LIV Golf Betting Picks for 2024 Mayakoba - Matt Miller's Strategies and Best Bets

The LIV Golf League kicks off 2024 at El Camaleon Golf Course, in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. El Camaleon is hosting LIV’s opening event for the second consecutive season. The course also hosted the World Wide Technology Classic at Mayakoba on the PGA Tour prior to signing an agreement with LIV in 2022. LIV has expanded its field from 12 teams and 48 players to 13 teams
and 52 players this year, with two additional spots available for non-team, free agent players, to compete. Headline signing Jon Rahm will be captaining the new Legion XIII team.

Last year Charles Howell III won this event by four shots, finishing at -16. Peter Uihlein and Branden Grace rounded out the podium, finishing at -12 and -10 respectively. Additionally, these were the only three players on the week to shoot in the 60s in all three rounds. Howell fired a tournament low 63 on Sunday to cruise to victory. Paul Casey and Jason Kokrak had the second lowest rounds of the week, each shooting 65 in round one on Friday.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf Mayakoba Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

El Camaleon Golf Course was designed by LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman in 2006. It was the first Latin American Golf Course to host a PGA event as well as the first Latin American Golf Course to host a LIV Golf event. The course provides views of the Caribbean Sea on several oceanfront holes. On other holes, you will see jungle-lined fairways and lagoons running throughout. The course has Paspalum grass throughout.

This week the course will play as a 7116 yard par-71. El Camaleon is not a crazy challenge in terms of distance, but still presents other challenges for the golfers in the field. Wide misses can end up in the jungle and other hazards, resulting in big numbers on the scorecard. Looking at last year’s statistics, Charles Howell was 2nd in the field in fairway percentage. We’ve also seen this fairways and greens approach work on the PGA Tour, with plotters like Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar and Graeme Mcdowell winning this event.

However, I would beware of relying solely on accuracy statistics. Peter Uihlein and Branden Grace, who both had podium finishes at this event in 2023, finished 41st and 29th in fairway percentage on the week at El Camaleon. Therefore, missing the fairway, as long as you don’t miss into the hazards, isn’t all that penal. Despite finishing the week 41st in fairway percentage, Uihlein finished 4th in the field in greens in regulation last year.

One statistic that caught my attention in research was scrambling percentage. Charles Howell III, Peter Uihlein and Branden Grace all finished inside the top ten on the week in scrambling percentage. Charles Howell led the field in green in regulation percentage and hit less than 80% of greens on the week. He was also the only player in the field to hit more than 75% of greens on the week.

Overall, birdies are going to be out there this week, as seen by Charles Howell III’s 63 on Sunday of last year’s event. However, a key factor in my opinion will be avoiding bogeys. Charles Howell III and Peter Uihlein made three bogeys each last year on the week, Branden Grace just two. While it is easy to look at a three round event that was won at -16 and think, birdie fest. It wasn’t just about making birdies. Pat Perez for instance made 15 birdies on the week and finished at just -5 for the event. The players who reached the podium didn’t just make birdies, they also avoided mistakes.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Mayakoba

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Mayakoba

The first event of the season is always difficult to handicap. It is impossible to gauge just how hard each player has been working in the offseason and there is little recent form to go off for many players in the field.

While difficult, my method for this week will be choosing guys who have good history at this course in the past, as well as players who I think will be highly motivated for this event. Whether that be having something to prove after a disappointing 2023, having something to prove to a new team, or just having a little extra motivation to win in Mexico.

Joaquin Niemann +1400

It would be hard to argue that 2023 was not a largely disappointing season for Joaquin Niemann. The now 25-year-old had an average, at best, LIV season and made the cut in just two of his four major appearances. Despite the down year in 2023, Niemann is still one of the best young talents in golf and is out for revenge in 2024. While many LIV players relish the opportunity to have an extended offseason, Niemann took one month off of competitive golf and hit the ground running in November.

Since the Torque captain began tournament play, his results have been spectacular. In three starts he has finished 5th at the Australian PGA Championship, won the Australian Open in a playoff, and finished T4 in Dubai. Not bad for current form. His competitive offseason schedule also has him entering LIV’s opening event with a lot less rust in his game than some of the other top names on the board. I expect Niemann to come into the 2024 LIV season extremely focused and ready to make up for last season’s disappointment.

On top of form and offseason work ethic, the course fit is undeniable for the young Chilean. Last season’s T11 finish may not look like anything to write home about given the small field, but Niemann has played El Camaleon five straight seasons dating back to his days on the PGA Tour. In 2022, the last rendition of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, Niemann finished 5th , shooting in the 60s in all four rounds.

Abraham Ancer +2000

It’s been some time since we’ve seen Abraham Ancer in a competitive golf tournament. That said, the 32-year-old was in great form to close out 2023. He finished 3rd at LIV Bedminster, 4th at the International Series England, 5th in LIV Chicago, 11th in Jeddah and won a gold medal at the PanAmerican Games in his final five starts of the season. I spoke to Ancer following his first round at Bedminster in August and he said that he felt the game was closer than his scores were indicating. The results after our conversation speak for themselves.

While it would be easy to view LIV’s opening event of 2024 as an opportunity to shake some rust off for Ancer, this isn’t just any tournament. LIV Mayakoba is the Mexican star’s hometown event. In his appearance on Draws N Fades podcast last offseason, Ancer said "I told my agent we've gotta find a way to get a tournament to Mexico. I never in my life thought it would be Mayakoba. It's a perfect setting for a tournament for LIV. It's going to be a lot of fun." There’s no doubt that if Ancer could bring home a win at any tournament on LIV’s schedule, it would be Mayakoba.

His results at El Camaleon are no joke either. A t15 finish in last year’s LIV Mayakoba was a bit of a disappointment but in his previous five starts at this course on the PGA Tour, Ancer never finished worse than 21st. Three of the five starts were top nine results. A year ago, this weekend, Ancer picked up a huge win at the Saudi International. Can history repeat in 2024 with a win in his home country? I believe so.

Matthew Wolff +6600

Now a member of his third team in three years, nobody has had a more up and down ride in LIV Golf than Matthew Wolff. Wolff had four top ten finishes in 12 LIV events in 2023, but also had six finishes worse than 40th. It truly has been boom or bust for Wolff, and a large part of that has been his head space. Wolff started 2023 with four straight top ten finishes, three LIV starts and an appearance at the Saudi International. As the season progressed, things went downhill between Wolff and Smash GC captain, Brooks Koepka. The public call out of Wolff after a WD in Washington sent Wolff into a tailspin finishing 38th or worse in five of his final six starts.

Wolff is now a member of the Rangegoats. Captain Bubba Watson no doubt takes a more gentle approach to leadership than Smash captain, Brooks Koepka. Watson has also opened up about his own mental health struggles and will perhaps be able to relate to Wolff more than his previous teammates and captains. When Wolff joined LIV, he spoke about how excited he was to be part of a group and a team. It hasn’t worked out so far but it’s quite possible Wolff just hadn’t found his fit, until now. The Rangegoats seem like the perfect group for the 24-year-old. On top of Watson’s ability to relate to Wolff, new acquired Peter Uihlein and Wolff are very close, both being Oklahoma State graduates.

If the team fit and head space are right for Wolff, nobody doubts his talent. Wolff won the 3M Open as a rookie on the PGA Tour and finished inside the top five in two of the four majors in 2020. Since joining LIV, he has seven top ten finishes, four of which he finished inside the top five. Wolff finished T7 at El Camaleon last year and finished 5th in his lone start at this course on the PGA Tour.

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