RADIO
Billibilli damm Gaming, as one of the preeminent BLG fans anywhere, I was happy to see my boys draft some carries for Aiming and let him do his thing. I only had one BLG lineup, which was on Fanduel, so I'll let you know how that did tomorrow. So while I'm ecstatic about BLG taking down RNG, I'm more than a little miffed it was on a day I didn't have a lot of exposure. Oh, and SNG won; they were in cruise control, looking like they wouldn't need more than 12 kills or 24 minutes to close out LGD in game two. Pedal to the medal the last five minutes, and SNG stacks were sitting pretty.
It seems like all of our two-game LPL slates have had a similar setup with a couple of big favorites, and today is no different. We hadn't seen a fav fall since the TES loss to RW until BLG pulled the rug out from under RNG. WE and EDG will look to get that streak back on track today. Let's jump in!
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Rare Atom (+225) vs. Team WE (-315)
Rare Atom held serve versus RW on Sunday, but the level of competition jumps up today. WE will be looking to rebound after an embarrassing sweep to RNG; okay, losing to another top team may have only been embarrassing to me, who picked them to win. Can WE right the ship, or will Rare Atom pull off a big upset?
Not overreacting is a critical element of all dfs, and lol dfs is no different. Just because someone or some team looked terrific last time out doesn't necessarily mean that they are the play today. The opposite is also true, and I think this is a spot to prove that out. WE were looking like juggernauts until RNG unseated them, and RA looked done after consecutive 0-2s before sweeping RW. So I'm not overreacting to the WE loss or the RW win. Teams are evolving all the time, and the WE that lost Friday is not the WE that will play today, right, Matty?
Today's WE should enjoy a slight edge in the early game, but the teams have a precisely equal GD@15 with 474 each. Heralds are also identical, but Rare Atom holds a considerable lead in the first turret percentage, but WE have a similar edge in the first three turrets. First drake, total drakes, and baron rates are all in favor of Team WE. Vision score is on the RA side, as are CSM and DPM; those last two were quite a surprise to me. In this instance, I like WE's priority on dragon more than RA's rift herald and first turret rate. That's typically the cross-map trade that teams make, and judging by the gold differential and first three turrets stats, RA won't be able to gain enough from a rift herald play to offset the dragon stacking of WE.
I bang on Leyan repeatedly, but statistically, he's keeping pace with Beishang in his small sample size. Leyan matches the all-pro in farm and KP% while being ahead in kill share, DPM, and vision. I am shocked by that and more than a little distressed. Beishang's most played this year, and last is Graves. He is 3-1 on the champ this split, but the overall win rate is only 28% inside the LPL. Leyan has played more of the current meta champs like Pantheon, which further helps his cause. In the bot lane, I like Juimeng and Missing over Iboy and Hang. Juimeng is 7-0 on Kaisa this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a ban come out or for RA to first pick the champ for Iboy. These two matchups will shape this contest, and I think WE have the edge in both. Leyan's stats look very good but buffed by the tremendous leads he got versus RW.
I think you can make a case for a Rare Atom upside with some good drafts aided by the blue side first pick advantage. Overall the objective control for WE and their focus on getting their bot lane ahead will lead to the win. Now we find out the Yimeng is starting in the mid lane instead of Shanks. He doesn't necessarily represent a downgrade at the position, but I'm never a fan of messing with a roster's consistency. Yimeng's champion pool isn't substantially different from Shanks, but he does have more Gallio, Twisted Fate, Karma, and Sett.
I think we see WE playing a bit more like last year's team getting their mid laner on the move, and more often than not, that move will be to the bot lane to get them ahead. They could also be more fantasy-friendly as they were last summer. This move is an interesting wrinkle for a seemingly straight forward slate. I think this betting line will move more to RA off the news, giving them some implied value on both sites. I believe mid laners are currently more like running backs in that they don't matter. I'll still take WE here for the win, but I'm also more likely to hedge the spot because I'm not too fond of inconsistency.
Top WE Plays:
- Juimeng - ADC - even if I'm wrong about the roams, he still leads KP% and KS%.
- Missing - SUP - along for the ride.
- Beishang - JNG - its BAE, come on.
- Yimeng - MID - Teacherma was third on the team in KP% last summer, playing a similar roaming style. I could be waaay off here, but I believe this is the intention of the move.
Top RA Plays:
- Fofo - MID - if I'm wrong and mid laners do matter, this will likely be a great play. Worth the hedge IMO.
- Leyan - JNG - leads the team in kill share.
- Iboy - ADC - all attention looks to be coming to the bottom half of the map.
- Hang - SUP - I have to apologize to Hang and his supporters. He's played well this split, and he'll be in the middle of the action today.
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6:00 AM: Victory 5 (+300) vs. Edward Gaming (-475)
V5 nearly got me my RNG upset, then managed to let TT sweep them. That's what roster swapping will get you, or so I say. EDG hasn't played in over a week, but they will grace us with their presence twice this week. Will they continue their undefeated run, or can V5 get back to their upset-minded ways.
V5 on the slate, and they are trying another lineup combo. V5 will also be trying to secure another early rift herald, and they lead EDG 70% to 46% in herald takes. Their first turret rate is similarly impressive at 75% to EDG's 58%. Those stats explain what V5 is all about, and if they don't succeed at that early snowball, they can be in big trouble, as we saw versus RNG. EDG has the advantage in drakes, barons, and vision numbers. Statistically speaking, I think EDG are close enough early and better late that V5 won't be able to get that snowball rolling.
However, we do have a spot where we could see EDG behind early and looking to get back into the game. That's been a profitable spot for dfs thus far this year. V5 are averaging over 18 deaths per loss, and we saw them give up 20 plus in three of their last four losses. V5 could pressure EDG with their early towers and gold leads. We did see them steamroll RNG in the second game of that series, so they are not without hope. EDG has SNG on the horizon, and they may be looking ahead. I wouldn't say I like it, but I think there are reasons we could see the only remaining undefeated falling here.
Top EDG Plays:
- Viper - ADC - MVP caliber performance thus far.
- Meiko - SUP - so good on this current support meta.
- Jiejie - JNG - just behind Scout in KP% and Flandre in KS%
- Scout - MID - I think you all know I love this guy already.
Summary
- TLDR: WE 2-1, EDG 2-1. Some lineup upheaval puts some upsets on the map, and I don't mind RA with this news. V5 can pull a fast one if EDG are looking ahead or haven't seen the game film from the RNG series.
- I think the first set is suddenly more spicy, but I love how V5 goes flying into fights headfirst. They are currently fourth in the league in CKM, a metric I use for pace. EDG, though, is second to last, and that hurts.
- The slate is still 17 hours from lock, and it's already been turned on its head. I'm glad I procrastinated long enough for that roster news to drop. Terrible writing process for the win! Still not long enough for FanDuel to update last night's contests, though. Pure comedy.
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