LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Andalucia

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2023 Andalucia event at Valderrama Golf Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Valderrama Golf Club in San Roque, Cadiz, Spain. Real Club Valderrama has hosted several prestigious events over the years including the 1997 Ryder Cup, Andalucia Masters, Volvo Masters, Ladies Spanish Open, Open de Espana, and WGC-America Express Championship. Valderrama has consistently been ranked the number one golf course in Spain and a top 100 course in the world.

This week will mark LIV’s first ever stop in Continental Europe. Sergio Garcia, Eugenio Chacarra and David Puig are the three Spanish-born players in the field this week. Garcia spoke with media recently and expressed his excitement about the event at Valderrama, calling it “the best field that Valderrama has ever seen” and went on to say that the “fans and the course both deserve a field like this.” 15 of the 48 players in the field played in the recent U.S. Open, including fourth place finisher Cameron Smith.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf Andalucia Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Valderrama was constructed in 1974 and designed by architect Robert Trent Jones. It was acquired by James Ortiz-Patino in 1984 and the course was expanded and redesigned. Jones was brought back to help with the redesign process. The course will play as a 7010-yard par-71 this week. The fourth hole La Cascada is the signature hole on the course, it is the longest hole at Valderrama, featuring a difficult two-tiered green and a pond to the right.

While the distance isn’t going to blow anyone away, Valderrama is a challenging course. Sergio Garcia, who has had a ton of success at this course, spoke to LIV Golf’s Mike McCallister earlier this week about what it would take to win. He noted that “you have to drive the ball well” and that “you have to put the ball in the right spots. If you manage to do that, then you can score. If you don’t, it’s a grind.”

Over the past four seasons on the DP World Tour, we have seen the winner at Valderrama get to as low as -19 and as high as +2. While I don’t expect an over-par winner this week, I do think we will be looking at something single digits under par. From 2018-2020, only two players shot better than -4 over four rounds at the Andalucia Masters. Despite playing in June as opposed to the typical October tournament date, I believe Valderrama is going to want to put on a test for the viewers and players this week.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Andalucia

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Andalucia

This week I am looking for accurate players who are creative and can work their way around a course. Guys are not going to be able to overpower Valderrama and players who are inaccurate will have a difficult time keeping up. It's going to take a total package to win this week. You need to hit the ball in the right spots off the tee, shape shots, hit approaches close and have a good short game.

Sergio Garcia +1400

Winning this event would mean more to Sergio than any other player in the field. Over the past week, Garcia has described Valderrama as “love at first shot” and his “favorite course in the world.” His history here seems to back that up. In his last six appearances at Valderrama, Sergio has three wins and three additional top ten finishes. I expect the run of magnificent finishes to continue this week.

Over the past few months, we’ve seen a bit of resurgence from Sergio. Two months ago, he lost in a playoff of the LIV Singapore event to Talor Gooch. At the beginning of June, we saw him grind through qualifying to get a spot in the U.S. Open for the 24^th consecutive year. He finished T27 and didn’t shoot anything above a (+1) 71 in any of the four rounds. The 43-year-old could have coasted to retirement when he decided to join LIV, but it appears he’s still hungry to compete in the biggest events. Just this week the veteran announced that he would go through qualifying to get a spot in the Open Championship in July.

There is also the conversation of the Ryder Cup. While Sergio has already said that captain Luke Donald told him he was not going to be in consideration, the chatter hasn’t stopped. Jon Rahm lobbied for Sergio to be included at the end of May and just this week it was revealed that Sergio and Rory buried the hatchet at the U.S. Open and have become friends again. Garcia is the event’s all-time points leader and it’s hard to imagine his name being completely ignored from the conversation, especially if he can finish the next few months strong. A win at Valderrama and a decent showing at the Open Championship may spark the interest of Donald.

Braden Grace +2500

I was hoping for a better number on Grace but it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done lately. Grace has back-to-back second place LIV finishes in Tulsa and DC. He lost in a playoff of the Tulsa event to Dustin Johnson and was just one stroke back of Harold Varner last month in DC. The South African is knocking on the door and it feels like a win is right around the corner.

I like the fit for Grace at Valderrama. He’s been a much more accurate driver of the golf ball this year and as noted earlier, you need to be in position to succeed here. When he’s at his best, Grace is able to shape his shots and have the type of game needed to succeed at this course. It reminds me a bit of the style of play he displayed when winning the RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour.

Abraham Ancer+4000

Ancer has struggled so far this year in LIV events. That said, Valderrama may be the best fit we’ve had so far on the LIV schedule for Ancer. When you talk about a positional course where you need to put the ball in the right spots off the tee in order to succeed, Ancer is the profile that comes to mind. He’s probably the most accurate driver in the field this week and won’t be hurt by his distance on this course. The short positional courses are where Ancer tends to thrive, and I could see this week being similar.

The Fireballs should all be motivated this week to play well and get to the podium for their hometown captain, Sergio Garcia. Ancer’s motivation also runs a little deeper than that. With his current play, Ancer is eligible for trade or potential relegation due to his spot in the individual player rankings. While I don’t think that will happen since he has developed a good relationship with captain Sergio Garcia, the idea of that being a possibility is a bit jarring. Ancer is one of the more talented players in the LIV Golf League and after his early season win at the Saudi International, looked prime for a big season. I expect the turnaround to begin this week.

David Puig +12500

David Puig is a potential sleeper to watch this week. He finished 12^th in DC at the end of May and followed it up with a T39 at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago. Puig is originally from Spain and has said that his game is trending in the right direction and thinks that his recent driving accuracy will help him succeed here. It’s a tough ask but I’m willing to take the shot at this price.

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