RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 1/11/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
HOLY HELL, BOYS, IG IS BACK! WORLD'S TITLE INCOMING! IG proved that if you let Rookie get fed, and theshy doesn't int, they can still compete. Xun looked great, and the bot lane followed theshy's example and didn't int. JDG suffered from some draft woes, allowing Rookie a free lane by drafting the scaling Viktor twice. WE cruised through RW in the opener as I think we all expected them too. Now we're on to the next one with a couple of close matches today.
LCK will have the earliest start date in their history this year and join us overnight on January 13th. While the LPL will be two games every day of the week, the LCK will have two games five nights a week. So without the truncated schedules due to covid that we saw last year, things should settle into a nice rhythm. LPL alone on Monday and Tuesday AM for two-game slates, and LPL/LCK four-gamers for the rest of the week. I miss the old LPL schedule with three games stacked up on Saturdays and Sundays, but they don't put much stock into what I have to say when scheduling.
The esports team here at Rotoballer is committed to joining you every step of the way through the upcoming season. We're looking at adding some new features for you all to enjoy, but until we get those up and running, you'll have your old faithful story-telling grandpa here for daily research and recommendations. Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, January 11th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: BLG (-315) vs. eStar (+220)
So if you've sifted through my Twitter account, I think you already know that one of my most exciting teams coming into the season is BLG. I spent a lot of time last year throwing good money after bad due to my love of Meteor, but this year will be different. I'm not just talking about the flashy new blue and pink uniform design either. Estar will be in for further problems this spring after their fantastic debut last year. Let's dig in.
Estar first, obviously I'll save the best for last. Estar made a terrific debut for themselves last spring split, if you recall, but had Cryin on loan from RNG. After returning to his original club, they could not duplicate their roaming fighting style in the summer split. Xiaobai, WEI, Wink, and Fenfen are all gone having been replaced by ZS, H4cker, Rat, and Irma. ZS in the top lane profiles as an upgrade, and he is fresh off an LDL title with Invictus Youth. H4cker was a bottom third jungler with OMG last year and represents a significant downgrade at a crucial position. We saw some matches from Rat in summer, and that looks like another downgrade for the team. Irma is an upgrade over Fenfen in the mid lane. They also lost to the Young Miracles, an LDL squad (14th place) at Demacia. Overall this squad improved slightly, but for a team that finished 16th of 17, that's a big oof.
Now we're on to them Billibilli boys. Someone did finally listen to me as BLG kept the one vital aspect of their team and flushed everything else. Coach Kim comes back to the LPL from his stint with T1, and he's got some raw material with which to work. Buibui joins from SNG to shore up the top lane. Zeka comes over from Rare Atom ni VG. Aiming joins from KT Rolster, who did disappoint with a sixth-place finish in LCK summer. Aiming himself, though, was excellent. He finished first in kill participation and second in kill share among LCK adcs last split. Mark will bring his Worlds experience to BLG from LGD. Add all these new pieces to my main man Meteor, and you've got a recipe for success.
BLG will have lots of growing pains along the way, and I am thinking of them as a summer split team because of that. Imports often struggle to adapt initially to the pace of the LPL, and I worry Aiming will be no different. They will also have to balance communication issues with a Korean mid, adc, and coach, but Chinese top, jungle, and support. The jungle gap will be in favor of BLG, and that should be the difference-maker. Meteor led a much worse BLG squad over H4cker's OMG team 2-1 in week six. BLG takes this one in my book again in a 2-1 fashion. They have the clear edge in three of five positions, and neither team has an advantage in continuity.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG - He led the league in kill participation last summer, not just among junglers, for all starters, slightly edging out DoinB.
- Aiming - ADC - Possible struggles aside, Aiming was excellent in LCK last summer. Coupled with coach Kim's history of stud adcs, he should be in line to be featured again.
- Mark - SUP - Should be in close contact with his adc.
- Zeka - MID - While he is likely to be featured less than with VG, he should be a bigger facilitator within this team's framework.
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6:00 AM: TT (+320) vs. Royal Never Give Up (-500)
Team sadge has joined the server! If you're an ancient like myself, you remember the olden days of the internet, when AOL instant messenger was a thing, or even god forbid chat rooms. If that's the case, you likely remember making your emojis in this fashion :), and if you don't recall the 1990's you used to create a crying face like this T_T. Thunder Talk gaming replaced Dominus Esports and quickly revamped the roster. They will face off with everyone's favorite favorite; Royal Never Give Up.
Thundertalk, yes, that's what TT stands for, kept the top half of their map the same retaining Chelizi and Bless. They added Captain from IG Youth, Teen from Joy Dream (JDG's academy team), and SamD comes over from V5. Overall I think they put together a decent offseason for themselves, but this was the last place squad from last summer. The absolute ceiling from this team is 10th place.
This version of RNG might have even more questions swirling about it than did last year's squad. The Xiaohu top lane experiment is not over, but there are questions in the jungle with WEI coming over from eStar in the offseason. Xiaobai also joined from eStar, giving RNG three ex eStar players on the roster. Two of those were initially RNG trainees in Cryin and Xiaobai. Gala had some ups and downs in 2020, but his most played champion in 2019 was Kaisa. The daughter of the void was also his most successful champion as he piloted her to a 58.6% over 29 games. Kaisa had an 86% presence in the Demacia Cup, so I look for her to continue to be an essential part of the adc meta for the first competitive patches.
While I think it will be another rough year for die-hard RNG fans, they should ultimately start on the right foot with a win over TT. Gala looked very good during the Demacia Cup, and WEI will have the advantage over Bless as well. Add that to Ming's experience gap over his opposite numbers on TT, and I feel it will all be too much for the revamped DMO replacements. I don't mind taking a shot on ThunderTalk here because RNG is trying to adjust to a new style and several new players and positions. I am a big proponent of Xiaohu top lane and think it will ultimately be successful, but may have more wrinkles to iron out before then.
Top RNG Plays:
- WEI - JNG - Led the team in kill participation at Demacia.
- Cryin - MID - Second in KP% if they're going to play like spring eStar, we should see a roving death ball of jng, mid, and sup roving the map causing chaos.
- Gala - ADC - led the team and was top three among adcs in kill share percentage in the Demacia Cup.
- Ming - SUP - has plenty of experience helping and guiding hyper carry adcs to success.
Top TT Plays:
- Captain - MID - Team leader at Demacia in all the important stats.
- Bless - JNG - Nearly matched Captain in KP% and KS%
- SamD - ADC - A more utility-oriented ADC with V5 last split but still put up respectable numbers coupled with the Peng Peng Gawd
- Teen - SUP - Big shoes to fill for SamD's lane partner, but if I'm in for a penny, I'm in for a pound on the ThunderTalk upset, right.
Summary
- TLDR: BLG 2-1 and RNG 2-1. We all know I'm not afraid of upsets and that I'm terrified of RNG tanking, as we all are, and rightly so. They have burned us all as favorites many times, and if they drop a game, the swaps will be firmly on the table. TT has subs in mid and jungle they can roll out as well.
- I like BLG bigly in the opener and wouldn't be surprised if they sweep, but I also think that is the slower of the two matches. Coach Kim will likely stick with a more controlled LCK style, and both eStar and BLG were near the bottom in pace at Demacia. RNG was surprisingly high paced, and if TT pull the upset, look to stack them up.
- Ownership should be more spread out today, with these matches being closer and RNG as the biggest fav. Likely the numbers will follow these vegas odds closely.
- IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG IG they'll never let me down again. Only one more two-game slate to go after today. Then we'll have five straight days of four gamers as the LCK kicks off starting Wedneday AM.
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