Packers vs. Lions TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff

If you didn't get enough of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers last Thursday on Thanksgiving, don't worry! Week 14 features the two teams on Thursday Night Football again and there is no shortage of fantasy football assets to deploy here in this important NFC North divisional matchup.

If the Packers want any shot at catching Detroit or the Minnesota Vikings for the division lead, they will have to win this game on the road at a raucous Ford Field. Detroit, fresh off a tough win against Chicago, looks to move one step closer to locking up the one seed throughout the NFC playoffs. There are very few injuries to monitor here in this game, so we should get both teams at close to full strength.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 14 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions - 8:15 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries:

• Romeo Doubs (WR - GB) - Questionable - Concussion
• Josh Jacobs (RB - GB) - Questionable - Calf

Packers vs. Lions Matchup Breakdown

This is one of those prime-time NFL matchups you circle on your calendar when you are treated to it in Week 14. Gone are the days when this would have been a Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Tennessee Titans game this late in the season. In Week 14, we are getting a different type of Titans that will pit strength against strength in Detroit.

There’s a lot at stake on Thursday

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 2, 2024

Both Green Bay and Detroit are top-12 in the NFL in both touchdowns per game scored and fewest touchdowns per game allowed. Both of these defenses have been dominant in recent weeks. Detroit is first in the NFL with just 1.0 opponent touchdowns allowed per game and Green Bay is third at just 1.7 touchdowns allowed.

They have both been doing with a bend-don't-break style that has Detroit (first) and Green Bay (third) among the best teams in the league at stopping teams before they reach the red zone.

The question remains, then, which offense can break through and muscle its way into the end zone in these harsh defensive conditions? It should come down to which team can establish an effective running game. Both teams are top-10 this season with an identical 4.8 yards per carry and both will want to get that part of the offense going.

The team that can win in the trenches will ultimately come out on top.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)

Say one thing for Detroit's defense. It is the only team that has kept Josh Jacobs out of the end zone in the last six games. Jacobs still totaled 108 yards on 15 touches against it in Week 9, so it couldn't stop him.

Jacobs is on an unbelievable tear right now. He is playing 80% of snaps in close games and has eight touchdowns in his last six games. Even in the toughest of matchups, you trust the volume here.

Electrifying cutback and run from Josh Jacobs pic.twitter.com/f2MbquMHbp

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) November 29, 2024

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

We can put all lingering worry about the shoulder injury to rest after David Montgomery's Thanksgiving masterpiece. He compiled 119 yards on 24 touches and put to rest any concerns about his health. Montgomery also has most of the goal-line work for this Lions team.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

Even though Jahmyr Gibbs touched the ball only 11 times against Chicago, he put up 104 total yards. The Bears did a good job keeping the running backs out of the end zone on Thanksgiving, but Gibbs already has one rushing score against Green Bay this season.

Jahmyr Gibbs has faced a lot of criticism over the past few days. I want to remind those calling for his suspension that he’s the league’s 4th leading rusher. He trails 3rd place, Josh Jacobs, by just 14 yards, despite having 58 fewer carries. #OnePride
pic.twitter.com/uXe9XV364l

— Eazy (@SpeakEZsports_) December 2, 2024

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

That's now two straight games for Amon-Ra St. Brown without a touchdown after he had eight straight games with a score. These things are fluky and can come and go, but what's not fluky is the Sun God's usage. He is 11th in targets and fifth in red-zone targets among wide receivers this season.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jayden Reed (WR, GB)

Jayden Reed has emerged as Jordan Love's favorite red-zone weapon in recent weeks. He has six red-zone targets in the last three weeks, which have resulted in three touchdowns. On the season, Reed now trails only Tucker Kraft in red-zone targets among pass-catchers.

