RADIO
I'm not backing down from my AFS stinks take just because they put up some fantasy points on Sunday morning. It was how bad they stank that allowed them to do that. They nearly gave game two away with some shady baron setups and then got aced in Brion's base. Luckily Brion is the bottom of the barrel in the LCK.
I also may have to admit that IG is hot garbage and no longer able to get away with their shit as Rookie is the only player with an edge on that team right now. Wink may be as well, but with Bao and theshy HARD inting, it's challenging to watch this team. LNG toyed with TT, and it cost them some fantasy points; they even swapped top laners for a minute and were still able to win. DWG was predictably DWG.
Back to two-game slates for a couple of days while the LCK reloads for week two. Tuesday's slate seems uber chalky already just glancing at it, so we better enjoy having some choices to make today while we can. Wednesday, when the LCK returns, IG will be back to ruin that slate unless I can finally shed my fanboy persona. Well, enough about my emotions, let's get on to the next one. Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, January 18th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: OMG (+130) vs. Estar (-180)
OMG has had nearly a week off since their loss to FPX last Tuesday, and good thing, too, as they have a lot of work to do on this squad. Estar had the weekend off after drilling RW and their backup ADC. Hopefully, OMG took that time to work on their drafts, which were a bit of a liability in week one. Estar's drafting has been a strength, specifically setting H4cker up for jungle success.
Estar has several advantages over this OMG squad, including the drafting, which I already mentioned. Talent-wise I believe eStar are better everywhere, but the jungle role where I slightly favor Aki. They have ShiauC, a star-caliber player, especially when allowed to get on his signature Thresh pick. Both teams have several new players, but on the eStar side, Rat and Irma have played together in the LDL, and both had stints on the main roster last year. That gives them synergy with ShiauC as well. On the OMG side, only Eric and Cold have that comfort level with each other, with everyone else newly joined in the offseason.
Upsets are always in the cards, and with most players likely splitting the second matchup, the primary way to get an ownership advantage on this slate would be to side with OMG. The only way I give that any credence is that eStar was some busy boys having picked up their win over RW on Friday, and they have a big match coming up with IG on Wednesday. They may not be as prepared for OMG as OMG are for them since OMG has been off for nearly a week and doesn't play again until Thursday. It's something to go on, at least if you're searching for a reason to go wild. I'll stick with eStar they've played and drafted well though week one couple with their continuity and talent edge should be enough to take them over OMG.
Top ES Plays:
- Rat - ADC - Leads team in kill share and third in kill participation.
- ShiauC - SUP - second in all LPL in KP% through five games. Likely the best support in the league.
- Irma - MID - the rookie looks good and is second in KP and KS.
- H4cker - JNG - needs to up the KP% third in kill share, but putting up good farm numbers against stiff competition thus far.
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6:00 AM: BLG (Even) vs. V5 (-135)
We can only assume the Trigger experiment is over as V5 went to the bullpen for Y4 almost immediately against LGD, and that was the right call when the converted top-laner outplays you. My poor Billibilli boys did what I thought they would, versus JDG start well and finish poorly. I still view them as a summer split team as their chemistry will take some time with all new players around Meteor.
BLG is a talented team, and there is no disputing that. What remains to be seen is how quickly they can come together as a unit. BLG has the edge in the jungle matchup talent-wise, but Weiwei has done a better job playing for his teammates so far this split. Mid and top lane are probably both a push at this point, but I believe Zeka probably has a higher ceiling than Mole. Aiming is more talented than Y4, but that can be neutralized by ppgod over mark. The teams are pretty balanced in terms of talent with a slight edge to BLG.
BLG's drafts have been a bit questionable, and without Mark getting his Leona, they seem to struggle. JDG banned both Leona and Alistar away from Mark, which left him on a very exposable Gragas. Estar did not exclude either champion away, allowing Mark to play his best games of the split thus far against them. V5's drafts have been a bit hit or miss as well, and if they allow either of those heavy engage tanky support champions through, I will hammer a live bet on BLG. Without knowing the drafts first, I'll still give a slight edge to V5 as theirs seem to have improved a bit over the week.
V5 returned four of five players from last summer's squad and arguably upgraded the other. For me, this is a considerable edge over BLG and the reason they are most likely to win this matchup.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG - Lead the team in kill participation.
- Ppgod - SUP - Such good engages, and second on the team in KP%
- Y4 - ADC - Leads the team in kill share and is showing he can carry.
- Mole - MID - third in KP% second in KS%, but might have the best matchup of anyone versus Zeka.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG - as he goes, so goes BLG insane farm through five games leads all LPL junglers at 7.2 cspm. He needs to do better, translating his lead to his laners.
- Aiming - ADC - HARD carry, 34% kill share leads the team.
- Buibui - TOP - best numbers of any top on the slate, and the revenge narrative is in play.
- Zeka - MID - Leads team in KP%, and I'm not recommending Mark.
Summary
- TLDR: Estar 2-0, V5 2-1, I gave you a reason, albeit flimsy, for playing OMG if you're feeling froggy. My OMG gun remains out of bullets tho having expended them both in week one. BLG is very live to win the second match, especially if V5 surrender some power picks in the draft.
- Both matches are very close in pace, and I think that taking your full stacks from the second match will be a simple way to create some differentiation. Most will view the first match as a comfortable sweep and prioritize those players looking for the sweep bonuses.
- Two-game slate get wild and play OMG, game stack the second set, full-stack BLG, listen to your heart. It's early season, the numbers are close, and the samples are small. Have fun out there, and we'll see you tomorrow.
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