Liam Hendriks to White Sox - Fantasy Impact

After making a big splash last offseason the White Sox with the signing of Yasmani Grandal to a four-year deal, Chicago has done it again as they signed closer Liam Hendriks to a three-year deal. The top closer on the free agent market, Hendriks will head to the South Side after establishing himself as one of the top relievers in the game and being named the 2020 American League Reliever of the Year.

Hendriks will be an instant upgrade for Chicago, as he returns to the American League Central where he began his career with the Twins in 2011. Alex Colome had served as the White Sox closer over the last two years, converting 42 of 46 save opportunities in that time. But Hendriks has not only posted a better WHIP and strikeout rate than Colome since 2019, he also proved to be more durable as he tossed 27 more innings over 16 additional appearances in that span.

This signing gives Chicago a stud closer as they look to make a deeper postseason run in 2021, and it also puts Hendriks in a great position for fantasy value. Let's take a look at what managers should expect.

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The Closer from Down Under

Hendriks has reinvented himself since his debut in 2011, going from a back-end starter to a dominant reliever. He's steadily seen an increase in his fastball velocity every year, going from a low 90s fastball up to an average velocity of 96.4 miles per hour in 2020. Relying heavily on his fastball and slider, he has watched his swinging strike rate go from 11.3 percent in 2015 — his first season pitching exclusively out of the bullpen — to a career-best 19 percent in 2020. Hendriks also recorded career-bests this season with a 65.7 percent contact rate, a 40.2 percent strikeout rate and a 3.3 percent walk rate.

Along with the strikeouts, one of the big highlights for fantasy managers who rostered Hendriks the past two seasons is his ERA and WHIP, as he has now posted back-to-back seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.000 WHIP. The good news is that according to advanced metrics, the ERA looks to be fairly legit:

But on the other hand, he might due for some regression in WHIP. The walk rate appears to be solid, but he might have been getting lucky when it comes to his batting average against. Take a look at how his batting average against and BABIP compare over the last six seasons:

From 2015 through 2018, Hendriks' BABIP lined up closely with his career .322 mark, and was on average about 73 points higher than his batting average against. But over his last two years of dominance, not only has Hendriks posted back-to-back career-lows in BABIP, they have also been on average over 100 points higher than his batting average against. Both of these suggest that Hendriks is potentially due for some regression, and this also coincides with career-highs in exit velocity (89.8 mph in 2019, 90.2 mph in 2020) and launch angle (21.1 degrees, 17.2 degrees). This doesn't necessarily mean that Hendriks is set to implode in 2021, but it is something for fantasy managers to keep an eye on when preparing for draft day.

Taking a look at his new divisional opponents, Hendriks shouldn't see too much of an effect pitching in the AL Central versus the AL West. Oakland's division rivals over the last two seasons had a combined batting average and on-base plus slugging percentage that was nearly identical to Chicago's division rivals, but Hendriks' new opponents in the AL Central did strike out at a slightly higher pace than the AL West in that span.

One last factor to take a look at before we begin to predict what to expect from Hendriks in 2021 is potential save opportunities. Last year, the White Sox finished as one of the top-10 teams in the league in save opportunities with 25 — four more than Oakland. But when you look at their numbers over the previous three non-shortened seasons, Chicago was consistently in the bottom-10 in the league in save opportunities and averaged just over 18 fewer save opportunities a season than Oakland in that timeframe. Those three years also occurred during a rebuild for Chicago, and after last season the White Sox are now likely playoff contenders. So it's possible there could be more save chances in Chicago this year, but there could still potentially be slightly fewer save opportunities for Hendriks than he had in Oakland.

2021 Outlook

There's a lot of things to consider in Hendriks' value for 2021, but the bottom line he should still be one of the top closers in fantasy. His strikeout rate should not be in doubt, and managers should expect him to continue to dominate with around 80 to 110 strikeouts this year. As we looked at before, the ERA should be fairly legit as well, so expect something likely around 1.80 to 2.20. While the walk rate should be similar to previous seasons, I still expect a slight regression in his WHIP, so plan for something still very good but probably more around a 1.10 to 1.15. And last but not least: saves. Assuming that a full season gets played managers should consider Hendriks a likely lock for at least 30 saves, and I expect him to finish somewhere between 35 and 40 saves.

While he was still a free agent, Hendriks was being taken on average as the second closer off the board behind Josh Hader with an ADP of 70.6. Now that he's with Chicago, I could see his ADP slide up a couple of slots to around 65. That seems to be a fair range to draft Hendriks based on his potential value, and given the emergence of Devin Williams in the Milwaukee bullpen, I can even see some managers giving Hendriks a look over Hader based on the potential for Williams to steal a few save opportunities down the road. It's safe to say though that Hendriks will be one of the first three or four closers drafted in the majority of formats this season, and even with some slight regression he should still be an elite closer in fantasy.

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