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Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2024 Miami event at Trump National Doral Golf Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.
The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida. Trump National Doral Golf Club was founded in 1962 and originally named Doral Country Club before being purchased by the Trump Organization in 2012. The resort consists of four separate courses; the most notable is the Blue Monster Course which was designed by Dick Wilson and overwent a Gil Hanse re-design in 2014. This is the course we will be seeing this week for the LIV Miami event.
The Blue Monster Course hosted the WGC-Cadillac Championship from 2007-2016. Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson have all won this event, although Mickelson’s win came prior to the re-design. Although he never won, Bubba Watson has three runner-up finishes at this event. The Blue Monster has also hosted the LIV Golf League team championship each of the past two seasons. Dustin Johnson’s 4Aces and Bryson DeChambeau’s Crushers are the two champions of this event.
The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally, the event will be broadcast in over 160 international territories, Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus. The event is set to tee off Thursday night EST.
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LIV Golf Miami Course Breakdown
Below is the official Round 1 scorecard provided by LIV Golf.
| Hole | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Out |
| Par | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 36 |
| Yardage | 578 | 463 | 440 | 227 | 414 | 430 | 472 | 590 | 190 | 3804 |
| Hole | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | In |
| Par | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| Yardage | 608 | 428 | 670 | 245 | 475 | 183 | 370 | 450 | 468 | 3897 |
The Blue Monster Course is going to be a brute this week, playing just over 7,700 yards. The course is long and challenging, featuring a ton of strategically placed bunkers and deep rough throughout. Water is a staple of this course, visible on every hole and coming into play on most. The course is named “The Blue Monster” because of the challenging water hazards players are forced to deal with during the round. The course’s signature hole is number 18, a 468-yard par 4, which features water running the whole length of the hole up the left side. While missing right is the bailout, players will then be rewarded with a long approach shot out of deep rough into a green surrounded by water on the left side.
This will be third straight year that LIV Golf has hosted an event at this course, however, it’s the first featuring individual competition. For the last two years, Doral has been the site of the team championship, a match-play style event used to crown the LIV team champion. Dustin Johnson’s 4 Aces were victorious in 2022, and Bryson DeChambeau’s Crushers took home the title last year. While we could break down match details to see how players performed, I believe it might be counterproductive to try to predict how players will perform this week based on team match play success.
I will instead be looking at course fit and players with an extra layer of motivation. Given the sheer length and difficulty of the course, I believe longer hitters are going to have a huge advantage this week. At the very least, players who play long courses well. Patrick Reed is an example in my mind of a guy who isn’t necessarily a bomber but has performed historically well at longer more challenging courses. This is also the final tune-up for next week’s Masters. Players who will be teeing it up at Augusta next week may come into this week with a little extra motivation to find some form and confidence leading into the season’s first major.
LIV Golf Betting Odds - Miami
Below are the current odds to win LIV Miami as posted by BetUs. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change, so I would recommend finding the best numbers available. Please note for my picks, I have used the best odds that I was able to find while making my selections, so numbers may vary.
Given the setup of the course this week, I am going to look for long hitters who have a proven track record of playing well on difficult courses. Since this was a former stop on the PGA Tour, I will also be taking into account players who have a strong record and proven success at Trump Doral.
Dustin Johnson +1600 ( FanDuel)
Dustin Johnson started off the year strong with a top-five finish at Mayakoba and a win in Vegas in February. DJ outdueled Bryson and Jon Rahm in the final group to bring home the victory and looked like his old self, calm and composed down the stretch, doing what was needed to win the tournament. After the win, I thought to myself, “he’s back.” It’s been a weird couple of starts since, with a 27th-place finish in Jeddah and a 21st-place finish in Hong Kong, but I fully expect a bounce back this week.
Everything happens for a reason #4AcesGC pic.twitter.com/gw9fhzokx3
— 4 Aces GC (@4AcesGC_) March 29, 2024
Johnson has a great track record at Doral, finishing inside the top ten three times in eight starts. He won the WGC-Cadillac Championship here in 2015, coming after the Hanse re-design of the course. Despite a couple of uninspiring starts leading up to this event, DJ still boasts strong league stats in 2024. He is 4th in the LIV Golf League in total birdies and 8th in GIR percentage. His length off the tee and strong track record at major championships and other difficult courses should suit him well this week with the setup at Doral.
This is also the final tune-up for the 39-year-old before Augusta. After his win in Las Vegas, Johnson spoke about his disappointing 2023 season and his motivation for 2024, stating, “This year, I have a little more drive and determination because I don’t enjoy not playing well.” DJ has a phenomenal track record at Augusta, and I expect that he’ll want to head into the first major of the season in good form.
Brooks Koepka +1600 (FanDuel)
The Masters is now less than two weeks away, which means Big Game Brooks is back! Form and stats can kind of be tossed out the window when it comes to Koepka in major season. When the lights are the brightest, he turns it on and plays his best golf. Last season after a horrendous start to 2023, Brooks locked in and won at the Crooked Cat in Orlando a week before the Masters. Can he duplicate what he did last year in Orlando, this week in Miami? As a longtime fan and someone who follows Brooks Koepka closely, I’ve been very intrigued by his start to 2024.
Just getting started https://t.co/zyJz18WtOI pic.twitter.com/QaNOGmo9k7
— Brooks Koepka (@BKoepka) March 21, 2024
Brooks is a notoriously slow starter to the season throughout his career. Aside from a good record at Waste Management, Koepka has been pretty bad in his early season stops. Take Torrey Pines, for example, an early season PGA Tour stop, which he has played four times. Koepka made just one cut in four starts there and shot below 70 one time in ten rounds. Yet when the US Open came to Torrey Pines, he finished 4th and broke 70 twice on a harder setup. Last February, Koepka set the golf world into a frenzy when he shot 74-78 in Oman and missed the cut.
This year, however, feels different. The results haven’t necessarily jumped off the page, and if you aren’t paying close attention, you wouldn’t really notice it. But there hasn’t been any kind of shake-off of the rust period or complete dud for Koepka. He’s played 12 competitive rounds of golf and 11 of them have been in the 60s. He’s tied for 6th on the season in Green in Regulation percentage and 11th in birdies made. I believe Brooks has put more of an emphasis on getting off to a better start to the season and being more prepared than ever heading to Augusta. A win wouldn’t surprise me this week, not only because it's major season but because I think he’s in a lot better form than many think.
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