RADIO
After a VERY long week of guessing at LCK lineups and braving swaps left and right, the LPL returns. We'll have LPL two-game slates Monday through Wednesday, with the LCK joining back up for four-games Thursday and Friday. Saturdays and Sundays will be the crown jewel of overnight League of Legends for two weeks yet. The LPL has scheduled three games each of those days as part of their spring spectacular lunar new year celebration.
The LCK has passed the halfway point of their spring split, and the LPL will this week. The playoff push is on, and we've got three of our top five teams in action in China today. SNG faces JDG in a World's quarterfinal rematch, and FPX gets WE in the late game. WE and JDG both have home stadiums, and so the late match should start on time regardless of how long the first match takes, yet another of the LPL's advantages over the LCK.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Monday, February 22nd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Suning (+130) vs. JDG(-180)
This World's quarterfinal rematch loses some of its luster, with SNG flailing a bit this split. What we would have called a top-five matchup in the off-season is now fifth versus twelfth. Suning went one up and one down in week five, thumping LGD and turn, getting thumped by the likes of undefeated EDG. JDG have swept three matches in a row since themselves losing to EDG. Of those three, only RW was a given, with WE and Rare Atoms' sweeps being good showings of JDG's strength. LPL is back; baby, let's jump in.
This match should be a close one. JDG has struggled early in games, and it shows SNG hasn't been great either, but they have the edge in first blood and first drake. JDG with Zoom in the top lane predictably have a better rift herald rate and translate that into the advantage of first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Mid to late-game JDG have better drake numbers, but SNG holds the edge in baron percentage and vision numbers. Statistically speaking, it's hard to pick the winner just from these numbers. I'll give JDG a slight lead through the team stats.
11.3 will meet the LPL today, and the jungle changes will be interesting. The nerfs to goredrinker hurt Kanavi more so than SofM, who is known for his diverse champion pool and creative build paths. Based on the other three major leagues, Nidalee has been a potent jungle pick, and it is among Kanavi's top three champs. I think the jungle matchup will be closer to even with 11.3 in effect, and the top lane matchup will be tight as well. Bin might be the flashier player, and he has slightly better kill numbers, but Zoom is the total package. His wave management, ability to play both strong or weak sides, teleport timings, and ability to control team fights make him possibly the best or second best top in the league and, therefore, the world. Angel and Yagao are the forgotten heroes of both these teams, and over the past year, I'd favor Angel slightly in this matchup unless Yagao gets his hands on Zoey. The bot lane matchup is another close one for the adcs, but we have to look at the duo. While the adcs fight over the Kaisa pick, JDG will have the flexibility to put LvMao on any number of support picks. JDG has the player edge slightly as well.
Outside of the World's quarterfinal loss, JDG hasn't lost a series to either SNG or a SofM led team since 2018. I don't think they lose this one either. We saw SNG give up ALL the drakes to EDG in that loss, and with JDG having the better drake rate, I believe they'll be able to secure the soul for late game team fight. Team fighting, as you recall, is always JDG's strength; with LvMao calling the shots and Zoom controlling spacing and engages, they should have the advantage today too. I like JDG here, even though SNG has the first pick in draft via the blue side. The blue side win rate in LPL is the lowest of the four major regions, I believe, due to the teams' quality and the skill check nature of the region.
That's why we play the games has been a frequent statement lately, with favorites dropping left and right, and this is no different. If SNG spent the break working on their objective setups and priority, they could give their vision advantage better, more utility, and beat JDG to the punch around drakes and barons. Fighting on their terms would help immensely, and SNG has an upside if they upset. JDG's fighting is both a blessing and a curse as they average 19 deaths in their losses. So I like the numbers on SNG, and if they win, they have the potential to score very well. I still prefer the side of JDG, but I think SNG's slow playstyle limits JDG's upside. I'll take JDG 2-1 here and look for my big stacks from the second series.
