Welcome to our Lions vs. Bucs fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em matchups analysis article for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.
Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Lions -3.0
Implied Total: Lions (22.5) vs. Buccaneers (19.5)
Pace: Lions (29th) vs. Buccaneers (22nd)
Lions Off. DVOA: 38.9% Pass (4th), 11.1% Rush (5th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (18th), -24.3% Rush (28th)
Lions Def. DVOA: -10.0% Pass (8th), -25.1% Rush (4th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -17.9% Pass (2nd), -7.8% Rush (21st)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have sustained wind but no rain, which shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Montgomery could have easily racked up another 30 carries, but they chose to shift some work to Craig Reynolds instead. Jahmyr Gibbs missing the game really didn't affect his value and his presence, and once he's back, it won't make much of a difference either. Montgomery is a must-start until proven otherwise.
With Gibbs still missing practice, it's worth noting that Reynolds is the clear No. 3 ahead of Zonovan Knight, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. The Buccaneers should put up more of a fight than the Panthers did, but receiving six to nine carries is in the cards for Reynolds in an offense that loves to pound the rock in the red zone.
UPDATE: Gibbs has been ruled out as anticipated.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
The theme of Reynolds making the most of their opportunity continues here. Jared Goff only threw the ball 28 times. Fortunately, Josh Reynolds caught four of those passes, including one for a touchdown. Kalif Raymond was also involved while Jameson Williams earned three targets, but did very little with them. It's a tougher matchup but this offense is firing on all cylinders. They're eighth in offensive EPA per play, fourth in points per game, and fourth in offensive pass DVOA. The hope is that St. Brown suits up, in which case Reynolds would be a flex option. If he's out again, then Reynolds moves into the top 36 and Raymond becomes someone to take a shot on.
UPDATE: St. Brown is cleared to play, earning him a spot in your lineup and pushing Reynolds to the flex range.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Much like Montgomery, LaPorta is now a must-start tight end. He found the end zone twice, including the play we spoke about earlier that Kittle repeated. He did pop up with a calf injury on Thursday that caused him to miss practice. It'll be worth monitoring into the weekend.
UPDATE: LaPorta is listed as questionable. It appears the injury is more significant. Even if he suits up, he might be hampered, but at the tight end position, there aren't a lot of great pivots.
Matchups We Hate
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White had 18 touches in their Week 4 outing, demonstrating his secure workload. The efficiency won't be there against Detroit, but the volume and his receiving role will keep him in the mix as a safer flex option.
Other Matchups
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
It wasn't a matchup that favored scoring through the air, but with so many short fields and red zone trips, he found the end zone three times with his arm and once with his legs. On the road against an above-average pass defense is usually a time to shy away from Goff. He's not completely off the radar because the talent surrounding him and the offensive scheme is maximizing his potential, but he'll need the touchdowns to show up.
Buccaneers WRs
Mike Evans has turned back the clock for a banner year. Unfortunately, he left their Week 4 contest with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice on Thursday. Chris Godwin, who has really been disappointing, took advantage with eight receptions for 114 yards. The Lions have been a poor matchup, so it's not wise to chase the other receivers like Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins if Evans is out, but Godwin would be a top-24 receiver on volume. He'd drop outside the top 24 if Evans is back.
UPDATE: Evans is good to go for Sunday, locking him in as a top-24 receiver.
Notable Injuries
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring)
Sam LaPorta (calf)
Mike Evans (hamstring)
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