RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column. You know your boy isn't back off his FNC dislike, and now the slates have lined up, and I can pick against the LEC hard. Just like play-ins all over again. On a related note did you see the news that MAD released Shadow and Orome. They signed Armut from Supermassive and Elyoya from the Movistar Riders to replace them. It looks like the hot stove league is underway, and we haven't even set up the Worlds semi-final.
Speaking of which, this will be the penultimate article from yours truly for the season. We should only have one more two-day two-game slate next weekend for that final four. It won't be till after Christmas when the pre-season tournaments kick off in China (Demacia Cup) and Korea (Kespa Cup).
Those contests are fun because we will all be fiending for some LOL DFS action by then, but they can be difficult to analyze as some teams do not take them seriously. They also include teams from the LDL and CK, the two developmental leagues for the LPL and LCK. Teams with deep Worlds runs often send their developmental squad to play instead of the primary team. Still, other team rosters are in flux yet, and we saw SNG play Weiwei at ADC last year.
Sorry, a bit of a detour for those of you wondering how the post-Worlds landscape looks. Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 6:00 AM ET on Saturday, October 17th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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TES (LPL) -950 vs. FNC (LEC) +500
So once again, I'm going to run back to my TES/FNC. It's just easier for those of us playing on DraftKings this way as it will get you in the right frame of mind for the two-game slate. I'm still on TES here, FNC split with LGD and Gen G in the play-ins, and TES wipes the floor with both of those teams. So shall it be with Fnatic.
Looking at the regular season stats won't do us much good as Fnatic were mediocre at best, so let's look into the group stage numbers. Fnatic is the were the more proactive early game team-leading TES in first blood and first turret, while TES lead in rift herald and gold differential at 15 minutes. TES does have the edge in drakes, barons, and vision numbers. If TES get a gold lead early, FNC will be in trouble, but if FNC can force their way to the front, they could have a chance.
Fnatic has stepped up their play tremendously at worlds, but TES has played an incredibly strong league all summer. As a famously wise and powerful bot-laner once said, "like, you don't win LPL if you're bad." That little gem is courtesy of Rekkles himself as FNC was surprised by the strength of FPX last year, especially LWX and Crisp. Europe has had great success at worlds the previous two years playing their style of league, and Fnatic is a big part of that. In this matchup, however, their paths to victory are minimal, and as a result, they will lose the flexibility necessary to compete over a five-game set.
We have also seen TES be able to win from behind as they did versus DRX in their second match. With the skill gap in all three lanes, Top is quite likely to win out no matter how the early game progresses. I think this will be similar to Fnatic's last two international meetings with the LPL in best of fives at Worlds. 3-0 by Invictus Gaming and 3-1 by FPX in 2019, in case you don't recall. I like TES to collect the win 3-1, and I think that maybe a bit generous giving FNC one game that Selfmade can carry early and snowball to the victory from there.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- 369 - TOP
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Gen G (LCK) -125 vs. G2 (LEC) -110
Another chance for me to rip on the LEC, and I wouldn't miss it. Seriously though, this is the closest and most intriguing of all the semi-final matchups. G2 will likely be the LEC's only hope to make it three straight finals for the region, trying to cement itself as the second-best in the world. Let's dive into this matchup, and we'll start with the team stats.
G2 struggled throughout the regular split but came alive during the playoffs, and they played more games in the playoffs than they did during the regular split. Using those playoff stats, I think G2 could be in trouble. Gen G holds the edge in the stats, all of them. Moving on to the group stage stats, then we see G2 upped their game further yet. They were more active early, and they lead Gen G in the first turret and first blood rates. Gen answers with a better rift herald percentage, CSM, and gold differential at 15. Gen also holds a significant advantage in drakes and barons, but G2 does surprisingly have an edge in vision numbers.
G2 holds court within the LEC because no one can match their powerful solo laners, and that gives them the freedom to make plays across the map. They are an excellent macro team trading objectives and map sides deftly, but we saw in their matches with SNG that it becomes much harder to do so when the opponents match or exceed their skill level. Gen G's Rascal and Bdd will match anything that Wunder and Caps bring to the table, and that will leave a lot of this series in the hands of the bot lane.
G2 will have trouble here because, as my gal Sjkoz so eloquently put it, "cause Perkovich ain't doin' shit." Gen G's Ruler might be the second-best ADC at the tournament, behind TES's Jackeylove. His damage numbers are insane, his CSM, his kill participation, and his kill share all outpace Perkz. Perkovich has improved his laning phase during the group stage, but his team fighting and decision making have lacked. I believe that the lack of competition in LEC will cost G2 in this matchup.
G2 has seemed overconfident in groups thus far, and we have seen them punished by SNG and TL. They over-committed to multiple fights in both series and were punished by not being able to outplay. Gen G has been the most successful LCK team versus DWG, and G2's talent level will not overawe them. It sounds like so far, I don't think G2 has a chance in this match, which's not true. If G2 reviews their vods and can check some of their hubris at the door, they may unlock the version of themselves that are 13-6 versus the LCK in international competition since 2018.
Their map strength and flexibility were the keys to those victories over more rigid LCK opponents. G2 will be on the red side to start the matchup as the lower seed, and that could help them with the ability to counter pick as they are 11-5 on red. Gen G with the comfort of blue are 27-4, not as impressive as DWG's unbeaten streak, but strong just the same. Tally it all up, side selection, team stats, bot gap, and competition level comes out to a Gen G win in my book. I like them to go over G2 3-1 here and to score very well doing so. G2 is live, and I will likely have some small G2 stacks as well.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Life - SUP
- Clid - JNG
- Rascal - TOP
Top G2 Plays:
- Jankos - JNG
- Caps - MID
- Wunder - TOP
- G2 Team
Summary
- TLDR - TES 3-1 and Gen G 3-1 pretty simple slate tbh. I'm going to count on G2 to be down early and feed ala their blow out loss to TL. I also think that G2 likely goes over-owned as people try to maximize their TES exposure chasing that sure win.
- FNC will be at or around 10%, and that's probably 9% higher than their chance to win that series. TES will push 60%, with Gen G and G2 coming around 40%. The ownership should shake out very similar to the opening slate of DRX/DWG SNG/JDG.
- That's all, everyone, and I hope we get some more killer games and some green screens to go with it. I can't wait to meet you all back here next weekend for the semis, and one good thing to come from COVID canceling Halloween we'll all be home to watch the Grand Final together.
- If you need to kill some time between now and then peep these opening ceremonies from the past two finals. 2019 and 2018
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