RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate, the first regular season slate of 2023! After an amazing Worlds event with DRX taking down T1 in a five-game final, we got a nice break to celebrate the holidays and prepare for another year of LoL DFS. I hope everyone had a holiday season and a nice ending to 2022, but it's time for league of legends to take the stage, front and center. This offseason brought plenty of roster changes, so we are going to see new faces in new organizations, for better or for worse. Most teams will need time for new rosters to synergize and mesh with one another, which means upsets are more likely to happen in the early season, at least that's how I see it. Without further ado, let's break down this five-gamer and see who we can look to target across Draftkings and Fanduel
As previously mentioned, a lot of teams have made roster swaps, so the best way to find LPL starters before lineup lock is on Twitter. Just go into the explore tab and search LPL starters, and multiple accounts will have starters posted an hour or earlier before lock most of the time.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, January 14th, 2023. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: WE (-106) vs. FPX (-115)
To kick off the 2023 LPL regular season we have two mid-tier teams with playoff aspirations. FPX seems to be the better team on paper after keeping Lwx and Care, while bringing in new players in Fearness, H4cker, and Lele. Team WE kept their solo laners in Biubiu and Shanks, while adding Hope, Iwandy, and Heng. Both teams have young prospects that will look to develop this split with the help of the veterans of their respective squads. FPX is coming off a playoff appearance last split and even won a series against OMG in the process. Led by Lwx, this team looks to hopefully replicate their success from last year. Team WE had arguably the worst split of all time last summer, not winning a single series the entire split. '
Team WE enters this split on a 16(!) series losing streak, so they will look to hop on the W train against a beatable FPX team. Hopefully, (yes I said it) team WE's new ADC can bring them to playoff glory once more, as this is an organization that has won the LPL title multiple times in years past. I will be banking on them tomorrow to take down FPX in most likely three games, in order to fit a more expensive team that will be discussed later. I will be looking at Hope, who is coming off a really strong split JDG, to be the main carry of this team.
Obviously, playing with JDG makes your job a whole lot easier as an ADC, but it can't be denied how consistent he was in carrying games and making some highlight plays. I basically am depending on Team WE's top side of the map to hold their own and at least go even or slightly behind until the mid to late game, where Hope can shine. I think the bot lane and mid lane matchup are fairly even, and one advantage that WE have over FPX is that they don't have H4cker on the roster. H4cker might not even start tomorrow, but whoever does I believe Heng can hang with them, as he has played against haoye in the LDL, and H4cker is just not a great player in my eyes.
Look for Team WE to grind out a close one tomorrow off the backs of Hope and Shanks, starting of their regular season in the win column. However, this game could shape out to be the least bloody on the slate tomorrow, so I will mainly be looking here for small stacks and one-offs. If you choose to play FPX (I only play a max of 10 lineups so I won't be on them) in this coin flip match, look for Lwx and Care to get most of the work done.
Top WE plays: Hope, Shanks, Heng
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4:00 AM: IG (-111) vs. AL (-109)
This next matchup features a developmental squad in IG against one of everyone's favorite sneaky underdogs in AL. These odds scare me slightly since I believe AL should handle this team in three games worst case. IG is simply not a good roster at the moment, getting rid of their best player and the primary reason they would win games last split in XUN. IG brought in two players from the LCK in Gideon and Dove, while adding YSKM from the LDL and keeping their bot lane in Ahn and Wink. AL was one series win away from a playoff appearance last split but fell apart in the tough final stretch of their schedule. AL definitely has playoff aspirations once more after bringing in Swordart to reunite with Betty, and grabbing Pinz from the LDL to develop alongside the bottom-lane veterans. This AL team got slightly better overall by only replacing two roles, while IG definitely took a step down in a key jungle role and not adding any players of XUN's caliber, which is why these odds don't really make sense to me.
If you couldn't tell by now I prefer AL in this matchup. Sure, it's early in the split and AL could very well be figuring out how to mesh as a team, but the same could be said for IG. Arguably IG's point of strength is their bot lane(no longer their jungle,) which is not saying much, especially when going against another bottom-focused team who is just better in that role. Betty and Swordart should outclass this IG bot lane throughout the game, barring any rust they need to shake off. I can really only see IG taking one game at most here.
There is a solid chance AL can sweep this IG team that is in a rebuilding/developmental split. If AL plans to make a playoff run this split, they have to beat teams of lower caliber, and I think they get it done tomorrow. Mix in AL secondary and primary stacks to fit the winner of this next game we will discuss. AL primary stacks could be the chalky option tomorrow but I don't care, the only way I see them failing tomorrow is if they go to three games and don't put up high-kill games in the process. This could be a bloody sweep which is why I like AL primary stacks, but since it is early in the split, they could show some reserve in terms of forcing plays and not fighting when they don't need to.
Top AL plays: Betty, Xiaohao, Zdz, Pinz, TEAM
6:00 AM: JDG (-349) vs. BLG (+269)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is a matchup of two playoff teams with hopes of winning the whole LPL. JDG is the odds-on favorite after adding Ruler and Knight (you read that right) to the roster and keeping their other three core members, as they look to defend their LPL title from the last split. BLG upgraded their roster as well in multiple roles by adding Xun, Yagao, Elk, and On. I personally am a big fan of this BLG roster as I have always enjoyed watching XUN and Elk on their former squads. I think Yagao is a great fit for this roster as he will likely play for his side lanes as he did on JDG, and with capable carries in Bin and Elk on both sides of the map, this team should find plenty of success in the regular season. Both these teams will definitely make playoffs and most likely earn at least one playoff bye. However, this is as tough a first matchup as you could ask if you are BLG.
This matchup should probably see some bloodshed, which makes it great for primary stacks on either side. I personally lean toward JDG in this one, as they have an advantage on paper in arguably every role and kept most of their core, and have fewer unknowns than BLG on the other side. With the bot lane upgrade in Ruler, who was widely considered the best ADC in the world last year by many, I think this is where JDG can find its biggest edge.
Knight definitely holds an edge over Yagao as well, even if he didn't have the greatest showing at worlds last fall. Xun and Bin are slightly beneath their counterparts in this matchup but with two teams of this caliber, anything can happen, ESPECIALLY early in the split. This will be a great match to watch, and I can see it going three games either way, but I will be prioritizing JDG while also sprinkling some BLG at low ownership in GPPs tomorrow. If BLG can pull out an early season upset, it will be in bloody fashion, which is why I like primary stacks from both sides here. I'd like to think they will try and play toward Bin on the top side of the map, but they could definitely look to shut down Ruler and get Elk ahead early and in a nice position to carry. I will be looking at JDG primarily though.
Top JDG plays: Ruler, Kanavi, Knight, 369
Top BLG plays: Xun, Yagao, Bin, Elk
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on WE and AL for value to fit in JDG, but also playing some BLG with WE and AL to be really contrarian. I think people will do what it takes to jam in JDG tomorrow, specifically by playing AL captains, which is why I like WE because they allow you to fit in some Knight and Kanavi captains. FPX full stacks could also be somewhat contrarian tomorrow, but I won't be going there, same with IG. As I mentioned, FPX vs WE could end up being the lowest-scoring series of tomorrow, regardless of who wins.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are JDG/WE, AL/JDG, and AL/BLG.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like AL with JDG.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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