RADIO
We are back and better than ever! Not hardly two weeks removed from the preseason cups, and we leap into the regular season of the LPL. January 9th is the earliest start date we've ever had, and that means we'll see an entire month of contests before the Lunar New Year break. Typically, it has only been a week or two of games before the break, which has led to teams taking these matches not very seriously. I suspect that will not be the case this year. Teams will want to hit the ground running.
LCK will have the earliest start date in their history this year and join us overnight on January 13th. While the LPL will be two games every day of the week, the LCK will have two games five nights a week. So without the truncated schedules due to covid that we saw last year, things should settle into a nice rhythm. LPL alone on Monday and Tuesday AM for two-game slates, and LPL/LCK four-gamers for the rest of the week. I miss the old LPL schedule with three games stacked up on Saturdays and Sundays, but they don't put much stock into what I have to say when scheduling.
The esports team here at Rotoballer is committed to joining you every step of the way through the upcoming season. We're looking at adding some new features for you all to enjoy, but until we get those up and running, you'll have your old faithful story-telling grandpa here for daily research and recommendations. Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, January 9th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Top Esports (-600) vs. Suning Gaming (+370)
Coming off a tumultuous off-season, SNG is thrust directly into the fire against the summer champs, the Demacia Cup champs, and the presumptive favorites for 2021 Top Esports. TES is fresh off a speed run to the Demacia Cup title that saw them drop only a single game on their way to the cup. Let's take a closer look at these teams' changes heading into 2021 and see how they match up in this inaugural showdown of the Spring split.
TES faltered at World's and has changed very little in the way they do business. Karsa looks to make early ganks to get his powerhouse lanes and himself ahead in kills and gold. His growing synergy with Knight is a HUGE problem for the rest of the league, and likely the world. The addition of Zhou at support is already looking like a plus for this squad. The former Team WE trainee has shown he is a match for this team's other ridiculous talents. Support play was one of the question marks for this team coming into the season, and they seem to have that shored up.
Suning after their incredible World's run has had a bummer of an off-season. I ordered a Suning Jersey, and immediately after that, the curse began to work its magic. They lost Swordart to TSM, which in my humble opinion makes TSM an instant contender for the LCS title, but that's neither here nor there. There were rumblings of SofM going to FPX, but thankfully he did re-sign with the team. Huanfeng was busted for cheating (dramatic pause) on his girlfriend during Worlds. Yet another ringing endorsement for #TeamSex, but HF now faces a suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. He will miss a month and was replaced by JinJao at the Demacia Cup. I don't know how much time he will miss in the regular split, but it's safe to say we're all a bit down on SNG entering the season. Just as I finish writing this, I find out SNG has been sold to Weibo (Chinese Twitter), so they may also have a new name by Saturday morning.
With all the controversy swirling about SNG, it's hard to see anything but a TES sweep here. TES will be the biggest fav on the slate and the highest owned by a wide margin. We would be remiss to omit the fact that SNG was able to unseat TES at World's just a few months ago due to SofM's relentless jungle pressure. It's only a two-game slate, so I'm never opposed to throwing out a few weird lineups. TES is a clear choice here, but if you're looking for sub 10% ownership, SNG is your path.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC - Led the team in KP% and KS% at Demacia
- Knight - MID - Human highlight reel second in KP and KS.
- Karsa - JNG - The engine that drives the team third in both metrics.
- Zhou - SUP - worse numbers than 369, but a beneficial matchup
- 369 - TOP - better numbers than Zhou, but a worse matchup
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6:00 AM: Edward Gaming (-575) vs. OMG (+350)
EDG has ever been one of my favorite LPL teams as they were always at the top when I started watching. OMG is another team I've had a soft spot for, but with the retirement of Xiyang and the departure of Icon, they have lost some luster. These squads seem to be moving in opposite directions heading into season 11. Let's take a look at the moves both teams made in the downtime quickly before we preview the matchup.