Top JDG Plays:
- Zoom - TOP - Nuguri, Nuguri, Nuguri, yeah, but Zoom still has better KP% and KS%.
- Kanavi - JNG - third on the team in KP% but second in KS%.
- LvMao - SUP - second in KP%, and the shot caller for the team he will be where the action is.
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6:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-750) vs. Team We (+425)
FPX hasn't dropped a single game in the LPL outside of their 2-1 loss to EDG in week two. That's six straight sweep, including wins over IG, SNG, LNG, and TES. The 2019 World champs are impressive, and outside of EDG, they are looking like the team to beat. Team WE started the split hot with five straight series wins, but they have dropped their last three sets going into the break. Now they have to contend with FPX in this top-five matchup. Does the dog have a shot? Let's take a look.
Firstly let's talk about how strong FPX look. FunPlus are the number one team in the LPL in gold per minute, over 150 ahead of WE, who are in sixth place. They are also the top farming team in the league, and they are actionable, with all this wealth outputting the most damage per minute. Per Oracle's Elixir WE and FPX are the second and third best teams in early game rating. Even then, FPX has the advantage in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. WE has the edge in first drakes, but FPX recovers quickly to take the lead in total drakes and baron percentage. WE have a slight lead in vision numbers, but overall the stats go to FPX.
WE do have a couple of things going for them. Swapping mid-laners heading into break accelerated some of WE's problems, and Shanks emergencies are over, so he is back with the team. Swapping hurts a team's consistency no matter how good the players in question are. This maxim leads me to my next point in favor of WE, Tian returns to action tonight, and Bo heads to the bench. Bo has been excellent, and Tian hasn't been at his World title form for quite some time. Tian's questionable condition will be a double whammy for FPX, costing them consistency and talent. Beishang is the MVP of Team WE, which will help him get the ball rolling for his squad. The bot duo still has been the main issue for WE, with Missing and Juimeng leading the team in death percentage. That's to be expected from the support, but the adc, YIKES. We're talking about Jackeylove levels of deaths without the JKL level of hard carrying to balance it out.
Even with the swap at jungle, I see FPX taking this win 2-0. I can't get over the bot duo's advantage in team fights or the way Nuguri can influence the map with little or no attention from his jungler. Plus, we could get Doinb on Seraphine. Sign me up, and now at no additional cost, WE averages 19 deaths in their losses. This deal gets better and better.
On the other hand, if you want to get wild on a two-gamer, FPX has averaged 21 deaths in their two lost games this split, and WE's strength in the jungle will represent FPX's weakness. You can likely get WE stacks at sub-ten percent ownership if you're a bold one. For my money, though, I'll stick with FunPlus to sweep.
Top FPX Plays:
- LWX - ADC - top two KP% and leads the team in KS%.
- Crisp - SUP - leader in KP% up against the leading death percentage support in the league.
- Tian - JNG - while he doesn't have Bo's carry numbers, he's not far off, and I remember his last game before break a 6-3-13 masterpiece on his signature Lee Sin.
- Doinb - MID - mid scoring has been suppressed this split, and even the best are falling prey.
Summary
- TLDR: JDG 2-1, FPX 2-0. Two gamers make anything possible, and both dogs could score very well if they pull it off. SNG is more likely to steal a game or the series. By far, WE will be the biggest leverage play on the slate if you're a bold one or have a disposable bankroll.
- I want to go as heavy on FPX as I can with SNG's slow playstyle; they should suppress fantasy scoring in the first matchup. Unless JDG are behind, in which case they will have to fight their way back into the game.
- LPL returns, so we have no guessing about lineups, and even in series, swaps are not a high risk. We could see Bo if FPX gets drilled in game one, but I find it unlikely. DraftKings currently has a big red O for out next to Tian, which could help if it stays there all day. Fingers crossed, I mean FanDuel has him as doubtful and priced a thousand dollars less than Bo, so anything is possible as the sites don't care about esports.
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