm off till Friday, and @hofferkid will be joining us tomorrow to take care of Wednesday's LPL slate and the first four-game slate on Thursday. I'll be back in time for the big weekend slates and will be hungry to get a piece of some of those giant prize pools DK is throwing our way.
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