Edward Gaming added Flandre from LNG, Viper from HLE, and Clearlove returns to the team from a year of coaching. The team retained Meiko, Hope, Jiejie, Xiaoxiang and added former T1 Trainee Gori to the roster. Viper's addition is a pretty big deal, but Hope was excellent to close out the split. EDG closed out summer in incredible fashion, and they were a team I was higher on coming into spring split. I think a lot of the positivity at the close of summer was due to them finally fielding a steady roster. I'm worried about that cohesion now with all the additions to the roster, no matter how big the names are.
OMG completely remade themselves in the off-season. Long-time front man Icon has left for LNG, and we're left with a squad that most people haven't seen much from outside of the bot lane duo Eric and Cold. New joined from RNG, Aki from TES, Wuming from RW, Bafang, and Bright from the academy roster. OMG is an underwhelming squad, and they have moved back to Shanghai from Chengdu, so they've lost their home-field advantage as well. We saw them succeed in the Demacia Cup, going 3-1 featuring an impressive comeback win over FPX.
EDG has the edge in talent for sure, but we might see them suffer here from a lack of continuity. Scout and Viper were unable to attend the Demacia Cup after returning from Korea, and I'm unsure where the club is regarding Clearlove. He is one of the only legacy players left from the early days of LPL and had success with the squad in 2019. None of this bothers me throughout the season, but OMG will have the edge in consistency in the opener. Viper will need some time to adjust to the pace the LPL plays at, and the team itself will have to adapt to the new players.
We have a two-game slate with an obvious favorite in the first game, and so many people will play OMG specifically to jam in Top Esports plays at captain. EDG has the edge in talent, but I think OMG has a legit chance at winning here. Stick with EDG for cash games and single entry gpp, but I like some OMG to start the season well. I'll start the split with an upset special OMG 2-1 over a superior EDG squad that will need some time to get its pieces together.
AUTHORS NOTE: I've had this written up for a few days now and was waiting on starters to drop before sending this article to print. EDG will start Flandre Jiejie Scout Viper and Meiko. This news increases my confidence in them drastically and lowers their sub risk. I still think that OMG is in play, but with the pricing errors on both sites and the starters named, I will have less of them now than I would have if Clearlove or Hope started. This betting line has also moved significantly since opening to EDG's favor making them nearly as big a favorite as Top Esports.
Top EDG Plays:
- Jiejie - JNG - Led the team in KP% at Demacia
- Meiko - SUP - Plays better when moving forward; Alistar is back
- Flandre - TOP - Hard carry top laner first in KP% in 2020 Summer
- Viper - ADC - Priced wrong on both sites, he will make a good addition to any stack.
Top OMG Plays:
- AKi - JNG - 10.8 KDA during Demacia
- Cold - SUP - Led the team in KP% during Demacia
- Eric - ADC - Nearly 40% KS% at Demacia
Summary
- TLDR: TES 2-0, OMG 2-1, Official predictions. There will be ownership on both sides of the second matchup with a two-gamer to open the season. TES will be the highest owned team on every slate they play, likely approaching 60% or better. EDG will be next slightly ahead of OMG 30-25%, and poor SNG how soon we forget should clock in under 10%.
- Dodging the chalk on these two game slates is often tricky. Although I do like OMG for an upset in the second match of the day, the best path is usually playing a different variant of the favs. Think about taking your captain from your smaller stack or taking the team as part of your full-stack. Either of those will result in a more unique lineup that is constructed of both favorites.
- Draftkings and Fanduel have helped us out with that by not paying a lick of attention to the offseason. They have priced down Viper, Flandre, Jiejie, Karsa, and Zhou on DK, allowing some powerful MID/ADC captain builds. FD has some messed up pricing, including Zhou as the cheapest support on the slate at 6.1k. He should be nearly 100% owned as it allows you to do anything you want.
- I can't believe we're back already, but at the same time, I'm chomping at the bit to see more LoL in my DK lobbies. I'm so excited for this season and can't wait to have you all along for the ride!
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