RADIO
If you follow me on Twitter, you already know, but I'm steaming. Game one showed what BLG could be. Mark is coming downhill on a tanky engage champion, Meteor out farming the enemy carries (yes, both of them), Zeka roaming the map, and I couldn't have been prouder. Then game two happened; ok, I said they were limit testing. No problem, we'll get em in round three. Nope.
Well, it was a rough slate that started as terribly as it finished with game one of OMG/Estar being a complete shit show. OMG's lead wasn't enough for them to finish cleanly, and as a result, way too many fights happened, and OMG was on their way to breaking the slate until they nosedived in games two and three. Several eStar members outscored the sweep bonus in game one, so it instantly turned the slate on its head. Tonight promises to be less tilting in some ways, but with some big chalk on board, it could be just as bad.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Tuesday, January 19th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Rogue Warriors (+385) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-650)
I think I've pinned down exactly what RW are as a team; a more shit IG. When RW should perform well, they stink, and when they have no business winning, they upend TES. FPX will be looking to rebound after a hard-fought loss to EDG on Saturday. RW were the upset darlings all last split, and they have made a good start on reclaiming that title this split too. The main problem with that is I think it often has more to do with the other team taking them for granted and taking advantage.
For RW to upset here, what we're looking for is FPX to disappoint two times in a row, and I don't see it. FPX faces Suning in another match of the week on Saturday, but they have plenty of time to prep for that and have had two days to get ready for RW. We're only looking at a seven-game sample size, but for a team with such an impressive win under their belts, RW has low underlying stats. Even in an area, you'd expect them to be better, such as jungle control, they sit at a woeful 44%.
Haro could go even in the jungle here in terms of talent, but with his lanes crumbling around him, I doubt he'll have many success avenues. FPX has had some sketchy drafts, but with Doinb on board, I'll never rate my knowledge of what works for them over his if he's on about predator Rumble again, then so be it. I doubt the draft makes a difference here. I would have told you the same thing versus TES for RW, and I likely did.
The difference is I doubt we get two disappointments (not that losing to EDG is embarrassing or anything) from FPX in a row. I also think that FPX is a smarter team than is TES, plus they have revenge on their mind as they lost to RW last summer. If Doinb remembers ult and flash timers during team fights, I'm confident he remembers that loss. Those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it as it were, but that's not the case here. Give me FPX for the 2-0.
Top FPX Plays:
- Lwx - ADC - Leads team in kill share with a ridiculous 43%, although I fear that corrects itself.
- Crisp - SUP - second on the team in KP% good pairing with LWX.
- Tian - JNG - feels odd to rank him slightly over Doinb, but I need to light a fire under the mid laner, and this should do it.
- Doinb - MID - Cedeing kill share to LWX, and by listing him last, I'm hoping to reverse that trend. The ole reverse curse, you see.
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6:00 AM: Edward Gaming (-700) vs. LGD (+400)
EDG is fresh off a big win over FPX, which means they are due for a letdown. A loss to this LGD squad still without their starting ADC and team leader Kramer would be entirely in keeping with ancient EDG traditions dating back as far as time immemorial. LGD put together a decent game one to sink the V5 chalk on Saturday, and they are thrust right back into the mix versus another top tier team today. This line is already moving in favor of EDG, and it will be interesting to see where that goes during the day.
V5 toyed with this LGD lineup that sorely needs Kramer to clear quarantine, but the squad announced that Garvey would continue in the ADC role through this match at least. The upside is they drafted well and did their best to play to those comps. I'll try to remember that maybe we can take them for some upsets when Kramer returns. The squad has some talented youngsters, but the bot gap will be too much to overcome.
EDG does face JDG on Friday, so that does make this a sandwich game for them. Two days removed from a big win over FPX and two days ahead of a big showdown with last springs champs, I could get behind a letdown narrative here if you're searching for a way to get different. EDG does have a history of messing with the hearts of their fans. I worry about it because I've seen it for four years now, and I even called on it last week when I wanted to play some OMG. I will likely play a bit of both sides just in case, but I won't like it because this LGD squad is not good in its current form.
Top EDG Plays:
- Scout - MID - leads the team in kill participation, but his kill share is down with Viper and Flandre's arrival.
- Jiejie - JNG - second in KP% and KS% narrowly behind Scout and ahead of Flandre.
- Meiko - SUP - engage champs are his strength, and Alistar, Leona, and even Rakan are so hot right now.
- Viper - ADC - Leads the team in kill share and is adjusting to the league quickly.
- Flandre - TOP - best top on the slate, statistically speaking.
Top LGD Plays: if you must
- Garvey - ADC - Has progressed in the ADC quickly and was always a very talented prospect.
- Kui - JNG - Promising young jungler second on the team in kill share.
- Uniboy - MID - seems to have adapted quickly to the LPL and is clearly as talented as his World's run suggested.
Summary
- TLDR: FPX 2-0, EDG 2-0, there's no other way, is there? EDG does have a history of disappointing losses. See also: DMO- Xubin. RW probably has the most significant kill upside on the slate if they were to win, and FPX has the edge for the favorites as LGD hasn't been very aggressive and lose by a lot.
- I think going with a full EDG stack would be different, especially since I just told you FPX likely scores better. Another move could be building a FanDuel lineup on DraftKings, trying to one-off someone like Haro or Kui if you think they steal a game, which could give you the salary to load up on the other match.
- Pretty tight slate tonight, but never fear four-gamers return tomorrow, and #teamnodaysoff will be there with you. Thanks again for tuning in, and we'll see you on the fantasy rift.
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