Christian Watson (WR, GB)

Christian Watson has been a roller coaster the last three games with 150, four, and 67 yards. However, he does have 18 targets in his last four games and is getting a high average depth of target, an area where Jordan Love has been mostly reliable. The one weakness in the Detroit defense is that it allows a lot of yards to opposing wide receivers.

Jordan Love (QB, GB)

Jordan Love has two games all season where he did not throw a touchdown pass and one of them was against Detroit at home in Week 9. He has five in three games since then, and Green Bay is an underdog here, so we expect him to be throwing a lot. I think Love will have a lot of volume, but Detroit is second in the league in the fewest touchdown passes allowed to quarterbacks.

Jordan Love's last four indoor games

77/112 (68.8 pct.)
1,020 yards
11 TDs
1 INT
126.3 QB rating
4-0

— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 3, 2024

Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)

The two touchdowns last week were awesome! The three catches for six yards? Not so much. LaPorta hasn't had more than three receptions or 66 yards since Week 8, proving too inconsistent to be a set-it-and-forget-it tight end in the most important regular-season week of the year.

Jameson Williams (WR, DET)

The funny thing about Jameson Williams is you like having Jameson Williams on your team. But you don't like playing Jameson Williams on your team. You get enticed when he is on your bench and catches four passes for 124 yards and a score. Then he gives you 68 and 46 yards in his next two games.

The main thing working in Williams' favor this week is that the Packers allow over 10 yards per completion this season. He is a boom-or-bust option, but we know that going in.

Jared Goff (QB, DET)

Week 9 against Green Bay was not one of Jared Goff's strongest games of the season. He threw for 145 yards and one touchdown. But he has thrown for eight touchdowns in his next four games, and at home, he averages 256 yards passing and two touchdowns per game.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)

Tucker Kraft is the toughest call in this game for me. On one hand, he is the TE9 on the season and has been mostly consistent week in and week out. On the other, the Lions allow the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends (3.5 points), and that's exactly what they did when these teams played in Green Bay in Week 9.

In that game, Kraft caught four balls for 36 yards and rushed for two yards. He did not score. I understand if he is the best option on your team and you have to pull the trigger. But I would rather have someone like Juwan Johnson, Hunter Henry, or Jonnu Smith -- all of whom are available in many leagues.

Packers QB Jordan Love on Tucker Kraft's ability to run through defenders:

"It's awesome to see. It gives everyone juice. And like we talk about, it's not fun for defenders to try to tackle him in the cold weather."

— Jason B. Hirschhorn (@by_JBH) November 29, 2024

Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson (RBs, GB)

In competitive games, Josh Jacobs plays more than 80% of snaps every time and he has at least 22 touches in four of his last five games. All other running backs for Green Bay in that span? They have 45 touches combined in five games.

Bo Melton and Dontayvion Wicks (WRs, GB)

For Bo Melton, the next time he scores four fantasy points, it will be his first time this season. Dontayvion Wicks theoretically gets more work when Romeo Doubs is out. However, he has not scored more than five fantasy points since Week 7 and he has 13 total targets in his last five games.

Tim Patrick (WR, DET)

Tim Patrick is WR102 on the season and hasn't scored more than eight fantasy points in any game this season. Even with Kalif Raymond out, he was not able to find a role, finishing with just five fantasy points on Thanksgiving.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: Detroit -3.5
Over/Under: 51.5

This is quite a high total for two teams who have been masterful on defense lately. I don't have any hesitation picking the under in this game, as the Packers should be able to contain the explosive plays from Detroit. Ultimately, however, I think Detroit's two-headed rushing attack will be too much for the Green Bay defensive line.

Over the last three weeks, no team has been able to stop Detroit on the ground. Its 11.3 rushing first downs per game is first in that span as it can just keep rotating David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, hitting defenses with thunder and lightning until they break.

For a final score, give me Detroit 27, Green Bay 21.

The Pick: Detroit -3.5, UNDER 51.5

2024 Record (including Thanksgiving games):
Spread (9-6), Over/Under (9-5-1)

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