RADIO
Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books and that means the overreactions are now pouring in from every nook and cranny across the fantasy universe. Erik Ezukanma outscored Tee Higgins and Drake London. Tyler Allgeier is the running back No. 4. Joshua Kelley and Justice Hill outscored Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. In other words, Fantasy Football is all the way back.
Some offenses exploded (Dolphins) and some faltered beyond belief (Bengals). Fantasy football is sometimes the most unpredictable game out there. That is what makes it so exhilarating but simultaneously so frustrating. Your dreams can be crushed in an instant, or you can be down by 35 points and end up winning comfortably because of one defensive masterclass.
One of the more surprising performances of Week 1 was the offensive machine we saw from the Los Angeles Rams. Many expected the Rams to falter against the upstart Seahawks who boast a bevy of elite offensive personnel. Especially with virtually zero proven weapons behind their superstar wide receiver Cooper Kupp who is on IR. But instead, it was the Rams that stole the spotlight. Sean McVay's team utterly embarrassed their intra-divisional rivals, hanging 30 points and the third most yards in Week 1. Can the Rams sustain this offensive output moving forward? Here we take a look at the value and outlook of their fantasy-relevant performances from this past week, as well as the probability of sustained success.
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The Running Back Room
Former Florida State standout Cam Akers was a popular target in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts for 2023. After almost being cut last season, Akers finished strong with three straight games of 100+ yards. That put him just behind Christian McCaffery for total points among RBs over those last three weeks in half-point PPR scoring.
As the presumed starter with no foreseen competition coming into this year, many believed Akers would be a dependable RB2 on sheer volume alone. If he was getting fed the ball like he was in weeks 15-18, why wouldn’t he be a strong fantasy asset in ‘23?
Well, we saw on Sunday that volume alone will not necessarily lead to fantasy success. Akers took a team-high 22 carries (which also tied for the NFL lead) into a putrid 29 yards against Seattle in Week 1. The Seahawks also had a bottom-five defense last season in points allowed vs. the running back position, making this horrible output look even worse.
The former second-round NFL draft pick legitimately made history on Sunday, for the wrong reason. With his 1.32 YPC, Akers now ranks in the bottom 15 of players ever in terms of yards gained on 20+ carries.
While Akers did lead the Rams backfield in terms of opportunities, the numbers are misleading. Akers’ backfield mate Kyren Williams saw 15 carries and turned them into a respectable 52 yards and two touchdowns. Williams was on the field much more when the game was competitive, signaling that he is the more trusted back of the two.
Williams also ran the fifth most routes in the entire league among running backs in Week 1. He only saw two targets, but that will increase if he continues to be used in that way. In contrast, Akers - who is not known for being a great pass-catcher - ran only four routes and was not targeted. Overall snap breakdowns are also telling, as Akers (28) ceded quite a bit of playing time to his teammate Williams (52).
The numbers tell us that this is going to be a RBBC with Williams definitely the heavy favorite. Akers has been aggravating fantasy managers for a few years now, and it doesn’t appear that this year is going to be any different. The Rams' offense looked more than competent in Week 1, so Williams definitely has value as a potential trade piece or a semi-risky flex play. As for Akers, well, he is simply in the unplayable range until proven otherwise.
I would advise against playing either back this coming week against the terrifying 49ers front. Akers might have negative total yards against this defense. After that, the schedule softens slightly (at Cincinnati, Indy, Philadelphia, and Arizona) so we should learn a lot more about the backfield situation from those games. It’s worth noting that McVeigh always gives the 49ers fits, so pay attention to who is getting burned if this game does come down to the wire.
The Leftovers (Pass-Catchers)
While the RBs did most of the scoring, the wide receivers were shockingly the ones who were chewing up all of the offensive yards. Former Louisville Cardinal Tutu Atwell and rookie Puka Nacua both had over 100 yards receiving on a combined 23 targets. Nacua became the fourth player in NFL history with 10+ catches and over 100+ yards in his debut.
The BYU product was exactly what the Rams needed, filling the “Cooper Kupp” role to perfection. Nacua showed great chemistry with QB Matthew Stafford, eating up those intermediate quick-hitter routes from the slot that the Seahawks had absolutely no answer for. There’s no reason to believe this duo will slow down significantly, especially with Kupp out until at least week 5.
The next two weeks could be tough for the Rams - they head to Levi’s Stadium this week and then it’s at the Bengals the week after. If there’s one thing we know about the Niners' defense though, it’s that they are much more susceptible through the air than on the ground. The Rams will likely need a fair share of points in both of these games and Nacua should be locked in as a WR3 for the time being, with upside for more.
With Stafford showing remnants of his old gunslinger self, Atwell and tight-end Tyler Higbee should also be solid options moving forward. The former saw eight targets on the day and turned those into six catches for 119 yards. He’s more of a WR4/borderline flex option at this point in time but serviceable for fantasy if your squad suffered some injuries in week 1. Atwell was a second-round pick just two years ago that ran a sub 4.4, so don’t be surprised if he keeps producing.
Higbee went 3-for-49 on three targets, which fantasy managers can’t really be upset with even if more was expected out of the veteran tight end. He’ll get his targets as the longest-tenured Ram of the pass-catchers. Continue to play him as a mid-tier TE1.
Seattle was third in the league last season with 21.6 points per game allowed to WRs per Pro Football Reference and returned most of their secondary pieces led by breakout fifth-round rookie corner Tariq Woolen. This should not have been an easy defense to carve up, yet the Rams did just that.
I’m a little scared as to what the Niners' front might do to the Rams' offensive line. But if McVeigh concocts the right game plan, the Rams will get some playable fantasy days out of their surprise stars.
When Kupp does eventually come back it will be interesting to see who his presence most impacts. Based on what we saw in terms of offensive alignment in Week 1 it will most likely be Nacua, but he just might be too good for Stafford to ignore.
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